Hi Tim - a great read, thanks very much!
On the subject of Arsenal vs Leicester: do you have any info on when the reverse fixture is lining up to be rescheduled due to the clash with the FIFA champions cup? Cheers!
On the subject of Arsenal vs Leicester: do you have any info on when the reverse fixture is lining up to be rescheduled due to the clash with the FIFA champions cup? Cheers!
November 5, 2025 at 11:40 AM
Hi Tim - a great read, thanks very much!
On the subject of Arsenal vs Leicester: do you have any info on when the reverse fixture is lining up to be rescheduled due to the clash with the FIFA champions cup? Cheers!
On the subject of Arsenal vs Leicester: do you have any info on when the reverse fixture is lining up to be rescheduled due to the clash with the FIFA champions cup? Cheers!
Do you think Lyon might view her primarily as a long-term project to mold into that kind of box-crashing 10, perhaps to complement or eventually succeed Heaps? She's still young and might be worth a gamble on as an understudy, especially as a free?
June 3, 2025 at 3:28 PM
Do you think Lyon might view her primarily as a long-term project to mold into that kind of box-crashing 10, perhaps to complement or eventually succeed Heaps? She's still young and might be worth a gamble on as an understudy, especially as a free?
Depends on how your data is stored (and what data you're using) but I like spinning up a metabase local open source environment for poking around my databases
June 1, 2025 at 10:03 AM
Depends on how your data is stored (and what data you're using) but I like spinning up a metabase local open source environment for poking around my databases
Hi Rouven, thanks for sharing it was a very interesting read. I'd be interesting in looking to extend your ANS model to incorporate it into my WSL model if you'd please be willing to share the code?
April 17, 2025 at 12:56 PM
Hi Rouven, thanks for sharing it was a very interesting read. I'd be interesting in looking to extend your ANS model to incorporate it into my WSL model if you'd please be willing to share the code?
Oh so I'm way off with hopes of a surprise start tomorrow? 😅
April 14, 2025 at 4:32 PM
Oh so I'm way off with hopes of a surprise start tomorrow? 😅
Thanks, Tim!
Disappointed to see no official word on Russo & Kelly - do you have any info / best guess on when we might expect to see them next?
Disappointed to see no official word on Russo & Kelly - do you have any info / best guess on when we might expect to see them next?
April 14, 2025 at 2:43 PM
Thanks, Tim!
Disappointed to see no official word on Russo & Kelly - do you have any info / best guess on when we might expect to see them next?
Disappointed to see no official word on Russo & Kelly - do you have any info / best guess on when we might expect to see them next?
Yeah that's in there. I reckon the issue is probably how I'm handling quarter and whole goal spreads and totals. Thanks very much for your help!
April 10, 2025 at 9:48 AM
Yeah that's in there. I reckon the issue is probably how I'm handling quarter and whole goal spreads and totals. Thanks very much for your help!
To clarify: I'm optimizing to find λH and λA such that:
1) 1-Poisson.cdf(total, λH+λA) = over probability
2) Skellam.cdf(handicap, λA, λH) = probability of home covering
1) 1-Poisson.cdf(total, λH+λA) = over probability
2) Skellam.cdf(handicap, λA, λH) = probability of home covering
April 10, 2025 at 8:27 AM
To clarify: I'm optimizing to find λH and λA such that:
1) 1-Poisson.cdf(total, λH+λA) = over probability
2) Skellam.cdf(handicap, λA, λH) = probability of home covering
1) 1-Poisson.cdf(total, λH+λA) = over probability
2) Skellam.cdf(handicap, λA, λH) = probability of home covering
Yeah I think that's pretty much I what I had. Thanks for confirming - back to the drawing board for me I suppose!
April 10, 2025 at 8:20 AM
Yeah I think that's pretty much I what I had. Thanks for confirming - back to the drawing board for me I suppose!
Hi Nils, please can I ask how you derive your goal estimates from the handicap and goal lines? I'm trying to get it by inverting the poisson and skellam distributions but my subsequent models don't seem to fit very well.
April 9, 2025 at 3:18 PM
Hi Nils, please can I ask how you derive your goal estimates from the handicap and goal lines? I'm trying to get it by inverting the poisson and skellam distributions but my subsequent models don't seem to fit very well.
Gameweek 32
We cross 1 mil together
Hand in hand, we rise
We cross 1 mil together
Hand in hand, we rise
April 8, 2025 at 11:29 AM
Gameweek 32
We cross 1 mil together
Hand in hand, we rise
We cross 1 mil together
Hand in hand, we rise
10's a bit high. I don't have the data in front of me but I think there's often a 7-8 pointer up for grabs
April 4, 2025 at 1:57 PM
10's a bit high. I don't have the data in front of me but I think there's often a 7-8 pointer up for grabs
Best guesses for where the champions league clashing WSL fixtures will be rearranged to?
March 31, 2025 at 5:06 PM
Best guesses for where the champions league clashing WSL fixtures will be rearranged to?
Is McCabe suspended for Palace for a 5th yellow or does whatever happened against Chelsea not count as a yellow? Cheers 😃
March 29, 2025 at 9:58 AM
Is McCabe suspended for Palace for a 5th yellow or does whatever happened against Chelsea not count as a yellow? Cheers 😃
this is unusual 😂 my friend found your Transfer Flow newsletter and she keepss telling me about your Variance Betting returns. she's too worried to dm u so pls can you message her? don't tell her I sent this or she will kill me lmao 😭 she really wants to know how to break into football analytics
March 28, 2025 at 10:38 AM
this is unusual 😂 my friend found your Transfer Flow newsletter and she keepss telling me about your Variance Betting returns. she's too worried to dm u so pls can you message her? don't tell her I sent this or she will kill me lmao 😭 she really wants to know how to break into football analytics
Not dating app related but perhaps something you might want to cover - how can I share this podcast series with my friends to attempt to improve our relationship (like in ep.0) or to wean them off the redpill pipeline and improve their dating without saying: "I think you suck and this will fix you"
March 19, 2025 at 12:05 PM
Not dating app related but perhaps something you might want to cover - how can I share this podcast series with my friends to attempt to improve our relationship (like in ep.0) or to wean them off the redpill pipeline and improve their dating without saying: "I think you suck and this will fix you"
No of course there isn't 😂 You're welcome to lift my table calculation part from my simulator if what you're doing is python based. Just DM and I'll point you to it ☺️
February 24, 2025 at 2:19 PM
No of course there isn't 😂 You're welcome to lift my table calculation part from my simulator if what you're doing is python based. Just DM and I'll point you to it ☺️