I think the post 11/5/24 answer to any question that starts with those four words is “yes”. The real uncertainty is what happens when he doesn’t get the results he expects. In a similar 2019 case with Mexico, he claimed a deal was done and walked back from the brink. But now? I don’t know.

This was entirely predictable, and in fact previewed by Trump long before the election, but oil industry enthusiasm for him seemed genuine. Are leases and deregulation (both reversible in 4 years) worth more than losing major export markets and dealing with other business costs of trade wars?