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grumpyunclesean.bsky.social
GrumpyUncleSean🔥
@grumpyunclesean.bsky.social
5.5K followers 740 following 700 posts
Research scientist | public land owner | facial hair enthusiast. Science interests: #Wildfire #Forests #GlobalChange
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grumpyunclesean.bsky.social
According to supplemental figure 4 of this paper (www.nature.com/articles/s41...), here's the 1748 pattern (top-right panel). 🔥🧪🌍
Figure S4. Percent of sites recording fire that burned in 1652 (a), 1748 (b), 1800 (c), 1855 (d), 2011 (e), and 2021 (f). These correspond to the years in which the highest average percent of sites burned within hexels in the historical (1600-1880; a-d) and contemporary (1984-2022; e-f) time periods (refer to Fig. 2b). Historically, fires in particularly active fire years were generally widespread across the study area. In 2011, however, fire was more localized and concentrated in the south-central United States (e), and in 2021, most fire occurred in the Pacific Northwest, with a few additional hexels recording fire elsewhere (f). Overall, fire in particularly active historical fire years was spatially more widespread and ubiquitous compared to contemporary active fire years
September 4, 2025 at 2:54 AM
grumpyunclesean.bsky.social
Not a key finding, but an interesting corroboration of our findings (see supplemental material):
Our results are totally in line with those of Peterson et al. (2024; doi.org/10.1073/pnas...)

6/6
Visual narrative shows how our results compare to the site sampled by Pederson et al. (2024). Aerial image of the receding glacial ice and the site sampled by Pederson et al. (2024) (a). Map shows the whitebark pine (WBP) climatic suitability in the vicinity of the site sampled by Pederson et al. (2025), with the exact site shown as a black dot under reference period (b) and mid-21st century climate (c). Inset in panel (b) shows the location of panels (b) and (c) in northwest Wyoming in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem.
September 2, 2025 at 5:10 PM
grumpyunclesean.bsky.social
We also used a cool moving window regression to account for variable WBP-climate relationships across the study area

This means each 220 m pixel has its own model. We built over 20 million models!

Model skill was high: average AUC was 0.875 and the commission/omission error rates were 6%/14%

5/6
Examples illustrating the relationships between WBP climatic suitability and each of the four variables used in the models. The map shows climatic suitability under reference period climate (1961–1990) and the locations of six pixels (a), each with its own model and corresponding relationships (b)–(g). The y-axes represent the probability of suitability as predicted by the logistic regression model for the pixel. For each pixel, variables with higher relative importance (RI) indicate those with the strongest influence on WBP climatic suitability.
September 2, 2025 at 5:10 PM
grumpyunclesean.bsky.social
Key finding #2:
75% of the climatically suitable area for WBP under mid-21st century climate is located in designated wilderness areas and national parks. This could challenge WBP recovery efforts, as these protected areas strive to reduce human manipulation of ecological systems.

3/6
Maps showing areas of expansion (leading edge), no change (or stable), and contraction (trailing edge) in terms of areas climatically suitable for WBP for the study area (a), the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (b), and the Sierra Nevada (c). These were produced by subtracting the reference period binary classification (figure 3(c)) from the mid-21st century binary classification (figure 3(d)). Modeled change in WBP climatic suitability between the mid-21st century and the reference period (figure 3(b) versus (a)) along a gradient of reference period Tmax is illustrated by the solid descending line in (d). This shows that most of the reduction in reference period WBP climatic suitability (i.e. the trailing edge) occurs where reference period Tmax ranges from 18 °C to 22 °C. This is intended to serve as a broad interpretation, as this relationship varies across the analysis area given that we used moving window regression to conduct our study. The histogram in (d) shows the statistical distribution of reference period Tmax for pixels that are considered climatically suitable (probability ⩾ 0.5) in either time period.
September 2, 2025 at 5:10 PM
grumpyunclesean.bsky.social
Key finding #1:
We projected an 80% reduction in the area climatically suitable for WBP in the United States by the mid-21st century.

2/6
Maps showing the continuous ((a), (b)) and binary ((c), (d)) climatic suitability for WBP under the reference period (1961–1990) ((a), (c)) and mid-21st century climate ((b), (d)). The semi-transparent region is outside the study area and was modeled for discussion purposes (see Discussion); these areas are not included in any of our other results.
September 2, 2025 at 5:10 PM
grumpyunclesean.bsky.social
Plus, here’s the bear we saw while paddleboarding
September 2, 2025 at 2:42 AM
grumpyunclesean.bsky.social
#GlacierNationalPark
#PublicLandsRock
September 2, 2025 at 2:37 AM
grumpyunclesean.bsky.social
😱😱😱😱
August 26, 2025 at 5:26 AM
grumpyunclesean.bsky.social
3/4
Key point #2: Strong links to intensifying climate aridity portend ongoing forest area burned and area burned severely.
August 21, 2025 at 6:32 PM
grumpyunclesean.bsky.social
2/4
Key point #1: In addition to the rapid expansion of fire size and annual area burned in the western US since 1985, fires have become more severe, with greater impacts and long-term consequences to forest ecosystems
August 21, 2025 at 6:32 PM
grumpyunclesean.bsky.social
#FireScarFriday
Very old fire-scarred stump. The astute observer will notice two whitetail deer in the background. 🔥
August 1, 2025 at 7:31 PM
grumpyunclesean.bsky.social
Fixed it.
June 25, 2025 at 4:57 AM
grumpyunclesean.bsky.social
#FireScarFriday

Teresa Hollingsworth (RIP) and I in front of a fire-scarred Douglas fir in the Axolotl Lakes Wilderness Study Area in SW Montana
June 21, 2025 at 3:59 AM
grumpyunclesean.bsky.social
Here is a turtle (okay, it's really a tortoise) i saw a couple of months ago in southern Georgia
June 21, 2025 at 3:20 AM
grumpyunclesean.bsky.social
Here's a turtle (okay, it's a tortoise) I saw in southern Georgia a couple of months ago
June 21, 2025 at 3:18 AM
grumpyunclesean.bsky.social
Belated #FireScarFriday post.

I saw some cool fire-scarred trees, snags, and stumps on my mtn bike ride today.

Those two snags have 6+ fire scars each. 🔥
Live fire-scarred western larch Snags with 7 visible fire scars Snags with 6 visible fire scars Stump with 2 visible fire scars
May 24, 2025 at 10:25 PM
grumpyunclesean.bsky.social
Pro tip: When you are shopping at a grocery store while traveling, and the grocery store requires some stupid-ass membership to get the sale price, this phone number usually works --- local area code + 867 + 5309
May 18, 2025 at 1:32 AM
grumpyunclesean.bsky.social
#FireScarFriday

Fire-scarred western red cedar trees as seen while biking (on a Friday) in #GlacierNationalPark two weeks ago.

Plus a bad picture of a mama black bear with cubs!
May 16, 2025 at 5:09 PM
grumpyunclesean.bsky.social
Enjoy your #PublicLands while you still can (before the Trump administration sells them off)
May 9, 2025 at 9:58 PM
grumpyunclesean.bsky.social
#FireScarFriday

Me and the amazing Crystal Raymond posing in front of a fire-scarred incense cedar in the Lake Tahoe basin. 🔥
May 9, 2025 at 8:54 PM
grumpyunclesean.bsky.social
I will never not find this funny.

#FireScarFriday 🔥
April 25, 2025 at 1:25 PM
grumpyunclesean.bsky.social
Must be the season of the chicks ... 🐤
April 11, 2025 at 10:51 PM
grumpyunclesean.bsky.social
#FireScarFriday
See this little guy? This little guy has five visible fire scars!

As observed in the Mica Mountain Wilderness, Saguaro NP, Arizona.

Stay strong, y'all!
April 11, 2025 at 9:55 PM
grumpyunclesean.bsky.social
#FireScarFriday

Here are some pics of fire-scarred trees from Tall Timbers Research Station in Northern Florida. Tall Timbers land is burned every 1.8 years, on average. Incredible! 🔥
April 4, 2025 at 12:55 PM
grumpyunclesean.bsky.social
Post a warning
March 24, 2025 at 4:24 AM