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gregrussell57.bsky.social
@gregrussell57.bsky.social
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Aurora Forecast Update for 2025-02-13T05:40:06Z

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2025 Feb 13 0534 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0300-0600 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
Additional Details Here.
Space Weather Message Code: ALTK04 Serial Number: 2526 Issue Time: 2025 Feb 13 0537 UTC ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 Threshold Reached: 2025 Feb 13 0534 UTC Synoptic Period: 0300-0600 UTC Active Warning: Yes NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur. Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska. :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2025 Feb 13 0030 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 13-Feb 15 2025 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale G1). NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 13-Feb 15 2025 Feb 13 Feb 14 Feb 15 00-03UT 3.67 3.33 2.33 03-06UT 3.33 2.00 2.00 06-09UT 2.67 2.00 2.67 09-12UT 2.67 3.00 2.33 12-15UT 3.33 3.00 2.33 15-18UT 3.33 3.00 2.33 18-21UT 3.67 3.33 2.33 21-00UT 4.67 (G1) 4.00 2.67 Rationale: G1 (Minor) storm periods are likely on 13 Feb due to onset of a subsequent negative polarity CH HSS. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 13-Feb 15 2025 Feb 13 Feb 14 Feb 15 S1 or greater 5% 1% 1% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 13-Feb 15 2025 Feb 13 Feb 14 Feb 15 R1-R2 40% 40% 40% R3 or greater 5% 5% 5% Rationale: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) activity on 13-15 Feb. Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood. Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.
February 13, 2025 at 5:40 AM
gregrussell57.bsky.social
Mini wooden puzzle and coffee night, one way I temporarily escape the craziness happening in our country for a little while. RESIST!
February 7, 2025 at 6:56 AM
gregrussell57.bsky.social
Full day of sewing and turning dogbooties. The work space looks very different after the mail run. Dogbooties.com
February 1, 2025 at 5:10 AM
gregrussell57.bsky.social
Fresh start. On the Blue Sky learning curve with positive expectations. Be kind, peace to all. And one question, what books are you reading these days? I’ve been enjoying Kurt Vonnegut novels again.
January 20, 2025 at 3:59 AM