Gregor Macdonald
@gregor.us
Journalist covering cities, climate, and energy.
Proprietor of Cold Eye Earth (formerly The Gregor Letter)
https://www.coldeye.earth | @coldeye.earth
Proprietor of Cold Eye Earth (formerly The Gregor Letter)
https://www.coldeye.earth | @coldeye.earth
Quite an active courtroom evening shaping up here in Portland.
October 6, 2025 at 1:37 AM
Quite an active courtroom evening shaping up here in Portland.
When charts become popular on social media they tend to transform into collection bins for everyone's priors. This one is fully loaded now, piled high with explanations.
I am cautious.
I am cautious.
August 6, 2025 at 8:40 PM
When charts become popular on social media they tend to transform into collection bins for everyone's priors. This one is fully loaded now, piled high with explanations.
I am cautious.
I am cautious.
EU wind and solar generation growth last year exceeded total demand growth: 60.5 TWh vs 53.1 TWh. All good. However, this is colored by the unfortunate fact that EU industrial production is currently in a downtrend.
www.coldeye.earth/p/next-steps
www.coldeye.earth/p/next-steps
August 5, 2025 at 5:39 PM
EU wind and solar generation growth last year exceeded total demand growth: 60.5 TWh vs 53.1 TWh. All good. However, this is colored by the unfortunate fact that EU industrial production is currently in a downtrend.
www.coldeye.earth/p/next-steps
www.coldeye.earth/p/next-steps
Truly enjoyed this year's Tour de France, and here's a terrific photo set from @theathletic.com with the perfect shot of the final stage: Pogacar on the cobbled climb to Montmartre.
www.nytimes.com/athletic/651...
www.nytimes.com/athletic/651...
August 3, 2025 at 5:00 PM
Truly enjoyed this year's Tour de France, and here's a terrific photo set from @theathletic.com with the perfect shot of the final stage: Pogacar on the cobbled climb to Montmartre.
www.nytimes.com/athletic/651...
www.nytimes.com/athletic/651...
I did not fully comprehend until today how much the administration believes it is winning on trade.
Needless to say, Trump is not winning on trade. Not even a little. To win something, you must either have an absolute or a net gain. No there, there.
Needless to say, Trump is not winning on trade. Not even a little. To win something, you must either have an absolute or a net gain. No there, there.
July 30, 2025 at 7:40 PM
I did not fully comprehend until today how much the administration believes it is winning on trade.
Needless to say, Trump is not winning on trade. Not even a little. To win something, you must either have an absolute or a net gain. No there, there.
Needless to say, Trump is not winning on trade. Not even a little. To win something, you must either have an absolute or a net gain. No there, there.
Last year, 50% of new global demand for electricity was met by wind and solar. Half empty/half full kind of statistic, for sure.
I made up a table for this week's issue of @coldeye.earth showing this same metric of wind+solar coverage for the US, China, and EU vs total demand growth. 🔌💡
I made up a table for this week's issue of @coldeye.earth showing this same metric of wind+solar coverage for the US, China, and EU vs total demand growth. 🔌💡
July 22, 2025 at 8:41 PM
Last year, 50% of new global demand for electricity was met by wind and solar. Half empty/half full kind of statistic, for sure.
I made up a table for this week's issue of @coldeye.earth showing this same metric of wind+solar coverage for the US, China, and EU vs total demand growth. 🔌💡
I made up a table for this week's issue of @coldeye.earth showing this same metric of wind+solar coverage for the US, China, and EU vs total demand growth. 🔌💡
Here's the latest Attractive Nuisance chart from @ember-energy.org which 1. makes a cause and effect claim which 2. relies on an extremely short data series.
As long time China watchers understand, volatility in coal capacity factors has long been a trap for analysis, and this steps right into it.
As long time China watchers understand, volatility in coal capacity factors has long been a trap for analysis, and this steps right into it.
July 12, 2025 at 7:33 PM
Here's the latest Attractive Nuisance chart from @ember-energy.org which 1. makes a cause and effect claim which 2. relies on an extremely short data series.
As long time China watchers understand, volatility in coal capacity factors has long been a trap for analysis, and this steps right into it.
As long time China watchers understand, volatility in coal capacity factors has long been a trap for analysis, and this steps right into it.
Here's what I wrote about that chart, when the folks at Ember offered it up to me over at Substack. Just to say, this short-dated CF picture is precisely the kind of fluctuation that's normal for China - weather, wind and solar growth, macroeconomic - all play the volatility role. Fakeouts galore.
July 10, 2025 at 6:35 PM
Here's what I wrote about that chart, when the folks at Ember offered it up to me over at Substack. Just to say, this short-dated CF picture is precisely the kind of fluctuation that's normal for China - weather, wind and solar growth, macroeconomic - all play the volatility role. Fakeouts galore.
From my February 2025 newsletter, on the new problem of above average growth in total global power demand: www.coldeye.earth/p/downside-o...
June 27, 2025 at 1:27 AM
From my February 2025 newsletter, on the new problem of above average growth in total global power demand: www.coldeye.earth/p/downside-o...
A fine summation here from @ozkaterji.bsky.social
June 24, 2025 at 3:35 PM
A fine summation here from @ozkaterji.bsky.social
If the US established a contractual payment for services rendered with El Salvador, kinda makes it hard to claim that the party to that contract, the US, has no means by which to return Garcia to the US.
Just now in Boasberg's courtroom:
Just now in Boasberg's courtroom:
May 7, 2025 at 9:41 PM
If the US established a contractual payment for services rendered with El Salvador, kinda makes it hard to claim that the party to that contract, the US, has no means by which to return Garcia to the US.
Just now in Boasberg's courtroom:
Just now in Boasberg's courtroom:
As someone who married a foreign national, brought her to the US, and had children together, I've thought alot about Albrego Garcia's spouse these past weeks.
My personal view is that we US citizens who are married to immigrants have some standing; our rights are at stake also.
My personal view is that we US citizens who are married to immigrants have some standing; our rights are at stake also.
April 23, 2025 at 1:06 AM
As someone who married a foreign national, brought her to the US, and had children together, I've thought alot about Albrego Garcia's spouse these past weeks.
My personal view is that we US citizens who are married to immigrants have some standing; our rights are at stake also.
My personal view is that we US citizens who are married to immigrants have some standing; our rights are at stake also.
From my 14 April newsletter, on capital flight:
April 21, 2025 at 6:29 PM
From my 14 April newsletter, on capital flight:
IEA 2022: The era of natural gas growth is coming to an end.
IEA 2025: Natural gas saw the strongest increase in demand among fossil fuels in 2024. Gas demand rose by 115 billion cubic metres (bcm), or 2.7%, compared with an average of around 75 bcm annually over the past decade. #energysky
IEA 2025: Natural gas saw the strongest increase in demand among fossil fuels in 2024. Gas demand rose by 115 billion cubic metres (bcm), or 2.7%, compared with an average of around 75 bcm annually over the past decade. #energysky
April 20, 2025 at 8:42 PM
IEA 2022: The era of natural gas growth is coming to an end.
IEA 2025: Natural gas saw the strongest increase in demand among fossil fuels in 2024. Gas demand rose by 115 billion cubic metres (bcm), or 2.7%, compared with an average of around 75 bcm annually over the past decade. #energysky
IEA 2025: Natural gas saw the strongest increase in demand among fossil fuels in 2024. Gas demand rose by 115 billion cubic metres (bcm), or 2.7%, compared with an average of around 75 bcm annually over the past decade. #energysky
... would want to open new productive capacity in the US is absurd—to the point of tragedy." #econsky
www.coldeye.earth/p/ricardo-in...
www.coldeye.earth/p/ricardo-in...
April 15, 2025 at 2:22 PM
... would want to open new productive capacity in the US is absurd—to the point of tragedy." #econsky
www.coldeye.earth/p/ricardo-in...
www.coldeye.earth/p/ricardo-in...
Anecdata: a friend calls to say he's thinking of coming out to Portland with his bike, and cannot believe how cheap the hotel prices are right now.
Me: Well that's great for you, but not for Portland, as we tend to get a rush of European tourists starting now. Oops.
Me: Well that's great for you, but not for Portland, as we tend to get a rush of European tourists starting now. Oops.
April 13, 2025 at 6:44 PM
Anecdata: a friend calls to say he's thinking of coming out to Portland with his bike, and cannot believe how cheap the hotel prices are right now.
Me: Well that's great for you, but not for Portland, as we tend to get a rush of European tourists starting now. Oops.
Me: Well that's great for you, but not for Portland, as we tend to get a rush of European tourists starting now. Oops.
More on the size of the shock so far.
April 6, 2025 at 8:21 PM
More on the size of the shock so far.
Just one current estimate of the wealth shock (there will be many of these estimates)
April 6, 2025 at 6:58 PM
Just one current estimate of the wealth shock (there will be many of these estimates)
April 4, 2025 at 5:41 PM
Adding: I want to know what your current position is, so that I can react to it.
To get that started, here is a decent summary of my current view (from my newsletter):
To get that started, here is a decent summary of my current view (from my newsletter):
April 3, 2025 at 6:53 PM
Adding: I want to know what your current position is, so that I can react to it.
To get that started, here is a decent summary of my current view (from my newsletter):
To get that started, here is a decent summary of my current view (from my newsletter):