On the other hand, Geelong won by 7 points, right on the line, so they and Hawthorn barely shifted at all. One of the few things GRAFT got right as it only hit 5 out of 9 for Round 6.

That Brisbane are rated so closely to the Saints has a lot to do with the heavy loss to Collingwood. I didn't do the round 6 recap but the Pies gained a lot last Thursday, both in the ratings and in the projections where they're nearly 50% to finish first.

I should explain Brisbane v St Kilda - the line is actually 0.2 points in favour of the Lions, since they're 12.2 GRAFT points above the Saints, and with St Kilda at home getting the 12pt HGA, that puts the game in 50/50 according to the system.

Amartey out for Swans but they have a like-for-like replacement in Logan McDonald.
For Easter Monday, Cats should have Tom Stewart in while Hawks have Scrimshaw back, and MacDonald and Nash pending fitness tests.
Richmond could bring Balta back but it wouldn't be a good look considering...

Another tricky round to pick? Always worth looking at the ins and outs as the teams are announced. Kai Lohmann is a possible inclusion for the Lions and De Goey in for the Pies. The Bont MAY be back for the Bulldogs (they may choose to play that safe tho).

As usual the accessible tables and the game calculations are at graftratings.com/afl/

Collingwood now leads a blanket field in the projections, with six teams finishing 10%+ in first place. Melbourne, on the other hand, have fallen well away. At 0-5 they could repeat Hawks' efforts from last year to make the finals - on paper they have the players - but it's 2025, not 2021.

The biggest swing went to Collingwood as they shook off Sydney, although it was looking that way last night with Port taking a decisive lead early before the Hawks clawed it back a little. Geelong over Adelaide was the other result GRAFT missed. 6/9 - not great, not terrible.

Neutral territory for all but the SA teams, although even with the 12pt HGA, Hawthorn has the smallest of edges over Port on Sunday night (caveats about Day's injury news etc.) Hawthorn, by the way, played four games at Adelaide Oval last year but we know how the two against Port went...

A whole bunch of 50/50 games, although in some cases the ratings might be lagging. Up to you to work out which. So aside from the three games involving the bottom ranked teams - actually, Carlton's match against West Coast is iffy. I expect them to win but if they don't... well.

Accessible tables at graftratings.com/afl/

Moving onto the projections, we have 11 teams > 10% on sims to make the finals at the moment, while Melbourne are starting to look in danger of entering the spoon sweepstakes. I'll look at Gather Round later in the week.

As for the rest, Power vs Saints is the head-scratcher for me. I'm probably leaning on home ground advantage for Port Adelaide but it wouldn't utterly surprise me if St Kilda ground out a win here.

Gold Coast v Adelaide is another interesting game, if only because they've both been beating up bad teams so far, so this is an good chance to measure the hype.
Fremantle need to light the wick quick smart but the Doggies have been solid so far despite key outs, so another crucial game there.

More interesting games coming up. Obviously the is up first. Pies look steady now while the Blues have ... problems. Which is the perfect scenario for Carlton to come good in front of 80 thou plus. If they've got the fuel tickets for the last quarter. I am doubtful.

Sydney are now ranked top on GRAFT despite having the weekend off. It seems weird given they're 1-2 but those two Ls were against Hawthorn and Brisbane, whom both look steady at 2nd and 3rd in the rankings. Geelong, GWS and Adelaide also under that top blanket. Doggies, Suns and Pies not far behind.

The biggest swing was of course to the Suns but the second biggest was to St Kilda who pulled away from Richmond after HT. Elsewhere, results were more or less as expected, although Saturday night was interesting, both "home" teams clawing back from slow starts and fighting the weather.