The roof, the roof, the roof is on fire

www.youtube.com/watch?v=e2cj...

We need better tools for dealing with such situations. The current all-or-nothing approach serves no one well, especially the civilians who suffer in the grey zones. Here’s hoping that Syrians do not get stuck in the same limbo that afflicts Afghans. /end

Sadly, the so-called international system is not built for this. Sanctions are crude instruments. States tend to fall into “with us” or “against us” categories, with few options in between. 32/

I’ve been sending copies of the UN independent assessment of Afghanistan to colleagues who work on Syria, because it reads like a checklist of the many ways the new regime in Damascus might struggle to restore functional relations with the world 31/
unama.unmissions.org/sites/defaul...

Sixth, more broadly, there’s a bunch of connectivity issues: civil aviation, telecommunications, customs integration, border security, etc. The Taliban case shows how hard it is for rebel groups to plug into global systems. 30/

Fifth, Syria needs to rebuild -- but World Bank and IMF programs can be difficult in these settings. Afghanistan got a “yes” vote from the Bank board for an electricity project earlier this year, but most infrastructure funding has been halted since 2021. www.worldbank.org/en/news/pres...
29/

Fourth, Syria's sticky web of pre-existing sanctions will likely continue to affect the banking and financial sectors. In Afghanistan, businesses still have trouble with wire transfers for basic transactions such as importing food and medicines. 28/

Third, we don't know how Syria's UN representation will play out. The Taliban still haven't taken Afghanistan's seat at the General Assembly, and UN-led normalization talks have been plagued by contentious politics (mostly over the Taliban’s awful treatment of women). 27/

Second, the central bank of Syria may have trouble meeting AML/CFT requirements if the decider of new appointments at the institution is a listed terrorist with a $10m bounty on his head. Syria was already under scrutiny by the FATF. 26/ www.fatf-gafi.org/en/countries...

First, it's unclear whether central bank assets belonging to Syria might become an issue like Afghanistan's frozen reserves. The Taliban lost access to $9.5B in overseas accounts, crippling monetary policy. 25/

In the meantime, it’s possible that the interim government in Syria will face some of the other issues that troubled the Taliban in recent years. These are speculative, but worth mentioning. 24/

Complete removal of the UN sanctions on HTS or the Taliban would require a broader political understanding with the permanent members of the Security Council. Unilateral sanctions will need separate negotiations. 23/