@godot411.bsky.social
1) growth is annualized. Its up 1.1% unann
2) theory, GDP=GDI, but GDI (income) was up less: 2.4%ar, 0.6% unann
3) GDI is income by all means of production. Disposable income to households up 0.7%unann
4) prices also up so real DPI up 0.25%unann
5) distribution matters, means not “all” got this.
2) theory, GDP=GDI, but GDI (income) was up less: 2.4%ar, 0.6% unann
3) GDI is income by all means of production. Disposable income to households up 0.7%unann
4) prices also up so real DPI up 0.25%unann
5) distribution matters, means not “all” got this.
December 24, 2025 at 3:45 PM
1) growth is annualized. Its up 1.1% unann
2) theory, GDP=GDI, but GDI (income) was up less: 2.4%ar, 0.6% unann
3) GDI is income by all means of production. Disposable income to households up 0.7%unann
4) prices also up so real DPI up 0.25%unann
5) distribution matters, means not “all” got this.
2) theory, GDP=GDI, but GDI (income) was up less: 2.4%ar, 0.6% unann
3) GDI is income by all means of production. Disposable income to households up 0.7%unann
4) prices also up so real DPI up 0.25%unann
5) distribution matters, means not “all” got this.
30% of basket flatlined because lack of data. Will bounce back when new price levels added back to the 2m sample in
Dec, 3m sample in Jan, and 6m sample in April. Close to zero signal in today’s CPI. Move along, nothing to see (The Fed will ignore).
Dec, 3m sample in Jan, and 6m sample in April. Close to zero signal in today’s CPI. Move along, nothing to see (The Fed will ignore).
December 18, 2025 at 2:23 PM
30% of basket flatlined because lack of data. Will bounce back when new price levels added back to the 2m sample in
Dec, 3m sample in Jan, and 6m sample in April. Close to zero signal in today’s CPI. Move along, nothing to see (The Fed will ignore).
Dec, 3m sample in Jan, and 6m sample in April. Close to zero signal in today’s CPI. Move along, nothing to see (The Fed will ignore).
I appreciate the sentiment but the consensus from all analyses suggests Gore would have won under any fair counting criteria, if not for SCOTUS stopping the Florida count, contrary to its prior steadfast states-rights belief. A true travesty to our democracy. Forever a stain on SCOTUS.
December 13, 2025 at 5:07 PM
I appreciate the sentiment but the consensus from all analyses suggests Gore would have won under any fair counting criteria, if not for SCOTUS stopping the Florida count, contrary to its prior steadfast states-rights belief. A true travesty to our democracy. Forever a stain on SCOTUS.
Recession or not is important. But don’t let the know-nothings declare victory absent recession. The long run costs of these terrible policies (years of diminished growth and lost leadership in the world) will far far (far!) outweigh any near term downturn. Just ask UK about Brexit.
November 22, 2025 at 12:00 AM
Recession or not is important. But don’t let the know-nothings declare victory absent recession. The long run costs of these terrible policies (years of diminished growth and lost leadership in the world) will far far (far!) outweigh any near term downturn. Just ask UK about Brexit.
Inflation was 2.4%oya in Sept 2024. It is now 3.0%oya as of this Sept (last reported). Inflation is complicated, fine. But the repeated lying about facts is so nauseating. And from what used to be a reasonable economist like Hassett, whom I knew. What a total disgrace that sold his soul for power.
November 17, 2025 at 12:43 AM
Inflation was 2.4%oya in Sept 2024. It is now 3.0%oya as of this Sept (last reported). Inflation is complicated, fine. But the repeated lying about facts is so nauseating. And from what used to be a reasonable economist like Hassett, whom I knew. What a total disgrace that sold his soul for power.
Liberation day was an announcement. Reciprocal tariffs enacted in August. Prices still rising. Businesses have yet to fully pass through. Immigration drags building. Job growth stalled. Layoffs on the rise. Sentiment depressed. Not out of woods yet. Maybe get there, but not yet.
November 16, 2025 at 12:13 PM
Liberation day was an announcement. Reciprocal tariffs enacted in August. Prices still rising. Businesses have yet to fully pass through. Immigration drags building. Job growth stalled. Layoffs on the rise. Sentiment depressed. Not out of woods yet. Maybe get there, but not yet.
And Asia-ex-China exports to the US booming. Hint: Transshipments
November 14, 2025 at 12:13 PM
And Asia-ex-China exports to the US booming. Hint: Transshipments
Over year ago core CPI is 3% (5th year of above target!). %chg over 3 months (ar) is 3.6%. Core goods running 3% over last 3 months. And 3 month % chg in super core (service ex housing) is 4.6%. Tell more about this “progress”.
November 11, 2025 at 1:34 PM
Over year ago core CPI is 3% (5th year of above target!). %chg over 3 months (ar) is 3.6%. Core goods running 3% over last 3 months. And 3 month % chg in super core (service ex housing) is 4.6%. Tell more about this “progress”.
Far, far more importantly, a tariff dividend will have simply redistributed away from those that paid the tax: middle/low income and small businesses and spread to those that didn’t pay most. A tariff is a consumption tax. Consumption taxes are regressive.
November 9, 2025 at 2:16 PM
Far, far more importantly, a tariff dividend will have simply redistributed away from those that paid the tax: middle/low income and small businesses and spread to those that didn’t pay most. A tariff is a consumption tax. Consumption taxes are regressive.
Don’t understand this figure. The hyperscalers alone have already invested over $500bn in the past 2 years. Thats 1.7% of GDP and does not include the whole AI investment industry. Something not right in GS calculations.
October 21, 2025 at 10:59 AM
Don’t understand this figure. The hyperscalers alone have already invested over $500bn in the past 2 years. Thats 1.7% of GDP and does not include the whole AI investment industry. Something not right in GS calculations.
I do this for a living and have read Greg for a long time. This is hands down the most off-mark article he has ever written. Recession risks are far higher this year than last year given the huge fiscal policy shocks. The Fed cut is reacting to this and built into ex-ante risks. They don’t change.
September 18, 2025 at 10:22 AM
I do this for a living and have read Greg for a long time. This is hands down the most off-mark article he has ever written. Recession risks are far higher this year than last year given the huge fiscal policy shocks. The Fed cut is reacting to this and built into ex-ante risks. They don’t change.
Not “reality” but “translation”. Both are true. Tariffs are a tax…a consumption tax that raises revenue. They are also regressive in that lower income pay larger share because they save less than rich. It is a regressive tax to help (partially) pay for the regressive income tax cut for the rich.
August 22, 2025 at 10:30 PM
Not “reality” but “translation”. Both are true. Tariffs are a tax…a consumption tax that raises revenue. They are also regressive in that lower income pay larger share because they save less than rich. It is a regressive tax to help (partially) pay for the regressive income tax cut for the rich.
Senor Atlas Shrugged
August 1, 2025 at 9:53 PM
Senor Atlas Shrugged
This note is for market participants, not general readership.
July 8, 2025 at 11:13 PM
This note is for market participants, not general readership.
Disagree. No one in the markets it seems, or else or else it would have been pricing a “catastrophe”. That’s their point. Markets were complacent then and are again being complacent.
July 8, 2025 at 10:35 PM
Disagree. No one in the markets it seems, or else or else it would have been pricing a “catastrophe”. That’s their point. Markets were complacent then and are again being complacent.
Where do you think American “sellers” get their goods? They ain’t making them in their basement. And if they were (again, there not), I doubt your gonna get a flood of new hires for the type of work paying minimum wage.
April 6, 2025 at 11:46 AM
Where do you think American “sellers” get their goods? They ain’t making them in their basement. And if they were (again, there not), I doubt your gonna get a flood of new hires for the type of work paying minimum wage.
The tariff “revenue” is a tax hike. US households and/or businesses will pay it. It is a transfer from private sector to government. Not to mentioned dead weight loss from tax hike. Stock market loss is simply evaporated. It is a true loss (if sustained).
April 4, 2025 at 9:34 AM
The tariff “revenue” is a tax hike. US households and/or businesses will pay it. It is a transfer from private sector to government. Not to mentioned dead weight loss from tax hike. Stock market loss is simply evaporated. It is a true loss (if sustained).
Footnote: Of the 49, zero were on the cusp of reversing 75yrs of globalization and a dismantling of US legislative, judicial, and financial institutions.
March 31, 2025 at 4:40 PM
Footnote: Of the 49, zero were on the cusp of reversing 75yrs of globalization and a dismantling of US legislative, judicial, and financial institutions.
Whoever wrote this needs to have their econ degree checked. If you actually believe in a $825bn revenue raise (very unlikely given substitution), then you need to consider the impact of an $825bn tax hike on US businesses and households.
March 29, 2025 at 3:36 AM
Whoever wrote this needs to have their econ degree checked. If you actually believe in a $825bn revenue raise (very unlikely given substitution), then you need to consider the impact of an $825bn tax hike on US businesses and households.
The data through January tell a story of a moderating expansion, but the ongoing US policy turmoil is weighing on sentiment. Absent a détente in the US war on trade and other domestic austerity measures, we put the risk of recession this year at 40%.
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/g...
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/g...
Global Data Pod Weekender: Fear is the expansion killer
Podcast Episode · Global Data Pod · 03/14/2025 · 29m
podcasts.apple.com
March 15, 2025 at 3:06 AM
The data through January tell a story of a moderating expansion, but the ongoing US policy turmoil is weighing on sentiment. Absent a détente in the US war on trade and other domestic austerity measures, we put the risk of recession this year at 40%.
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/g...
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/g...
This breed of never-trumper doles out these sh*t-pretzels of logic to look like the adult in the room. Rather, Occam’s razor better points to a mix of corruption, willful neglect, incompetence, and hubris, all with unlimited power. There is no master plan, and history does not end well with it.
March 7, 2025 at 11:47 AM
This breed of never-trumper doles out these sh*t-pretzels of logic to look like the adult in the room. Rather, Occam’s razor better points to a mix of corruption, willful neglect, incompetence, and hubris, all with unlimited power. There is no master plan, and history does not end well with it.
Blaming austerity post-GFC on Obama is to completely ignore the order of events. Spending increased 2009–10, when Democrats controlled Congress, not to mention the hugely successful ACA. Over the next 6yrs, the R house and R senate extorted a trillion in spending cuts (budget control act of 2011).
March 1, 2025 at 2:17 PM
Blaming austerity post-GFC on Obama is to completely ignore the order of events. Spending increased 2009–10, when Democrats controlled Congress, not to mention the hugely successful ACA. Over the next 6yrs, the R house and R senate extorted a trillion in spending cuts (budget control act of 2011).
The import spike was led by a 33% rise in industrial supplies. This is the second month this category increased sharply. We don’t have a product breakdown for January yet, but an $8bn increase in gold in December accounted for much of the rise, and this could have again been a factor in January.
March 1, 2025 at 1:27 AM
The import spike was led by a 33% rise in industrial supplies. This is the second month this category increased sharply. We don’t have a product breakdown for January yet, but an $8bn increase in gold in December accounted for much of the rise, and this could have again been a factor in January.
What was the bank that allowed a cleared transaction to be taken from an account without notice or due process? Shouldn’t this be a story in its own right? How safe is the banking system if this can be done?
February 15, 2025 at 4:28 AM
What was the bank that allowed a cleared transaction to be taken from an account without notice or due process? Shouldn’t this be a story in its own right? How safe is the banking system if this can be done?