Ah yes, this drowning risk cluster is *checks notes* the entire nation of Iran.

Remember the 2024 election? Are you NOT sick of hearing predictions about who will win? Want to revisit 11/4?!

Probably not. But I wrote up some thoughts on my novice approach to building a poll aggregation model during this last cycle. gmcirco.github.io/blog/posts/p...

I've been looking at some data about the flow of "crime guns" (seized guns that were used in a crime) across state borders using ATF data. What I find is pretty interesting - although may not come to a surprise for many:

gmcirco.github.io/blog/posts/c...

And in my home state of Illinois, a close to 40% of seized crime guns come across the border from Indiana:

In fact, most of these guns come from South-Atlantic states with much looser gun laws than New York:

Where do crime guns in your state come from? In many places, NOT the same state the gun was registered in! For example, more than 80% of seized crime guns in New York were bought or registered somewhere else:

Bit of a preview of something I've been working on - revisiting Project Green Light Detroit. One thing I always wanted to delve a bit deeper into was the relationship between PGLD and the proactive police presence. Below is a plot showing the pretty stark change post-Green Light.

Here's a blog post about the one important skill I *didn't* learn in grad school: SQL! Here I talk a bit about using SQL inside of R, and how to use DuckDB to speed up analysis of large datasets. Looking back, something I wish I had learned a lot earlier.

gmcirco.github.io/blog/posts/d...

It's been a while - but a little blog post here about synthetic data simulation with spatial data. I detail a bit of the how and why of generating synthetic crime data using data from Hartford, CT on robberies and gas stations.

gmcirco.github.io/blog/posts/s...

Someone recently asked me how to use #rstats to map journeys of individuals across the United States. It's actually pretty easy, but requires a bit of work. Here's a quick blog post that walks through how to do this using the `sf` package in R.

Here's me dipping my toes into language models and NLP. In this quickie blog post I write about using pre-built @huggingface.bsky.social sentence transformers to aid searching through medical narratives:

gmcirco.github.io/blog/posts/n...

I'm a data guy and also a coffee nerd. So when James Hoffman released data from his Great American Coffee Taste Test I had to look at it:

gmcirco.github.io/blog/posts/c...

tl;dr: There are some small gender preferences for a funky coffee, but most of the effect is age or expertise-based!

A brief blog post on synthetic controls. Specifically, what we mean what we talk about "micro" approaches. A walkthrough using microsynth and some data I generated on NYPD's 2014 Operation Impact.

gmcirco.github.io/blog/posts/s...

I have a group that lives right by me! I got lucky and saw this big Tom with them.

Me and (social-less Andy Wheeler) released our approach for NIJ's Innovations in Measuring Community Perceptions Challenge. We propose a mail + web-based push survey to minimize costs, and use regression-based techniques to improve small area estimates. Check it out

www.crimrxiv.com/pub/p2pxki1g...