John Gillott
@gillottjohn.bsky.social
Author of Bioscience, Governance and Politics (Palgrave). Co-Author Science and the Retreat from Reason (Merlin/Monthly Review). Climber and Runner
Harowitz, in the piece, has ruled out this plot twist: "Where would you start? You can't have him waking up in the shower and saying it was all a dream." Maybe get a teenager to play the role and have 40 years of prequels, with the same actor as he ages. Start it all again set in 1985.
November 11, 2025 at 1:12 PM
Harowitz, in the piece, has ruled out this plot twist: "Where would you start? You can't have him waking up in the shower and saying it was all a dream." Maybe get a teenager to play the role and have 40 years of prequels, with the same actor as he ages. Start it all again set in 1985.
cf: "I discover no kinship, no understanding, no mercy. I see only the overwhelming indifference of nature. To me, there is no such thing as a secret world of the bears. And this blank stare speaks only of a half-bored interest in food. But for Timothy Treadwell, this bear was a friend, a savior."
November 6, 2025 at 2:13 PM
cf: "I discover no kinship, no understanding, no mercy. I see only the overwhelming indifference of nature. To me, there is no such thing as a secret world of the bears. And this blank stare speaks only of a half-bored interest in food. But for Timothy Treadwell, this bear was a friend, a savior."
I like Adam's blog on the Tuesday argument. That's my intuition as well. 1/3 is based on full interchangeability and lack of detail other than boy. The greater the peculiarity the more we limit this and rise to towards 1/2. When explaining it to kids I would go with "unicorn's horn on his head" 2/2
October 16, 2025 at 8:08 AM
I like Adam's blog on the Tuesday argument. That's my intuition as well. 1/3 is based on full interchangeability and lack of detail other than boy. The greater the peculiarity the more we limit this and rise to towards 1/2. When explaining it to kids I would go with "unicorn's horn on his head" 2/2
The wiki page on this goes over arguments about the phrasing of the question. We can make it explicit, "at least one of whom", or we can keep it a bit hidden - eg tell a story about a parent yelling for a boy to come inside from the garden, who it is clear is a boy but we can't see.... 1/2
October 16, 2025 at 8:00 AM
The wiki page on this goes over arguments about the phrasing of the question. We can make it explicit, "at least one of whom", or we can keep it a bit hidden - eg tell a story about a parent yelling for a boy to come inside from the garden, who it is clear is a boy but we can't see.... 1/2
Although, in a very meta way, Hungary itself was "greedy", so perhaps not such a quirk:
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hungari...
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hungari...
Hungarian mathematics - Wikipedia
en.wikipedia.org
September 30, 2025 at 8:53 AM
Although, in a very meta way, Hungary itself was "greedy", so perhaps not such a quirk:
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hungari...
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hungari...
"A recent modeling study ..." I didn't need to click through to know who the authors of that one were.... another one for @jeanfisch.bsky.social to add to the list
August 12, 2025 at 8:34 PM
"A recent modeling study ..." I didn't need to click through to know who the authors of that one were.... another one for @jeanfisch.bsky.social to add to the list
CHATGPT-5 is a clear improvement, but faced with a question a bright teenager can do that isn't searchable or easily coded, it, like previous iterations, starts generating nonsense to cover its tracks. It did eventually admit it was wrong. Eventually...
chatgpt.com/share/6895b9...
chatgpt.com/share/6895b9...
August 8, 2025 at 9:01 AM
CHATGPT-5 is a clear improvement, but faced with a question a bright teenager can do that isn't searchable or easily coded, it, like previous iterations, starts generating nonsense to cover its tracks. It did eventually admit it was wrong. Eventually...
chatgpt.com/share/6895b9...
chatgpt.com/share/6895b9...
Certainly, 75% is lower than I remember (90% or more in the UK pre-Omicron?)
July 29, 2025 at 9:56 AM
Certainly, 75% is lower than I remember (90% or more in the UK pre-Omicron?)
One of the 'benefits' of climbing as a teenager was that climbing anxiety dreams tended to dominate maths exam anxiety dreams - something that continued ever since
July 26, 2025 at 7:11 AM
One of the 'benefits' of climbing as a teenager was that climbing anxiety dreams tended to dominate maths exam anxiety dreams - something that continued ever since
Yes, this appears to be another example of Ioannidis simply ploughing on with his low values for IFR, now applied to lives saved by vaccines. At the very least you'd expect him to acknowledge that his values are outliers, via a few references to consensus estimates? But it seems not.
July 26, 2025 at 7:08 AM
Yes, this appears to be another example of Ioannidis simply ploughing on with his low values for IFR, now applied to lives saved by vaccines. At the very least you'd expect him to acknowledge that his values are outliers, via a few references to consensus estimates? But it seems not.
Thanks Mike - will have a look
June 18, 2025 at 7:52 AM
Thanks Mike - will have a look
reddit has the latest:
www.reddit.com/r/ClimbingCi...
www.reddit.com/r/ClimbingCi...
From the ClimbingCircleJerk community on Reddit: I’ve been climbing for 3 months. Is this shoe aggressive enough to overcome my V1 plateau?
Explore this post and more from the ClimbingCircleJerk community
www.reddit.com
June 12, 2025 at 2:12 PM
reddit has the latest:
www.reddit.com/r/ClimbingCi...
www.reddit.com/r/ClimbingCi...
Only ~8 degrees longitude difference, but one hour ahead on the clock - summer time and a half out there cf Hull
June 11, 2025 at 9:18 PM
Only ~8 degrees longitude difference, but one hour ahead on the clock - summer time and a half out there cf Hull
Sorry, no, that was just a broad brush look at the overall picture - I don't have details beyond that.
June 8, 2025 at 5:43 PM
Sorry, no, that was just a broad brush look at the overall picture - I don't have details beyond that.
£4.5bn in cash terms per year at the end of the period as compared with the start (2025/6). This is about 7%. BUT, existing announcements included and school spending in 2025/6 is underfunded, so it's more like 5% after three years, if that, ie ~1.7% per year. So likely a real cut after inflation
June 8, 2025 at 8:17 AM
£4.5bn in cash terms per year at the end of the period as compared with the start (2025/6). This is about 7%. BUT, existing announcements included and school spending in 2025/6 is underfunded, so it's more like 5% after three years, if that, ie ~1.7% per year. So likely a real cut after inflation
In addition to the staggering towards the gutter analogy, to explain the actual history that unfolded (which must include, eventually, us), Lynch suggests singular events and historical contingencies, rather than a "determined march toward complexity". This has always seemed reasonable to me.
May 31, 2025 at 2:51 PM
In addition to the staggering towards the gutter analogy, to explain the actual history that unfolded (which must include, eventually, us), Lynch suggests singular events and historical contingencies, rather than a "determined march toward complexity". This has always seemed reasonable to me.
I always took Gould's analogy to be a serious point / explanation: complexity will increase given simple beginnings without any "inherent" process involved, just as the backstop of the wall on one side means the drunk will, in the aggregate, stagger towards the gutter without any desire to end there
May 31, 2025 at 1:35 PM
I always took Gould's analogy to be a serious point / explanation: complexity will increase given simple beginnings without any "inherent" process involved, just as the backstop of the wall on one side means the drunk will, in the aggregate, stagger towards the gutter without any desire to end there
Ha, yes, evolution by creeps / jerks (the old ones are the best). Average used loosely, I realise. Having read the piece I see Lynch makes a similar point: "Of course, today’s organisms are more complex than prior to the Last Universal Common Ancestor (LUCA), but there was only one direction to go"
May 31, 2025 at 12:46 PM
Ha, yes, evolution by creeps / jerks (the old ones are the best). Average used loosely, I realise. Having read the piece I see Lynch makes a similar point: "Of course, today’s organisms are more complex than prior to the Last Universal Common Ancestor (LUCA), but there was only one direction to go"
I dimly recall one of Gould's arguments: if we start in a state of simplicity, then perhaps on average complexity will increase, only because there's no way to get any simpler. Analogously, a drunk staggers towards the gutter when a wall blocks movement in the other direction.
May 31, 2025 at 10:49 AM
I dimly recall one of Gould's arguments: if we start in a state of simplicity, then perhaps on average complexity will increase, only because there's no way to get any simpler. Analogously, a drunk staggers towards the gutter when a wall blocks movement in the other direction.
I've always liked your option 4. We can elaborate on this: it is also the restriction on Monty's choice. Monty can always reveal a goat behind one of the two doors not chosen by the player. At the same time he is forbidden from showing what is behind the door chosen by the player
May 21, 2025 at 10:51 AM
I've always liked your option 4. We can elaborate on this: it is also the restriction on Monty's choice. Monty can always reveal a goat behind one of the two doors not chosen by the player. At the same time he is forbidden from showing what is behind the door chosen by the player
The FE notes a significant general increase in IQ from one generation to the next (this is easy to miss because the mean is re-set to 100). This must be environmental (ie social change in this case). But at any moment in time, typically, specific environmental factors account for little variance
April 27, 2025 at 9:46 AM
The FE notes a significant general increase in IQ from one generation to the next (this is easy to miss because the mean is re-set to 100). This must be environmental (ie social change in this case). But at any moment in time, typically, specific environmental factors account for little variance
Yes, I was tempted to the bright side
April 26, 2025 at 10:53 AM
Yes, I was tempted to the bright side
"matters but doesn't make a difference" as Plomin says about most things - a deliberate play on difference and variance (the latter technically defined)
April 26, 2025 at 10:48 AM
"matters but doesn't make a difference" as Plomin says about most things - a deliberate play on difference and variance (the latter technically defined)
Yes, Flynn Effect, basically
April 26, 2025 at 9:43 AM
Yes, Flynn Effect, basically