Grimm Global Macro Advisory
@ggma.bsky.social
More than 25 years of experience on the buy/sell-side in #FX,#FI, #Macro & #Quant | PhD in #FX Forecasting with #Neural #Nets | Posts are in my own capacity.
I joined my friends at Livesquawk for a preview of the ECB meeting. You can listen to our conversation here: x.com/LiveSquawk/sta...
December 18, 2025 at 11:46 AM
I joined my friends at Livesquawk for a preview of the ECB meeting. You can listen to our conversation here: x.com/LiveSquawk/sta...
#WTI is under pressure this morning. I suspect this is related to the ongoing peace negotiations regarding Ukraine and the somewhat optimistic headlines. However, the chart from @IanRHarnett also looks quite intriguing and suggests much lower oil prices in the future.
December 16, 2025 at 8:19 AM
#WTI is under pressure this morning. I suspect this is related to the ongoing peace negotiations regarding Ukraine and the somewhat optimistic headlines. However, the chart from @IanRHarnett also looks quite intriguing and suggests much lower oil prices in the future.
Just a heads up. The UK labour market report will be published at 08:00 CET. The consensus is that the unemployment rate will rise, job growth will slow, and wage growth will decelerate as well.
December 16, 2025 at 6:53 AM
Just a heads up. The UK labour market report will be published at 08:00 CET. The consensus is that the unemployment rate will rise, job growth will slow, and wage growth will decelerate as well.
Watch JGB's and $USDJPY on Monday: Analysts at $MS predicted that, had another candidate won, the yield on 30-year Japanese government bonds could fall to 3 per cent. A Takaichi victory, they said, could cause the yield to rise to 3.35 per cent.
October 4, 2025 at 9:48 AM
Watch JGB's and $USDJPY on Monday: Analysts at $MS predicted that, had another candidate won, the yield on 30-year Japanese government bonds could fall to 3 per cent. A Takaichi victory, they said, could cause the yield to rise to 3.35 per cent.
Monday could be fun. IG Weekend markets are currently in the red. Tariffs are not just a bargaining tool but also a source of revenue!:
Peter Navarro, a Trump trade adviser, told CNBC on Friday that the tariff effort can replace the revenue of tax cuts.
$DXY $SPX $TLT $VIX
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Peter Navarro, a Trump trade adviser, told CNBC on Friday that the tariff effort can replace the revenue of tax cuts.
$DXY $SPX $TLT $VIX
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February 1, 2025 at 2:51 PM
Monday could be fun. IG Weekend markets are currently in the red. Tariffs are not just a bargaining tool but also a source of revenue!:
Peter Navarro, a Trump trade adviser, told CNBC on Friday that the tariff effort can replace the revenue of tax cuts.
$DXY $SPX $TLT $VIX
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Peter Navarro, a Trump trade adviser, told CNBC on Friday that the tariff effort can replace the revenue of tax cuts.
$DXY $SPX $TLT $VIX
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Wall Street’s big hope is Trump pulls his punches on immigration
Deporting 11 million undocumented immigrants could shrink the U.S. GDP by 8% and result in inflation, labor shortages, and major disruptions in sectors like agriculture, construction, and hospitality.
Deporting 11 million undocumented immigrants could shrink the U.S. GDP by 8% and result in inflation, labor shortages, and major disruptions in sectors like agriculture, construction, and hospitality.
January 26, 2025 at 2:54 PM
Wall Street’s big hope is Trump pulls his punches on immigration
Deporting 11 million undocumented immigrants could shrink the U.S. GDP by 8% and result in inflation, labor shortages, and major disruptions in sectors like agriculture, construction, and hospitality.
Deporting 11 million undocumented immigrants could shrink the U.S. GDP by 8% and result in inflation, labor shortages, and major disruptions in sectors like agriculture, construction, and hospitality.
#Inflation That’s Stubbornly Sticky Is Biggest Threat to Global #Economy, #Hildebrand Says
“While inflation has clearly come down, much of it driven by the post pandemic adjustments, I don’t think this inflation story is completely over,” he said. “The biggest risk would be that we wake up and
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“While inflation has clearly come down, much of it driven by the post pandemic adjustments, I don’t think this inflation story is completely over,” he said. “The biggest risk would be that we wake up and
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January 20, 2025 at 11:06 AM
#Inflation That’s Stubbornly Sticky Is Biggest Threat to Global #Economy, #Hildebrand Says
“While inflation has clearly come down, much of it driven by the post pandemic adjustments, I don’t think this inflation story is completely over,” he said. “The biggest risk would be that we wake up and
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“While inflation has clearly come down, much of it driven by the post pandemic adjustments, I don’t think this inflation story is completely over,” he said. “The biggest risk would be that we wake up and
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A small group of bond traders believe the Federal Reserve's next move on interest rates will be to increase them, contrary to the majority view that rates will be cut
- Money-market options prices imply about a 25% chance of a hike
- Rate-hike bets emerged after a hot December jobs report
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- Money-market options prices imply about a 25% chance of a hike
- Rate-hike bets emerged after a hot December jobs report
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January 19, 2025 at 8:29 PM
A small group of bond traders believe the Federal Reserve's next move on interest rates will be to increase them, contrary to the majority view that rates will be cut
- Money-market options prices imply about a 25% chance of a hike
- Rate-hike bets emerged after a hot December jobs report
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- Money-market options prices imply about a 25% chance of a hike
- Rate-hike bets emerged after a hot December jobs report
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That was a great #podcast guys: Market Bull Expects To Become A "Raging Bear" Later This Year | Darius Dale
After being "ragingly bullish" for the past 2 years, Darius now thinks there's good probability he will turn "ragingly bearish" at some point in 2025. @DariusDale42 @menlobear
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After being "ragingly bullish" for the past 2 years, Darius now thinks there's good probability he will turn "ragingly bearish" at some point in 2025. @DariusDale42 @menlobear
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January 19, 2025 at 12:23 PM
That was a great #podcast guys: Market Bull Expects To Become A "Raging Bear" Later This Year | Darius Dale
After being "ragingly bullish" for the past 2 years, Darius now thinks there's good probability he will turn "ragingly bearish" at some point in 2025. @DariusDale42 @menlobear
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After being "ragingly bullish" for the past 2 years, Darius now thinks there's good probability he will turn "ragingly bearish" at some point in 2025. @DariusDale42 @menlobear
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#ECB Can Cut Rates, But Caution Needed, #Schnabel Tells Finanztip
-‘Well on track’ to reach #inflation target of 2% this year
-Trade conflict is ‘very likely’ with new #US administration
“We currently see no major risks that could prevent us from reaching our 2% target,” she said in an interview
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-‘Well on track’ to reach #inflation target of 2% this year
-Trade conflict is ‘very likely’ with new #US administration
“We currently see no major risks that could prevent us from reaching our 2% target,” she said in an interview
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January 19, 2025 at 11:53 AM
#ECB Can Cut Rates, But Caution Needed, #Schnabel Tells Finanztip
-‘Well on track’ to reach #inflation target of 2% this year
-Trade conflict is ‘very likely’ with new #US administration
“We currently see no major risks that could prevent us from reaching our 2% target,” she said in an interview
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-‘Well on track’ to reach #inflation target of 2% this year
-Trade conflict is ‘very likely’ with new #US administration
“We currently see no major risks that could prevent us from reaching our 2% target,” she said in an interview
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$BofA strategists spearheaded by Michael #Hartnett said of all of the contrarian post-election trades, such as “sell #Trump rip,” “buy #Harris dip,” or “Trump wins, #China rallies,” the most contrarian is “buy #bonds.”’" - uk.investing.com/new...
BofA’s Hartnett says this is the ‘most contrarian post-election trade’ By Investing.com
BofA’s Hartnett says this is the ‘most contrarian post-election trade’
uk.investing.com
November 1, 2024 at 10:50 AM
$BofA strategists spearheaded by Michael #Hartnett said of all of the contrarian post-election trades, such as “sell #Trump rip,” “buy #Harris dip,” or “Trump wins, #China rallies,” the most contrarian is “buy #bonds.”’" - uk.investing.com/new...
#Swiss sight deposits dropped last week. It doesn't look or feel like the #SNB is currently intervening in the FX markets. $EURCHF $USDCHF $SMI #Switzerland
x.com/GFXFTs/status/...
Source: data.snb.ch/en/topic...
x.com/GFXFTs/status/...
Source: data.snb.ch/en/topic...
October 21, 2024 at 1:59 PM
#Swiss sight deposits dropped last week. It doesn't look or feel like the #SNB is currently intervening in the FX markets. $EURCHF $USDCHF $SMI #Switzerland
x.com/GFXFTs/status/...
Source: data.snb.ch/en/topic...
x.com/GFXFTs/status/...
Source: data.snb.ch/en/topic...
In case there is an escalation in the Middle East conflict, #Europe is in a bad place: „The #US is the world’s largest #oil producer, and thus its dependence on #Middle Eastern #petroleum has collapsed.“ $WTI $EURUSD $DAX
www.bloomberg.com/op...
x.com/gfxfts/status/...
www.bloomberg.com/op...
x.com/gfxfts/status/...
Why the Market Shrugs Off the Mother of All Oil Shocks
Oil traders are taking a “this time is different” approach to war risk. That’s, well, risky.
www.bloomberg.com
October 9, 2024 at 8:26 AM
In case there is an escalation in the Middle East conflict, #Europe is in a bad place: „The #US is the world’s largest #oil producer, and thus its dependence on #Middle Eastern #petroleum has collapsed.“ $WTI $EURUSD $DAX
www.bloomberg.com/op...
x.com/gfxfts/status/...
www.bloomberg.com/op...
x.com/gfxfts/status/...
The #Swiss #labour market is weakening: The number of #unemployed rose by 1,891 (+1.7%) to 113,245 in September 2024 compared to the previous month. Compared with the same month a year ago, unemployment rose by 22,419 (+24.7%).
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October 4, 2024 at 6:20 AM
The #Swiss #labour market is weakening: The number of #unemployed rose by 1,891 (+1.7%) to 113,245 in September 2024 compared to the previous month. Compared with the same month a year ago, unemployment rose by 22,419 (+24.7%).
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#MMT is alive an kicking in #Japan: Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba instructed his cabinet to draw up a package of #economic measures in a show of support to #inflation-hit voters ahead of a general election
The measures will aim to reduce the impact of high #prices and support growth, including
The measures will aim to reduce the impact of high #prices and support growth, including
October 4, 2024 at 4:57 AM
#MMT is alive an kicking in #Japan: Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba instructed his cabinet to draw up a package of #economic measures in a show of support to #inflation-hit voters ahead of a general election
The measures will aim to reduce the impact of high #prices and support growth, including
The measures will aim to reduce the impact of high #prices and support growth, including
The Fed Needs to Tread Carefully in Twitchy Money Markets
This week’s jump in borrowing costs suggests a couple of scenarios: Either large banks need more spare cash than the Fed has assumed, in which case it will have to halt its quantitative tightening sooner than it plans; or there are
This week’s jump in borrowing costs suggests a couple of scenarios: Either large banks need more spare cash than the Fed has assumed, in which case it will have to halt its quantitative tightening sooner than it plans; or there are
October 4, 2024 at 4:24 AM
The Fed Needs to Tread Carefully in Twitchy Money Markets
This week’s jump in borrowing costs suggests a couple of scenarios: Either large banks need more spare cash than the Fed has assumed, in which case it will have to halt its quantitative tightening sooner than it plans; or there are
This week’s jump in borrowing costs suggests a couple of scenarios: Either large banks need more spare cash than the Fed has assumed, in which case it will have to halt its quantitative tightening sooner than it plans; or there are
New #Japan PM Ishiba's tax rise plan could disrupt #BOJ rate hike path
"A capital gains tax hike would definitely deal a major blow to stock prices," said Koichi Fujishiro, economist at the Dai-ichi Life Research Institute. "Such a move could cool market sentiment even before the BOJ embarks
"A capital gains tax hike would definitely deal a major blow to stock prices," said Koichi Fujishiro, economist at the Dai-ichi Life Research Institute. "Such a move could cool market sentiment even before the BOJ embarks
October 3, 2024 at 4:34 AM
#Oil’s Fall Into $60s Widens the Runway for the Global Economy to Make a Soft Landing
With global benchmark #Brent crude falling below $70 a barrel for the first time since late 2021 on Tuesday, a key component of the #energy shock that drove the worst #inflation crisis in a generation is
With global benchmark #Brent crude falling below $70 a barrel for the first time since late 2021 on Tuesday, a key component of the #energy shock that drove the worst #inflation crisis in a generation is
September 11, 2024 at 5:16 AM
#Oil’s Fall Into $60s Widens the Runway for the Global Economy to Make a Soft Landing
With global benchmark #Brent crude falling below $70 a barrel for the first time since late 2021 on Tuesday, a key component of the #energy shock that drove the worst #inflation crisis in a generation is
With global benchmark #Brent crude falling below $70 a barrel for the first time since late 2021 on Tuesday, a key component of the #energy shock that drove the worst #inflation crisis in a generation is
#BOJ officials see little need to raise the benchmark rate when board members gather next week, as they’re still monitoring lingering volatility in financial markets and the impact of the July hike, sources say $USDJPY $Nikkei #EconTwitter #fintwit @BankOfJapan www.bloomberg.com/ne... via
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September 10, 2024 at 8:46 AM
#BOJ officials see little need to raise the benchmark rate when board members gather next week, as they’re still monitoring lingering volatility in financial markets and the impact of the July hike, sources say $USDJPY $Nikkei #EconTwitter #fintwit @BankOfJapan www.bloomberg.com/ne... via
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A key measure of #Eurozone #wage growth eased, providing further assurance to ECB officials seeking to lower interest rates next week
#Compensation per employee rose by 4.3% in the second quarter — down from 4.8% in the first three months of the year, according to calculations by Bloomberg.
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#Compensation per employee rose by 4.3% in the second quarter — down from 4.8% in the first three months of the year, according to calculations by Bloomberg.
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September 6, 2024 at 11:19 AM
A key measure of #Eurozone #wage growth eased, providing further assurance to ECB officials seeking to lower interest rates next week
#Compensation per employee rose by 4.3% in the second quarter — down from 4.8% in the first three months of the year, according to calculations by Bloomberg.
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#Compensation per employee rose by 4.3% in the second quarter — down from 4.8% in the first three months of the year, according to calculations by Bloomberg.
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#US close to agreeing on long-range missiles for #Ukraine; delivery to take months - www.reuters.com/worl... $VIX
September 3, 2024 at 9:10 PM
#US close to agreeing on long-range missiles for #Ukraine; delivery to take months - www.reuters.com/worl... $VIX
#ECB’s Nagel Sees Euro-Area Inflation on Right Track, FAZ Says - The recent sharp drop in #WTI will accelerate rate cuts imo www.bloomberg.com/ne... via @markets $EURUSD $EURCHF
ECB’s Nagel Sees Euro-Area Inflation on Right Track, FAZ Says
The European Central Bank mustn’t declare victory over inflation too soon — even if the retreat in consumer-price growth may allow another interest-rate cut next week, according to Governing Council member Joachim Nagel.
www.bloomberg.com
September 3, 2024 at 8:52 PM
#ECB’s Nagel Sees Euro-Area Inflation on Right Track, FAZ Says - The recent sharp drop in #WTI will accelerate rate cuts imo www.bloomberg.com/ne... via @markets $EURUSD $EURCHF
SF #Fed: Rent #inflation is expected to slow down
"Using a model that takes advantage of measures of the balance in the supply and demand of housing, we project that shelter inflation will continue to decline over the next few months."
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"Using a model that takes advantage of measures of the balance in the supply and demand of housing, we project that shelter inflation will continue to decline over the next few months."
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September 3, 2024 at 8:19 PM
SF #Fed: Rent #inflation is expected to slow down
"Using a model that takes advantage of measures of the balance in the supply and demand of housing, we project that shelter inflation will continue to decline over the next few months."
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"Using a model that takes advantage of measures of the balance in the supply and demand of housing, we project that shelter inflation will continue to decline over the next few months."
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