George Wu
@geowu.bsky.social
Decision researcher; just enough of a psychologist and economist to be dangerous
We've just completed a revision of this comment and posted it to SSRN. We very much appreciate all the useful and thoughtful comments that we've gotten from colleagues, Bluesky commentators, and, of course, Ryan Oprea.
@urisohn.bsky.social
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
@urisohn.bsky.social
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
July 4, 2025 at 9:07 PM
We've just completed a revision of this comment and posted it to SSRN. We very much appreciate all the useful and thoughtful comments that we've gotten from colleagues, Bluesky commentators, and, of course, Ryan Oprea.
@urisohn.bsky.social
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
@urisohn.bsky.social
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
Massive crowds, #NoKingsDay Chicago demonstration!
June 14, 2025 at 7:59 PM
Massive crowds, #NoKingsDay Chicago demonstration!
A reasonable worry. Shengwu did not post the link to the paper: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
Here's what they wrote about the procedure.
I also asked the authors to report on the number of "private questions" asked.
Here's what they wrote about the procedure.
I also asked the authors to report on the number of "private questions" asked.
May 1, 2025 at 1:02 PM
A reasonable worry. Shengwu did not post the link to the paper: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
Here's what they wrote about the procedure.
I also asked the authors to report on the number of "private questions" asked.
Here's what they wrote about the procedure.
I also asked the authors to report on the number of "private questions" asked.
Agree with the concerns, but this was common practice. From Friedman and Sunder's "Experimental Methods: A Primer for Economists" (1994).
Also important to note that mirror EV behavior in the other condition was 61% overall (>>Oprea), and 73% for those w/o errors. Then 90% when instructions read.
Also important to note that mirror EV behavior in the other condition was 61% overall (>>Oprea), and 73% for those w/o errors. Then 90% when instructions read.
April 30, 2025 at 7:55 PM
Agree with the concerns, but this was common practice. From Friedman and Sunder's "Experimental Methods: A Primer for Economists" (1994).
Also important to note that mirror EV behavior in the other condition was 61% overall (>>Oprea), and 73% for those w/o errors. Then 90% when instructions read.
Also important to note that mirror EV behavior in the other condition was 61% overall (>>Oprea), and 73% for those w/o errors. Then 90% when instructions read.
My father was a professor and a proud member of AAUP. AAUP supported 4 (!) faculty strikes during his time on the faculty.
Years later, I’m finally a proud member as well, though I have a different reason to support AAUP as it fights for the preservation of higher education.
Years later, I’m finally a proud member as well, though I have a different reason to support AAUP as it fights for the preservation of higher education.
April 20, 2025 at 8:35 PM
My father was a professor and a proud member of AAUP. AAUP supported 4 (!) faculty strikes during his time on the faculty.
Years later, I’m finally a proud member as well, though I have a different reason to support AAUP as it fights for the preservation of higher education.
Years later, I’m finally a proud member as well, though I have a different reason to support AAUP as it fights for the preservation of higher education.
A different way of understanding the results: look at the fraction of valuations that were expected value.
Study 1: over 90% of subjects valued mirrors CORRECTLY at EV. In Study 2, the rate was 61%, and 79% for subjects who were flawless on comprehension questions & answered mirrors first.
Study 1: over 90% of subjects valued mirrors CORRECTLY at EV. In Study 2, the rate was 61%, and 79% for subjects who were flawless on comprehension questions & answered mirrors first.
April 18, 2025 at 1:54 PM
A different way of understanding the results: look at the fraction of valuations that were expected value.
Study 1: over 90% of subjects valued mirrors CORRECTLY at EV. In Study 2, the rate was 61%, and 79% for subjects who were flawless on comprehension questions & answered mirrors first.
Study 1: over 90% of subjects valued mirrors CORRECTLY at EV. In Study 2, the rate was 61%, and 79% for subjects who were flawless on comprehension questions & answered mirrors first.
Study 2 results (without verbal instructions) show lottery and mirror differences that are less pronounced.
April 18, 2025 at 1:47 PM
Study 2 results (without verbal instructions) show lottery and mirror differences that are less pronounced.
Study 1 results (with verbal experimental instructions)
Plotted are MEANs for lotteries for mirrors. Lotteries look like prospect theory:
- risk seeking for small prob gains, risk aversion for large prob gains
- reflection for losses
- risk aversion for mixed prospects.
Mirrors are EV.
Plotted are MEANs for lotteries for mirrors. Lotteries look like prospect theory:
- risk seeking for small prob gains, risk aversion for large prob gains
- reflection for losses
- risk aversion for mixed prospects.
Mirrors are EV.
April 18, 2025 at 1:46 PM
Study 1 results (with verbal experimental instructions)
Plotted are MEANs for lotteries for mirrors. Lotteries look like prospect theory:
- risk seeking for small prob gains, risk aversion for large prob gains
- reflection for losses
- risk aversion for mixed prospects.
Mirrors are EV.
Plotted are MEANs for lotteries for mirrors. Lotteries look like prospect theory:
- risk seeking for small prob gains, risk aversion for large prob gains
- reflection for losses
- risk aversion for mixed prospects.
Mirrors are EV.
Just posted: a new paper by Li, Liu, Niu, and Wang.
Authors conduct an experimental replication of Oprea (2024) with a couple of twists.
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
Authors conduct an experimental replication of Oprea (2024) with a couple of twists.
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
April 18, 2025 at 1:37 PM
Just posted: a new paper by Li, Liu, Niu, and Wang.
Authors conduct an experimental replication of Oprea (2024) with a couple of twists.
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
Authors conduct an experimental replication of Oprea (2024) with a couple of twists.
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
Just posted on SSRN, an experimental follow-up to my comment with Daniel Banki, @urisohn.bsky.social, and Robert Walatka.
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
March 13, 2025 at 9:20 PM
Just posted on SSRN, an experimental follow-up to my comment with Daniel Banki, @urisohn.bsky.social, and Robert Walatka.
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
A new working paper with Daniel Banki, @urisohn.bsky.social and Robert Walatka, just submitted to SSRN.
The paper is comment on Ryan Oprea's recent AER paper.
The paper is processing, but you, my friends, get early entry.
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
The paper is comment on Ryan Oprea's recent AER paper.
The paper is processing, but you, my friends, get early entry.
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
February 7, 2025 at 1:08 AM
A new working paper with Daniel Banki, @urisohn.bsky.social and Robert Walatka, just submitted to SSRN.
The paper is comment on Ryan Oprea's recent AER paper.
The paper is processing, but you, my friends, get early entry.
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
The paper is comment on Ryan Oprea's recent AER paper.
The paper is processing, but you, my friends, get early entry.
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
And, interestingly, the most common day to "retire" a streak, 12/31.
January 1, 2025 at 3:07 PM
And, interestingly, the most common day to "retire" a streak, 12/31.
Here's the same plot for non-active streaks. 13.5% (296 out of 2928) started on January 1.
January 1, 2025 at 3:04 PM
Here's the same plot for non-active streaks. 13.5% (296 out of 2928) started on January 1.
Happy New Year!
For those of you who make New Year's Resolutions, 99 (12.5%) of the 787 longest running streaks (all over 8 years in duration) started on January 1.
(Second most frequent starting date: 12/31 with 19)
#FreshStart @katymilkman.bsky.social
For those of you who make New Year's Resolutions, 99 (12.5%) of the 787 longest running streaks (all over 8 years in duration) started on January 1.
(Second most frequent starting date: 12/31 with 19)
#FreshStart @katymilkman.bsky.social
January 1, 2025 at 2:46 PM
Happy New Year!
For those of you who make New Year's Resolutions, 99 (12.5%) of the 787 longest running streaks (all over 8 years in duration) started on January 1.
(Second most frequent starting date: 12/31 with 19)
#FreshStart @katymilkman.bsky.social
For those of you who make New Year's Resolutions, 99 (12.5%) of the 787 longest running streaks (all over 8 years in duration) started on January 1.
(Second most frequent starting date: 12/31 with 19)
#FreshStart @katymilkman.bsky.social
Congrats to @mikeyeomans.bsky.social! I'm not sure which makes me happier:
1) Mike's amazing accomplishment;
2) Mike is a Chicago Booth Behavioral Science PhD;
3) Mike ran just under 3:00 and is an n=1 demo for our Management Science paper;
4) Mike cited our paper in his Strava post.
Congrats!
1) Mike's amazing accomplishment;
2) Mike is a Chicago Booth Behavioral Science PhD;
3) Mike ran just under 3:00 and is an n=1 demo for our Management Science paper;
4) Mike cited our paper in his Strava post.
Congrats!
December 15, 2024 at 3:12 PM
Congrats to @mikeyeomans.bsky.social! I'm not sure which makes me happier:
1) Mike's amazing accomplishment;
2) Mike is a Chicago Booth Behavioral Science PhD;
3) Mike ran just under 3:00 and is an n=1 demo for our Management Science paper;
4) Mike cited our paper in his Strava post.
Congrats!
1) Mike's amazing accomplishment;
2) Mike is a Chicago Booth Behavioral Science PhD;
3) Mike ran just under 3:00 and is an n=1 demo for our Management Science paper;
4) Mike cited our paper in his Strava post.
Congrats!
The holiday season is here: seasonal inflatables in the front yard of Muhammad Ali’s former house.
My favorite, Santa in the portapotty, is not in this year’s rotation.
My favorite, Santa in the portapotty, is not in this year’s rotation.
December 13, 2024 at 9:09 PM
The holiday season is here: seasonal inflatables in the front yard of Muhammad Ali’s former house.
My favorite, Santa in the portapotty, is not in this year’s rotation.
My favorite, Santa in the portapotty, is not in this year’s rotation.
We're looking to hire a Postdoctoral Principal Researcher/Chief Scientist to work with @chicagobooth.bsky.social faculty in the Roman Family Center for Decision Research! Please pass along!
December 11, 2024 at 8:50 PM
We're looking to hire a Postdoctoral Principal Researcher/Chief Scientist to work with @chicagobooth.bsky.social faculty in the Roman Family Center for Decision Research! Please pass along!
A very important paper with some intriguing results.
Florian, I think that your conclusion is premature at this point. The earliest demonstrations of nonlinear probability weighting don’t use price lists (as this paper does). From Kahneman and Tversky (1979):
Florian, I think that your conclusion is premature at this point. The earliest demonstrations of nonlinear probability weighting don’t use price lists (as this paper does). From Kahneman and Tversky (1979):
November 28, 2024 at 2:46 AM
A very important paper with some intriguing results.
Florian, I think that your conclusion is premature at this point. The earliest demonstrations of nonlinear probability weighting don’t use price lists (as this paper does). From Kahneman and Tversky (1979):
Florian, I think that your conclusion is premature at this point. The earliest demonstrations of nonlinear probability weighting don’t use price lists (as this paper does). From Kahneman and Tversky (1979):
Chicago has plans to build a quantum computing campus on the south side.
From a thread...I'm now officially never using the other platform again.
From a thread...I'm now officially never using the other platform again.
November 22, 2024 at 10:23 PM
Chicago has plans to build a quantum computing campus on the south side.
From a thread...I'm now officially never using the other platform again.
From a thread...I'm now officially never using the other platform again.
I’ll close with this quote from The Atlantic article. As Oleg noted, this is a serious allegation, but also one that the article flings out without support.
Frankly, I don’t even know what this means. My guess is that researchers would operationalize this hypothesis in very different ways.
Frankly, I don’t even know what this means. My guess is that researchers would operationalize this hypothesis in very different ways.
November 20, 2024 at 2:26 PM
I’ll close with this quote from The Atlantic article. As Oleg noted, this is a serious allegation, but also one that the article flings out without support.
Frankly, I don’t even know what this means. My guess is that researchers would operationalize this hypothesis in very different ways.
Frankly, I don’t even know what this means. My guess is that researchers would operationalize this hypothesis in very different ways.