Geoffrey Williams
@geoffreyfw.bsky.social
Associate professor of economics at Transylvania University in Lexington, Kentucky. NB: Not actually a crested macaque.
I am frustrated by the write up of this by Burn-Murdoch in FT but graphic from the original article is fascinating. Basically in Germany in 2013 there were a ton of anti-immigrant voters whose views were not in line with any major party; AfD saw the opening:
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
1/2
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
1/2
September 27, 2025 at 7:50 PM
I am frustrated by the write up of this by Burn-Murdoch in FT but graphic from the original article is fascinating. Basically in Germany in 2013 there were a ton of anti-immigrant voters whose views were not in line with any major party; AfD saw the opening:
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
1/2
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
1/2
Converse 1964. High information voters are about 15%, group loyalty voters are about 45%, “situational awareness” (times are good/times are bad) are slightly more than 20%, “no issue content” slightly less than 20%.
September 8, 2025 at 5:19 PM
Converse 1964. High information voters are about 15%, group loyalty voters are about 45%, “situational awareness” (times are good/times are bad) are slightly more than 20%, “no issue content” slightly less than 20%.
One of many entertaining moments in Sumner by @ztameez.bsky.social
August 27, 2025 at 2:00 AM
One of many entertaining moments in Sumner by @ztameez.bsky.social
What actor’s expression in a movie will stay with you for the rest of your life?
May 22, 2025 at 1:36 AM
What actor’s expression in a movie will stay with you for the rest of your life?
Okay, this is driving me crazy - I don’t have a perfect rejoinder but I will note that China exports to US have fallen by 15-25% in March-April relative to any months in last few years. The attached graph is percentages - rickety I acknowledge - but matches the export value numbers I can find.
May 15, 2025 at 10:54 AM
Okay, this is driving me crazy - I don’t have a perfect rejoinder but I will note that China exports to US have fallen by 15-25% in March-April relative to any months in last few years. The attached graph is percentages - rickety I acknowledge - but matches the export value numbers I can find.
Live image of US social insurance system:
February 18, 2025 at 2:29 AM
Live image of US social insurance system:
From Bentley, 1908, Process of Government
February 10, 2025 at 3:46 AM
From Bentley, 1908, Process of Government
apropos of nothing, I just realized that Nixon resigned on my fifth birthday- August 8, 1974. This was famously after learning that GOP congressfolks were not going to support him anymore.
Here’s the monthly unemployment rate over 1974:
Here’s the monthly unemployment rate over 1974:
January 17, 2025 at 12:38 AM
apropos of nothing, I just realized that Nixon resigned on my fifth birthday- August 8, 1974. This was famously after learning that GOP congressfolks were not going to support him anymore.
Here’s the monthly unemployment rate over 1974:
Here’s the monthly unemployment rate over 1974:
Compared to counterfactuals the US economy was a miracle on wheels. But so far as I can tell, 90% of the electoral margin comes down to, “Has this line been above or below 2% over the last 6 months?”
December 31, 2024 at 2:58 AM
Compared to counterfactuals the US economy was a miracle on wheels. But so far as I can tell, 90% of the electoral margin comes down to, “Has this line been above or below 2% over the last 6 months?”
The excess mortality & morbidity is pretty general to almost all causes.
nap.nationalacademies.org/catalog/1349...
nap.nationalacademies.org/catalog/1349...
December 9, 2024 at 5:31 PM
The excess mortality & morbidity is pretty general to almost all causes.
nap.nationalacademies.org/catalog/1349...
nap.nationalacademies.org/catalog/1349...
November 27, 2024 at 2:39 AM
Elijah Lovejoy, ladies and gentlemen
October 26, 2024 at 1:02 AM
Elijah Lovejoy, ladies and gentlemen
Am doing my best to persuade others and am hopeful.
In my grimmer moments I am somewhat cheered up by thinking on the American sections of Martin Chuzzlewit - Dickens would not be particularly surprised by our situation.
In my grimmer moments I am somewhat cheered up by thinking on the American sections of Martin Chuzzlewit - Dickens would not be particularly surprised by our situation.
October 21, 2024 at 2:30 AM
Am doing my best to persuade others and am hopeful.
In my grimmer moments I am somewhat cheered up by thinking on the American sections of Martin Chuzzlewit - Dickens would not be particularly surprised by our situation.
In my grimmer moments I am somewhat cheered up by thinking on the American sections of Martin Chuzzlewit - Dickens would not be particularly surprised by our situation.
Probably my favorite section
October 17, 2024 at 11:25 PM
Probably my favorite section
This is kind of amazing (from FT on Maduro’s rule in Venezuela): Chavez seems to have turned the military into a basically feudal institution.
August 15, 2024 at 11:21 AM
This is kind of amazing (from FT on Maduro’s rule in Venezuela): Chavez seems to have turned the military into a basically feudal institution.
But NLSY seems to have quite a few:
August 14, 2024 at 1:42 AM
But NLSY seems to have quite a few:
So IPUMS CPS asks about *working *towards* a certificate in three Ed supplements in the 1990s. To add to the pain, it’s lumped in with licenses and “other diplomas.” I’m assuming this is not useful for your purposes?
Only variable that seems to be about earning certification in IPUMS CPS.
Only variable that seems to be about earning certification in IPUMS CPS.
August 14, 2024 at 1:40 AM
So IPUMS CPS asks about *working *towards* a certificate in three Ed supplements in the 1990s. To add to the pain, it’s lumped in with licenses and “other diplomas.” I’m assuming this is not useful for your purposes?
Only variable that seems to be about earning certification in IPUMS CPS.
Only variable that seems to be about earning certification in IPUMS CPS.
Pretty funny/painful point in Salsa Dancing Into the Social Sciences
July 19, 2024 at 9:16 PM
Pretty funny/painful point in Salsa Dancing Into the Social Sciences
And now for something completely different - Fun with science! Sweat gland density per cm^2 skin, for five areas of the body, for macaques, chimps, and humans. Our species redefined what it means to perspire.
July 18, 2024 at 5:03 PM
And now for something completely different - Fun with science! Sweat gland density per cm^2 skin, for five areas of the body, for macaques, chimps, and humans. Our species redefined what it means to perspire.
Holy guacamole. I didn’t realize how dramatic the shift was. Source: www.bls.gov/wsp/addition...
May 31, 2024 at 10:52 PM
Holy guacamole. I didn’t realize how dramatic the shift was. Source: www.bls.gov/wsp/addition...
You wouldn’t last an hour in the asylum where they raised me.
April 27, 2024 at 12:47 AM
You wouldn’t last an hour in the asylum where they raised me.
So, I’ve never known an election where there wasn’t serious unevenness in which votes got counted first, but still…a nice start.
April 20, 2024 at 12:58 AM
So, I’ve never known an election where there wasn’t serious unevenness in which votes got counted first, but still…a nice start.