It has had indirect effects in that Donald Trump remembers it very well, and that’s why he’s allowing Pete Hegseth to purge the officer corps, especially of anyone associated with Mark Milley

this is one of many reasons the Capitol Police (+LoC, GAO) should be paid through some instrument not linked to executive branch funding

Congrats, it’s been a great run!

yeah the comparison is Ted Cruz shutting down the government in 2013 to defund Obamacare, which failed, enraged R primary voters when they caved, but also did not stop R's from taking the Senate in 2014

Which makes it notable that they’re not removing THAT hostage from then next round of negotiations like they are SNAP. Sean Duffy will play that card again in February

Interestingly, I don’t think Chris Pappas, who will probably replace Shaheen, has joined the other senate candidates in denouncing it.

Maybe not even to get them to sign off, but to get them to allow a vote: Thune tells his caucus “if you let me give the Dems a vote on subsidies, I’ll also put up a vote on FSAs, so you can vote for it as cover for voting against the ACA subsidies”

“Fight/don’t fight rather than left/moderate” strikes again

It may not even be halftime, since the house probably won't pass this anyway (House D's hate it and House R's will demand a clean CR)

Between shutting down air travel and banning rewards cards, both on Trump’s watch, suburban voters will put up Assad margins for D’s in 2026

we're here to fight the Boxers, not the Qing

we're here to fight Hizbollah, not the government of Lebanon

we're here to fight the gangs, not the Republic of Haiti

we're here to fight the Huerta regime, not the state of Mexico

we're here to fight the Neo-Banderits, not Ukraine

Somebody compared the shutdown strategy to Meade at Gettysburg, and that's exactly it. It's not a brilliant plan, but it's good enough, and the other side is walking right into it, attacking when they shouldn't. So it'll do well enough until a Grant or a Sherman comes along.

in terms of material politics yes, but in symbolic terms it will be massive, humiliating loss, right on the heels of the elections, that will make him lash out more.

and he can probably find other ways to re-impose many of the same tariffs, which he'll probably feel he has to do...