Gerard DiPippo
@gdp1985.bsky.social
RAND China Research Center. Former Senior Geo-Economics Analyst at Bloomberg, CSIS Economics Program, DNIO for Economic Issues at NIC, and CIA. All views my own.
Over the past few years, Beijing has been mirroring the U.S. economic-security toolkit. China is developing its own architecture to manage risk, preserve chokepoints, and respond in kind. It's also learning from the United States.
October 12, 2025 at 5:37 PM
Over the past few years, Beijing has been mirroring the U.S. economic-security toolkit. China is developing its own architecture to manage risk, preserve chokepoints, and respond in kind. It's also learning from the United States.
In my CLM piece, I argue that PRC exporters have found new markets for ~80% of their lost exports to the US and transshipment is low. I updated those figures to include July data. The conclusion is the same. To the extent there is transshipment, it's mostly via SE Asia.
September 21, 2025 at 5:30 PM
In my CLM piece, I argue that PRC exporters have found new markets for ~80% of their lost exports to the US and transshipment is low. I updated those figures to include July data. The conclusion is the same. To the extent there is transshipment, it's mostly via SE Asia.
Facing U.S. tariffs, China’s exports to the U.S. are down—while exports to Southeast Asia are up. Is that trade diversion and potential transshipment? My estimate: at most 34% of the increased PRC exports to SE Asia in Q2 could reflect trade diverted from the United States.
July 20, 2025 at 7:15 PM
Facing U.S. tariffs, China’s exports to the U.S. are down—while exports to Southeast Asia are up. Is that trade diversion and potential transshipment? My estimate: at most 34% of the increased PRC exports to SE Asia in Q2 could reflect trade diverted from the United States.
The US and China have a new framework to de-escalate. Whether that'll be durable is unclear. What is clear is that China can and will weaponize its export dominance. We discuss what the trade war teaches us about China's economy in our new RAND Commentary. www.rand.org/pubs/comment...
June 12, 2025 at 11:27 AM
The US and China have a new framework to de-escalate. Whether that'll be durable is unclear. What is clear is that China can and will weaponize its export dominance. We discuss what the trade war teaches us about China's economy in our new RAND Commentary. www.rand.org/pubs/comment...
The Trump administration is trying to reindustrialize with tariffs, especially on China. But China has lessons to teach the US about industrial strategy. A new RAND Commentary with @fraghi.bsky.social and Benjamin Lenain. www.rand.org/pubs/comment...
April 18, 2025 at 3:51 PM
The Trump administration is trying to reindustrialize with tariffs, especially on China. But China has lessons to teach the US about industrial strategy. A new RAND Commentary with @fraghi.bsky.social and Benjamin Lenain. www.rand.org/pubs/comment...
I would interpret the US tariff exemptions primarily as an attempt to mitigate the impact on electronics and consumers more than as a signal of a US-China deal. The exempted categories cover about 22% of US imports from China. content.govdelivery.com/bulletins/gd...
April 12, 2025 at 2:49 PM
I would interpret the US tariff exemptions primarily as an attempt to mitigate the impact on electronics and consumers more than as a signal of a US-China deal. The exempted categories cover about 22% of US imports from China. content.govdelivery.com/bulletins/gd...
Which US industries are most exposed to the China market? Looking at US majority-owned foreign affiliates, the answer is wholesale trade, computers & electronics, chemicals & pharma, autos, and semiconductors. This could matter for US-China talks and potential PRC retaliation to US tariffs.
March 30, 2025 at 6:07 PM
Which US industries are most exposed to the China market? Looking at US majority-owned foreign affiliates, the answer is wholesale trade, computers & electronics, chemicals & pharma, autos, and semiconductors. This could matter for US-China talks and potential PRC retaliation to US tariffs.
Taiwan is nervous. With good reason. Jude Blanchette and I discuss in our new RAND Commentary. www.rand.org/pubs/comment...
March 26, 2025 at 11:45 PM
Taiwan is nervous. With good reason. Jude Blanchette and I discuss in our new RAND Commentary. www.rand.org/pubs/comment...
China's total fiscal deficit is set to increase by at least 2 percentage points of GDP in 2025. That's maybe not the massive stimulus some wanted, but it's not small either. The question is the composition and effectiveness of the measures.
March 16, 2025 at 4:09 PM
China's total fiscal deficit is set to increase by at least 2 percentage points of GDP in 2025. That's maybe not the massive stimulus some wanted, but it's not small either. The question is the composition and effectiveness of the measures.
China/BRI nerds, does anyone know if MOFCOM expanded the countries it counts as BRI in its stats? Is there a list by year? Reported BRI projects and investment surged in 2023. Is this due to categorization?
February 27, 2025 at 3:45 PM
China/BRI nerds, does anyone know if MOFCOM expanded the countries it counts as BRI in its stats? Is there a list by year? Reported BRI projects and investment surged in 2023. Is this due to categorization?
I meant "slowdown" in terms of GDP growth *rates*. But if you want *absolute* GDP growth for China and the US, here you go! Whether one uses nominal growth at market exchange rates, real growth at fixed exchange rates, or nominal growth at PPP exchange rates makes a difference.
February 23, 2025 at 7:49 PM
I meant "slowdown" in terms of GDP growth *rates*. But if you want *absolute* GDP growth for China and the US, here you go! Whether one uses nominal growth at market exchange rates, real growth at fixed exchange rates, or nominal growth at PPP exchange rates makes a difference.
Two narratives about China's economy:
- Macro weakness
- Technological and industrial strength
They're both true! How? The "new economy" is a small share of the overall economy. I discuss in a new RAND Commentary.
www.rand.org/pubs/comment...
- Macro weakness
- Technological and industrial strength
They're both true! How? The "new economy" is a small share of the overall economy. I discuss in a new RAND Commentary.
www.rand.org/pubs/comment...
February 20, 2025 at 1:18 AM
Two narratives about China's economy:
- Macro weakness
- Technological and industrial strength
They're both true! How? The "new economy" is a small share of the overall economy. I discuss in a new RAND Commentary.
www.rand.org/pubs/comment...
- Macro weakness
- Technological and industrial strength
They're both true! How? The "new economy" is a small share of the overall economy. I discuss in a new RAND Commentary.
www.rand.org/pubs/comment...
When in Taipei...
Perfect broth. NTD 200 ($6). 😋
Perfect broth. NTD 200 ($6). 😋
February 17, 2025 at 4:17 AM
When in Taipei...
Perfect broth. NTD 200 ($6). 😋
Perfect broth. NTD 200 ($6). 😋
Tertiary industry (services) account for most of China's GDP growth, although manufacturing increased in importance in 2024. I need to find a way to invest in China's "other" sector. It remains the tertiary industry star...
January 19, 2025 at 8:12 PM
Tertiary industry (services) account for most of China's GDP growth, although manufacturing increased in importance in 2024. I need to find a way to invest in China's "other" sector. It remains the tertiary industry star...
This report emphasizes the importance of Gulf countries "recycling" their petrodollar surpluses. The petroyuan could end these benefits for the US, it says. But Gulf surpluses with AEs (USD bloc) were far larger in GDP terms during the heyday of the petrodollar than with China today.
January 19, 2025 at 6:52 PM
This report emphasizes the importance of Gulf countries "recycling" their petrodollar surpluses. The petroyuan could end these benefits for the US, it says. But Gulf surpluses with AEs (USD bloc) were far larger in GDP terms during the heyday of the petrodollar than with China today.
This is excellent. But I'm tripping up over this. e-CNY doesn't pay interest. Users will want other RMB assets. "Smart capital controls" could work. But would foreign investors then want more RMB bonds? Cash balances are only a small part of the global capital story. asiasociety.org/policy-insti...
January 19, 2025 at 3:57 PM
This is excellent. But I'm tripping up over this. e-CNY doesn't pay interest. Users will want other RMB assets. "Smart capital controls" could work. But would foreign investors then want more RMB bonds? Cash balances are only a small part of the global capital story. asiasociety.org/policy-insti...
What's going on with China's real estate statistics? NBS reports a recovery in the real estate component of GDP in Q4 2024. But other indicators suggest continuing contraction, except a slight recovery in sales. Trying to figure out how China nailed its 5.00% GDP growth target...
January 18, 2025 at 10:16 PM
What's going on with China's real estate statistics? NBS reports a recovery in the real estate component of GDP in Q4 2024. But other indicators suggest continuing contraction, except a slight recovery in sales. Trying to figure out how China nailed its 5.00% GDP growth target...
This shows ultimate ownership. The US share is small. But the allied share is large.
December 16, 2024 at 5:00 PM
This shows ultimate ownership. The US share is small. But the allied share is large.
When the Reagan admin ended the cost differential subsidy, the US commercial shipbuilding sector went from tiny to miniscule. There are reasons to worry about the small US flagged fleet, but we don't need to distort history to make those points. 3/
December 16, 2024 at 12:02 PM
When the Reagan admin ended the cost differential subsidy, the US commercial shipbuilding sector went from tiny to miniscule. There are reasons to worry about the small US flagged fleet, but we don't need to distort history to make those points. 3/
Don't confuse *flagged* ships with who built them, as the article does. Greece isn't the world's top shipbuilder. China is. And it has a massive SOE-owned fleet. 2/
December 16, 2024 at 12:02 PM
Don't confuse *flagged* ships with who built them, as the article does. Greece isn't the world's top shipbuilder. China is. And it has a massive SOE-owned fleet. 2/
I guess the US hasn't been a great naval power since WW2 then... The US only had a comparatively large commercial shipbuilding sector during the war. It hasn't had a large market share since. I wrote about this in April. blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories... 1/
December 16, 2024 at 12:02 PM
I guess the US hasn't been a great naval power since WW2 then... The US only had a comparatively large commercial shipbuilding sector during the war. It hasn't had a large market share since. I wrote about this in April. blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories... 1/
Almost done with this on Audible. Summary: "[x] attacked [y] with [numerical advantage/no reserves] and suffered [awful/catastrophic/irreplaceable] losses for a gain of [10 km/100 m/nothing]." That 50x. Plus a handful of actual breakthroughs over 4 years. But more movement than the Western front!
December 15, 2024 at 2:19 PM
Almost done with this on Audible. Summary: "[x] attacked [y] with [numerical advantage/no reserves] and suffered [awful/catastrophic/irreplaceable] losses for a gain of [10 km/100 m/nothing]." That 50x. Plus a handful of actual breakthroughs over 4 years. But more movement than the Western front!