The same logic could’ve applied to kicking off the shutdown on this issue in the first place.

yeah he's getting shafted on Hemp beverages.

yeah, if that had been the stated reason it would've had a different dynamic. While I'm fine with the Senators bailing, I also think it's totally fair to blame Schumer/Jeffries for how it was messaged from the start. Voters don't follow this obsessively enough to track the origins.

Some thought Dems shouldn't focus on the subsidies because Repubs wanted to do it anyways, but once it became such a partisan issue that was cooked.

I agree with the subsequent points, but disagree on the motivation. The ACA subsidies were 100% the stated motivation for the shutdown. It wasn't a terrible tactic, as it created possibility Trump would break with the hardliners and just cut the check and they could "win." But that didn't happen.

And it's not fair that Trump is behaving unlawfully with SNAP. But that's the risk you run doing this as the opposition party, you don't control the levers of power, especially with SCOTUS stacked against you.

Many in the greater Dem. coalition WANTED the shutdown to be about ALL OF THE TRUMP 2025 STUFF, including immigration overreach, power of the purse, RIFs... but that's not the battleline they chose, it's fine to declare victory and fight the next fight.

Politically, focusing on the subsidies was a chance to heighten the salience of health care (☑️) and draw a distinction between the parties on these skyrocketing costs (☑️). The marginal gains for scoring political points on health care by keeping the government shutdown are now low.

7) If it were me, I wouldn't agree to fund the FSGG approps bill that funds the WH/OMB without policy riders that take away the administration's funding to pursue things like impoundment, etc. Why should Russ Vought have any staff? Saying "no" here is a policy win. If they do it.

3. Republicans were playing good cop, bad cop, crazy cop.

Good cop: Senate Republicans
Bad cop: House Republicans (Johnson)
Crazy cop: Russ Vought + Trump

Vought's plan was always to use impoundment/rescissions/starving people + firing feds to force Dems to surrender on the power of the purse.

And they've raised the salience of health care, drawn a distinction and now the campaign for next year has begun.

The argument to keep the government shutdown indefinitely then becomes it makes Trump less popular, but his dropping approval rating in last couple of weeks is he own doing and/or coincidental to the elections. But SNAP recipients and air travel are real costs.

So I guess if they kept this going they could hope Trump got Senate Republicans to nuke the filibuster on these, but what makes you think he is now likely to cave on health care?

Okay Kevin