Gareth S Jones
@garethsjones.bsky.social
Welsh climate scientist mostly found buried in the pages of a good book, or wandering the footpaths of East Devon. Also on https://toot.wales/@garethsjones
Lovely day at Seaton Wetlands (East Devon), where even the birds use the hides. Seeing two kingfishers flying in formation was quite special.
September 27, 2025 at 6:48 PM
Lovely day at Seaton Wetlands (East Devon), where even the birds use the hides. Seeing two kingfishers flying in formation was quite special.
I didn't notice any correlation values in the text (which is odd), only that some were "significant". One figure suggest small values of correlations. In statistical terminology a correlation of 0.2 means the one dataset could "explain" 4% of the variability of the other.
September 26, 2025 at 11:13 AM
I didn't notice any correlation values in the text (which is odd), only that some were "significant". One figure suggest small values of correlations. In statistical terminology a correlation of 0.2 means the one dataset could "explain" 4% of the variability of the other.
They use Maunder and Dalton minimum as names for cool periods - they are terms for low solar activity NOT climate. Frustrating to see such obvious mistakes being missed by the authors, reviewers and the editor.
September 4, 2025 at 8:33 AM
They use Maunder and Dalton minimum as names for cool periods - they are terms for low solar activity NOT climate. Frustrating to see such obvious mistakes being missed by the authors, reviewers and the editor.
Correlation does not mean causation. Especially when comparing 200 year moving averages over a 300 year period!
September 4, 2025 at 8:29 AM
Correlation does not mean causation. Especially when comparing 200 year moving averages over a 300 year period!
There was no passenger service when I was a kid. Even though I have used the line a few times, it is still a novelty to visit my home town by train.
August 23, 2025 at 1:47 PM
There was no passenger service when I was a kid. Even though I have used the line a few times, it is still a novelty to visit my home town by train.
At #DinoConUK at Exeter uni. Brilliant seeing so much enthusiasm for palaeontology. Meeting and saying 'thank you' to Dougal Dixon for his wonderful books is highlight so far.
August 16, 2025 at 12:18 PM
At #DinoConUK at Exeter uni. Brilliant seeing so much enthusiasm for palaeontology. Meeting and saying 'thank you' to Dougal Dixon for his wonderful books is highlight so far.
Equation labels are for wimps!
July 28, 2025 at 10:26 AM
Equation labels are for wimps!
You would think a @natureportfolio.nature.com journal would at least have checked the spelling (including in the title)!
July 28, 2025 at 10:15 AM
You would think a @natureportfolio.nature.com journal would at least have checked the spelling (including in the title)!
Even if you use the same length trends, the picture of what periods had biggest/smallest trends can differ depending on the choice of start and end points.
June 27, 2025 at 8:22 PM
Even if you use the same length trends, the picture of what periods had biggest/smallest trends can differ depending on the choice of start and end points.
For instance, if they had done a similar analysis 10 years ago, they might have claimed that global warming had slowed down.
This shows that there are pitfalls to comparing trends in data, especially if they are subjectively chosen and have different lengths.
This shows that there are pitfalls to comparing trends in data, especially if they are subjectively chosen and have different lengths.
June 27, 2025 at 8:10 PM
For instance, if they had done a similar analysis 10 years ago, they might have claimed that global warming had slowed down.
This shows that there are pitfalls to comparing trends in data, especially if they are subjectively chosen and have different lengths.
This shows that there are pitfalls to comparing trends in data, especially if they are subjectively chosen and have different lengths.
The New York Times claims that the warming in global temperatures has accelerated since the 1970s. But they are comparing trends of different lengths, with differing amounts of "noise" and uncertainty. One has to be very careful when making such claims.
www.nytimes.com/2025/06/26/c...
www.nytimes.com/2025/06/26/c...
June 27, 2025 at 8:06 PM
The New York Times claims that the warming in global temperatures has accelerated since the 1970s. But they are comparing trends of different lengths, with differing amounts of "noise" and uncertainty. One has to be very careful when making such claims.
www.nytimes.com/2025/06/26/c...
www.nytimes.com/2025/06/26/c...
A computer system change at work means today is last day I can use the image display/edit software `xv'. Been using it since my PhD days - it has been an invaluable tool. Farewell old friend.
June 25, 2025 at 9:12 AM
A computer system change at work means today is last day I can use the image display/edit software `xv'. Been using it since my PhD days - it has been an invaluable tool. Farewell old friend.
June 5, 2025 at 2:50 PM
This is a scatter plot of AMOC trends and a fingerprint of North Atlantic sea-surface trends. They use model ensemble means. I don't think the correlation is as "strong" as the authors claim.
They mislabel the "a" and "b" panels in the caption and main text, which doesn't help.
They mislabel the "a" and "b" panels in the caption and main text, which doesn't help.
May 29, 2025 at 7:45 AM
This is a scatter plot of AMOC trends and a fingerprint of North Atlantic sea-surface trends. They use model ensemble means. I don't think the correlation is as "strong" as the authors claim.
They mislabel the "a" and "b" panels in the caption and main text, which doesn't help.
They mislabel the "a" and "b" panels in the caption and main text, which doesn't help.
In 2010 the author claimed global warming was caused by CFCs, and that "a long-term global cooling starting around 2002 is expected to continue for next five to seven decades". And the same was said in 2023.
It didn't, and it won't (unless humanity substantially reduces emissions of CO2).
It didn't, and it won't (unless humanity substantially reduces emissions of CO2).
May 23, 2025 at 5:04 PM
In 2010 the author claimed global warming was caused by CFCs, and that "a long-term global cooling starting around 2002 is expected to continue for next five to seven decades". And the same was said in 2023.
It didn't, and it won't (unless humanity substantially reduces emissions of CO2).
It didn't, and it won't (unless humanity substantially reduces emissions of CO2).
Always disappointing to see an "Institute of Physics" publish this sort of nonsense.
"we are optimistic to observe a continuous long-term reversal in GMST, which likely already started at the end of 2023 and will exhibit a cooling trend in the coming decades"
pubs.aip.org/aip/adv/arti...
"we are optimistic to observe a continuous long-term reversal in GMST, which likely already started at the end of 2023 and will exhibit a cooling trend in the coming decades"
pubs.aip.org/aip/adv/arti...
May 23, 2025 at 4:54 PM
Always disappointing to see an "Institute of Physics" publish this sort of nonsense.
"we are optimistic to observe a continuous long-term reversal in GMST, which likely already started at the end of 2023 and will exhibit a cooling trend in the coming decades"
pubs.aip.org/aip/adv/arti...
"we are optimistic to observe a continuous long-term reversal in GMST, which likely already started at the end of 2023 and will exhibit a cooling trend in the coming decades"
pubs.aip.org/aip/adv/arti...
Bluebell hunting in East Devon. Holyford woods particularly lovely today, with added Wild Garlic.
May 3, 2025 at 4:05 PM
Bluebell hunting in East Devon. Holyford woods particularly lovely today, with added Wild Garlic.
I should have added the title of the paper!
Cao et al "Evaluation and prediction of the effects of planetary orbital variations to earth’s temperature changes", International Journal of Digital Earth, 2025
Cao et al "Evaluation and prediction of the effects of planetary orbital variations to earth’s temperature changes", International Journal of Digital Earth, 2025
April 14, 2025 at 8:18 AM
I should have added the title of the paper!
Cao et al "Evaluation and prediction of the effects of planetary orbital variations to earth’s temperature changes", International Journal of Digital Earth, 2025
Cao et al "Evaluation and prediction of the effects of planetary orbital variations to earth’s temperature changes", International Journal of Digital Earth, 2025
Bizarre paper (in journal I hadn't heard of before). The only thing not odd is their discovery of the seasonal cycle in temperatures!
Otherwise, example of physics and "correlation does not necessarily mean causation" being ignored.
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
Otherwise, example of physics and "correlation does not necessarily mean causation" being ignored.
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
April 14, 2025 at 8:11 AM
Bizarre paper (in journal I hadn't heard of before). The only thing not odd is their discovery of the seasonal cycle in temperatures!
Otherwise, example of physics and "correlation does not necessarily mean causation" being ignored.
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
Otherwise, example of physics and "correlation does not necessarily mean causation" being ignored.
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
First proper walk in ages, Axminster to Lyme Regis. ☀️And my first bluebells of the year :-)
April 5, 2025 at 4:42 PM
First proper walk in ages, Axminster to Lyme Regis. ☀️And my first bluebells of the year :-)
It is ironic and disappointing that a paper that points out that you can't simply associate lower solar activity with cold weather and resulting impacts, is used to say it can! Oh, and solar activity is not associated with volcanic eruptions.
link.springer.com/article/10.1...
link.springer.com/article/10.1...
April 3, 2025 at 3:18 PM
It is ironic and disappointing that a paper that points out that you can't simply associate lower solar activity with cold weather and resulting impacts, is used to say it can! Oh, and solar activity is not associated with volcanic eruptions.
link.springer.com/article/10.1...
link.springer.com/article/10.1...
Very disappointed to see this graph, in the WMO State of the global climate 2024 report wmo.int/publication-..., with "Method 3 Human contribution to warming in 2024" shown. No details of the method used and how it was updated. Not something you can just turn a handle on!
March 19, 2025 at 9:46 AM
Very disappointed to see this graph, in the WMO State of the global climate 2024 report wmo.int/publication-..., with "Method 3 Human contribution to warming in 2024" shown. No details of the method used and how it was updated. Not something you can just turn a handle on!
Think I might need to replace my 'Mathematical Desk Companion' ;-)
March 12, 2025 at 10:48 AM
Think I might need to replace my 'Mathematical Desk Companion' ;-)
That their main result doesn't "detect" (not sure the author's define what that means) any "acceleration/deceleration" before 1970, is a bit a hint that their method is probably not very robust.
October 15, 2024 at 4:52 PM
That their main result doesn't "detect" (not sure the author's define what that means) any "acceleration/deceleration" before 1970, is a bit a hint that their method is probably not very robust.
Took day off and spent last day of summer on Dorset coast. View from Stonebarrow hill - Golden Cap/Lyme Regis.
August 30, 2024 at 4:27 PM
Took day off and spent last day of summer on Dorset coast. View from Stonebarrow hill - Golden Cap/Lyme Regis.