The Gambler's Ruin Project
@gamblersruin72.bsky.social
Conducting research using AI machine learning and AI Neural Networks as well a statistical models are used to predict soccer match outcomes.
The odds are always slipping through the cracks
Then the match's over, fade to black
This Prediction's is a lemon
And I want my money back
I want my money back
(This predictions a lemon)
(This predictions a lemon)
I want my Money back
Then the match's over, fade to black
This Prediction's is a lemon
And I want my money back
I want my money back
(This predictions a lemon)
(This predictions a lemon)
I want my Money back
October 19, 2025 at 9:05 AM
The odds are always slipping through the cracks
Then the match's over, fade to black
This Prediction's is a lemon
And I want my money back
I want my money back
(This predictions a lemon)
(This predictions a lemon)
I want my Money back
Then the match's over, fade to black
This Prediction's is a lemon
And I want my money back
I want my money back
(This predictions a lemon)
(This predictions a lemon)
I want my Money back
My models are split because of the weather. If the weather is a monsoon, then the model suggests a 0-0, 1-1 draw. If weather is not a factor a 1-3 or 1-2 Fire victory. What's your take?
October 17, 2025 at 6:31 PM
My models are split because of the weather. If the weather is a monsoon, then the model suggests a 0-0, 1-1 draw. If weather is not a factor a 1-3 or 1-2 Fire victory. What's your take?
Davidson ELO ratings for Serie for 10/18
October 14, 2025 at 7:42 PM
Davidson ELO ratings for Serie for 10/18
Overall: SmartBet AI correctly predicted the goal total and tempo (both teams scoring in a 2–1 type match), but misidentified the winner due to undervalued home advantage and stale player data. A targeted feature update could lift accuracy in similar MLS fixtures.
October 12, 2025 at 10:33 AM
Overall: SmartBet AI correctly predicted the goal total and tempo (both teams scoring in a 2–1 type match), but misidentified the winner due to undervalued home advantage and stale player data. A targeted feature update could lift accuracy in similar MLS fixtures.
Halftime at Anfield: Liverpool 2–0 Everton
🔮 Second-half projection (Markov + time-series):
⚽ Likeliest final: Liverpool 3–1
📊 Goal timing peaks:
51’ 🔴 Liverpool surge
68’ 🔵 Everton’s window
84’ 🔴 Liverpool late push
#MerseysideDerby #LFC #EFC #PremierLeague
🔮 Second-half projection (Markov + time-series):
⚽ Likeliest final: Liverpool 3–1
📊 Goal timing peaks:
51’ 🔴 Liverpool surge
68’ 🔵 Everton’s window
84’ 🔴 Liverpool late push
#MerseysideDerby #LFC #EFC #PremierLeague
September 20, 2025 at 12:26 PM
Halftime at Anfield: Liverpool 2–0 Everton
🔮 Second-half projection (Markov + time-series):
⚽ Likeliest final: Liverpool 3–1
📊 Goal timing peaks:
51’ 🔴 Liverpool surge
68’ 🔵 Everton’s window
84’ 🔴 Liverpool late push
#MerseysideDerby #LFC #EFC #PremierLeague
🔮 Second-half projection (Markov + time-series):
⚽ Likeliest final: Liverpool 3–1
📊 Goal timing peaks:
51’ 🔴 Liverpool surge
68’ 🔵 Everton’s window
84’ 🔴 Liverpool late push
#MerseysideDerby #LFC #EFC #PremierLeague
Match: Fulham vs Manchester United
Model: Random Forest
Elo: Fulham: 1570.7 Manchester United: 1561.5
Outcome Probabilities:
Home: 31.33% (CI 29.72% - 32.95%)
Draw: 44.67% (CI 42.93% - 46.40%)
Away: 24.00% (CI 22.51% - 25.49%)
Top scorelines: 1-1 (0.106), 1-2 (0.088), 2-1 (0.079)
Model: Random Forest
Elo: Fulham: 1570.7 Manchester United: 1561.5
Outcome Probabilities:
Home: 31.33% (CI 29.72% - 32.95%)
Draw: 44.67% (CI 42.93% - 46.40%)
Away: 24.00% (CI 22.51% - 25.49%)
Top scorelines: 1-1 (0.106), 1-2 (0.088), 2-1 (0.079)
![Our New model which is still a work in progress. Match: Fulham vs Manchester United
Model: Random Forest
Elo: Fulham: 1570.7 Manchester United: 1561.5
Outcome Probabilities:
Home: 31.33% (CI 29.72% - 32.95%)
Draw: 44.67% (CI 42.93% - 46.40%)
Away: 24.00% (CI 22.51% - 25.49%)
Expected Goals: Fulham: 1.49 Manchester United: 1.66
Bootstrapped Poisson Prediction for Home Goals
Predicted Home Goals: 1.50
95% Confidence Interval: [0.00, 4.00]
Bootstrapped Poisson Prediction for Away Goals
Predicted Away Goals: 1.66
95% Confidence Interval: [0.00, 5.00]
Poisson Markets:
Over 2.5: 61.00% Under 2.5: 39.00%
BTTS Yes: 62.76% BTTS No: 37.24%
Top scorelines: 1-1 (0.106), 1-2 (0.088), 2-1 (0.079), 0-1 (0.071), 2-2 (0.066)
Monte Carlo (selected model):
Home wins: 3163 Draws: 4492 Away wins: 2345 (N=10000)](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:x3jcpo3c3gis33hs4j2vgldb/bafkreibdri53e6ifvimvct6brbnax34s4fdj5w742lwvdcw3ytjigsmhh4@jpeg)
August 21, 2025 at 1:00 PM
Match: Fulham vs Manchester United
Model: Random Forest
Elo: Fulham: 1570.7 Manchester United: 1561.5
Outcome Probabilities:
Home: 31.33% (CI 29.72% - 32.95%)
Draw: 44.67% (CI 42.93% - 46.40%)
Away: 24.00% (CI 22.51% - 25.49%)
Top scorelines: 1-1 (0.106), 1-2 (0.088), 2-1 (0.079)
Model: Random Forest
Elo: Fulham: 1570.7 Manchester United: 1561.5
Outcome Probabilities:
Home: 31.33% (CI 29.72% - 32.95%)
Draw: 44.67% (CI 42.93% - 46.40%)
Away: 24.00% (CI 22.51% - 25.49%)
Top scorelines: 1-1 (0.106), 1-2 (0.088), 2-1 (0.079)
Working on our newest most comprehensive model.
Match: Brentford vs Aston Villa
Model: Random Forest
Elo: Brentford: 1571.8 Aston Villa: 1597.2
Outcome Probabilities:
Home: 33.33% (CI 31.69% - 34.98%)
Draw: 38.00% (CI 36.31% - 39.69%)
Away: 28.67% (CI 27.09% - 30.24%)
Match: Brentford vs Aston Villa
Model: Random Forest
Elo: Brentford: 1571.8 Aston Villa: 1597.2
Outcome Probabilities:
Home: 33.33% (CI 31.69% - 34.98%)
Draw: 38.00% (CI 36.31% - 39.69%)
Away: 28.67% (CI 27.09% - 30.24%)
August 18, 2025 at 7:46 PM
Working on our newest most comprehensive model.
Match: Brentford vs Aston Villa
Model: Random Forest
Elo: Brentford: 1571.8 Aston Villa: 1597.2
Outcome Probabilities:
Home: 33.33% (CI 31.69% - 34.98%)
Draw: 38.00% (CI 36.31% - 39.69%)
Away: 28.67% (CI 27.09% - 30.24%)
Match: Brentford vs Aston Villa
Model: Random Forest
Elo: Brentford: 1571.8 Aston Villa: 1597.2
Outcome Probabilities:
Home: 33.33% (CI 31.69% - 34.98%)
Draw: 38.00% (CI 36.31% - 39.69%)
Away: 28.67% (CI 27.09% - 30.24%)
Charlotte FC vs NYCFC Prediction
July 9, 2025 at 2:50 PM
Charlotte FC vs NYCFC Prediction
Both Superman and Santa are immigrants (Santa lives at Noeth Pole Alaska). And neither ever get ATC clearance before flying around our airspace.
July 8, 2025 at 4:38 PM
Both Superman and Santa are immigrants (Santa lives at Noeth Pole Alaska). And neither ever get ATC clearance before flying around our airspace.
SmartBet Ai evaluates the Manchester United vs West Ham match. youtu.be/2X2N_TJrjc4
May 8, 2025 at 11:07 AM
SmartBet Ai evaluates the Manchester United vs West Ham match. youtu.be/2X2N_TJrjc4
Attached is our newest AI Poisson Regression Model Prediction.
Our Senior Strategist's pick (Human):
Bournemouth 1 Manchester City 2. Compare with Poisson regression probabilities.
Our Senior Strategist's pick (Human):
Bournemouth 1 Manchester City 2. Compare with Poisson regression probabilities.
March 30, 2025 at 9:54 AM
Attached is our newest AI Poisson Regression Model Prediction.
Our Senior Strategist's pick (Human):
Bournemouth 1 Manchester City 2. Compare with Poisson regression probabilities.
Our Senior Strategist's pick (Human):
Bournemouth 1 Manchester City 2. Compare with Poisson regression probabilities.
EPL Trivia Question.
Only one club has gone an entire Premier League season unbeaten. Which club was it, and in which season did they achieve this feat?
ANSWER ON ATTCHMENT
Only one club has gone an entire Premier League season unbeaten. Which club was it, and in which season did they achieve this feat?
ANSWER ON ATTCHMENT
March 30, 2025 at 1:17 AM
EPL Trivia Question.
Only one club has gone an entire Premier League season unbeaten. Which club was it, and in which season did they achieve this feat?
ANSWER ON ATTCHMENT
Only one club has gone an entire Premier League season unbeaten. Which club was it, and in which season did they achieve this feat?
ANSWER ON ATTCHMENT
Testing Our SmartBet AI NBA Addition. ✅ Poisson regression prediction complete for the Clippers vs. Mavericks matchup:
LA Clippers projected points: 112.4
Dallas Mavericks projected points: 114.8
LA Clippers projected points: 112.4
Dallas Mavericks projected points: 114.8
March 29, 2025 at 10:57 PM
Testing Our SmartBet AI NBA Addition. ✅ Poisson regression prediction complete for the Clippers vs. Mavericks matchup:
LA Clippers projected points: 112.4
Dallas Mavericks projected points: 114.8
LA Clippers projected points: 112.4
Dallas Mavericks projected points: 114.8
⚔️ Match Prediction Report: Iceland vs Kosovo
📊 Data-powered insights from Poisson xG, Monte Carlo sims & ML models
🇽🇰 Kosovo favored, but surprises are possible
📊 Data-powered insights from Poisson xG, Monte Carlo sims & ML models
🇽🇰 Kosovo favored, but surprises are possible
March 23, 2025 at 1:57 PM
⚔️ Match Prediction Report: Iceland vs Kosovo
📊 Data-powered insights from Poisson xG, Monte Carlo sims & ML models
🇽🇰 Kosovo favored, but surprises are possible
📊 Data-powered insights from Poisson xG, Monte Carlo sims & ML models
🇽🇰 Kosovo favored, but surprises are possible
🔥 New Match Intelligence Report!
🇭🇺 Hungary vs 🇹🇷 Türkiye — Data-driven prediction, xG analysis, Bayesian uncertainty & Monte Carlo sims.
📊 Probabilities, visuals, and model stacking inside.
#FootballAnalytics #UEFANationsLeague #MatchPrediction #DataScienceFC
🇭🇺 Hungary vs 🇹🇷 Türkiye — Data-driven prediction, xG analysis, Bayesian uncertainty & Monte Carlo sims.
📊 Probabilities, visuals, and model stacking inside.
#FootballAnalytics #UEFANationsLeague #MatchPrediction #DataScienceFC
March 23, 2025 at 1:49 PM
🔥 New Match Intelligence Report!
🇭🇺 Hungary vs 🇹🇷 Türkiye — Data-driven prediction, xG analysis, Bayesian uncertainty & Monte Carlo sims.
📊 Probabilities, visuals, and model stacking inside.
#FootballAnalytics #UEFANationsLeague #MatchPrediction #DataScienceFC
🇭🇺 Hungary vs 🇹🇷 Türkiye — Data-driven prediction, xG analysis, Bayesian uncertainty & Monte Carlo sims.
📊 Probabilities, visuals, and model stacking inside.
#FootballAnalytics #UEFANationsLeague #MatchPrediction #DataScienceFC
@mcuban.bsky.social Everyone like this post if you think Mark Cuban should run for President. Really, can he do any worse than the billionaire ruling the country now (and not Trump).
March 17, 2025 at 7:05 AM
@mcuban.bsky.social Everyone like this post if you think Mark Cuban should run for President. Really, can he do any worse than the billionaire ruling the country now (and not Trump).
Nottingham Vs Brighton, AI Prediciton.
January 29, 2025 at 6:14 AM
Nottingham Vs Brighton, AI Prediciton.
Nottingham Vs Brighton, AI Prediciton.
January 29, 2025 at 6:13 AM
Nottingham Vs Brighton, AI Prediciton.
AI Prediction for Ipswich vs Southampton.
January 29, 2025 at 5:56 AM
AI Prediction for Ipswich vs Southampton.
I am trying to create a real time AI Neural network that can gage voter sentiment in Realtime and even help to craft messages that will resonate with voters.
January 28, 2025 at 6:36 PM
I am trying to create a real time AI Neural network that can gage voter sentiment in Realtime and even help to craft messages that will resonate with voters.
Brentford VS Arsenal
Poisson Regression: Home 1 away 3
--------------------------------------------
### 🔄 **Monte Carlo Simulation Results:**
- **Home Wins:** 1311 (13.11%)
- **Draws:** 2194 (21.94%)
- **Away Wins:** 6495 (64.95%)
Poisson Regression: Home 1 away 3
--------------------------------------------
### 🔄 **Monte Carlo Simulation Results:**
- **Home Wins:** 1311 (13.11%)
- **Draws:** 2194 (21.94%)
- **Away Wins:** 6495 (64.95%)
December 31, 2024 at 11:57 AM
Brentford VS Arsenal
Poisson Regression: Home 1 away 3
--------------------------------------------
### 🔄 **Monte Carlo Simulation Results:**
- **Home Wins:** 1311 (13.11%)
- **Draws:** 2194 (21.94%)
- **Away Wins:** 6495 (64.95%)
Poisson Regression: Home 1 away 3
--------------------------------------------
### 🔄 **Monte Carlo Simulation Results:**
- **Home Wins:** 1311 (13.11%)
- **Draws:** 2194 (21.94%)
- **Away Wins:** 6495 (64.95%)
Update on Aston Villa Vs Brighton
Poisson regression predicts 2-1 scoreline. Full prediction attached.
Poisson regression predicts 2-1 scoreline. Full prediction attached.
December 30, 2024 at 5:51 PM
Update on Aston Villa Vs Brighton
Poisson regression predicts 2-1 scoreline. Full prediction attached.
Poisson regression predicts 2-1 scoreline. Full prediction attached.
Update on Ai prediction on Aston Villa-Brighton
Poisson Regression predicts 2-1 attached is full prediction
Poisson Regression predicts 2-1 attached is full prediction
December 30, 2024 at 5:49 PM
Update on Ai prediction on Aston Villa-Brighton
Poisson Regression predicts 2-1 attached is full prediction
Poisson Regression predicts 2-1 attached is full prediction
Update on Aston Villa VS Brighton
AI Poisson Regression 2-1. Full statistical breakdown attached. This is for informational purposes. Random Forest still over fitting.
AI Poisson Regression 2-1. Full statistical breakdown attached. This is for informational purposes. Random Forest still over fitting.
December 30, 2024 at 5:14 PM
Update on Aston Villa VS Brighton
AI Poisson Regression 2-1. Full statistical breakdown attached. This is for informational purposes. Random Forest still over fitting.
AI Poisson Regression 2-1. Full statistical breakdown attached. This is for informational purposes. Random Forest still over fitting.
GamerGate? Your kidding, right? Carter was extremely intelligent. He was adept at nuclear engineering even though he did not have advanced degrees. And unlike Trump, Carter served his country honorably.
December 30, 2024 at 10:33 AM
GamerGate? Your kidding, right? Carter was extremely intelligent. He was adept at nuclear engineering even though he did not have advanced degrees. And unlike Trump, Carter served his country honorably.