Gabriel Sterne
@gabrielsterne.bsky.social
Emerging markets, central banks, other stuff.
Economist, Oxford Economics, previously Exotix, BoE, IMF, CB of Solomon Islands (ODI)
Economist, Oxford Economics, previously Exotix, BoE, IMF, CB of Solomon Islands (ODI)
Not often I disagree with my colleague Sergi Lanau but I think his wild claim that Senegal's bonds could be 25% overvalued may be a bit..... well.... optimistic for bondholders
Unmissable note should you be one of our clients my.oxfordeconomics.com/reportaction...
Unmissable note should you be one of our clients my.oxfordeconomics.com/reportaction...
November 7, 2025 at 9:48 AM
Not often I disagree with my colleague Sergi Lanau but I think his wild claim that Senegal's bonds could be 25% overvalued may be a bit..... well.... optimistic for bondholders
Unmissable note should you be one of our clients my.oxfordeconomics.com/reportaction...
Unmissable note should you be one of our clients my.oxfordeconomics.com/reportaction...
EM Asia now clearly the most vulnerable in my latest global tariff rankings.
August 12, 2025 at 9:49 AM
EM Asia now clearly the most vulnerable in my latest global tariff rankings.
Trump caves in to pressure to make chart scales more suitable for non-Chinese economies
May 12, 2025 at 8:18 AM
Trump caves in to pressure to make chart scales more suitable for non-Chinese economies
My own bit of paradise after London Marathon. Blew up in last 5k but still got PB of 3.03.
Amazing support so much appreciated. Love the way Brits become the most friendly folk in world to those with marathon medal
Amazing support so much appreciated. Love the way Brits become the most friendly folk in world to those with marathon medal
April 29, 2025 at 5:28 AM
My own bit of paradise after London Marathon. Blew up in last 5k but still got PB of 3.03.
Amazing support so much appreciated. Love the way Brits become the most friendly folk in world to those with marathon medal
Amazing support so much appreciated. Love the way Brits become the most friendly folk in world to those with marathon medal
A 19pt swing in net approval since inauguration... even before Main St endures tariff impact. When are the mid-terms? When will he start to lose his grip on US inc. and Republican politicians?
www.natesilver.net/p/trump-appr...
www.natesilver.net/p/trump-appr...
April 25, 2025 at 6:57 AM
A 19pt swing in net approval since inauguration... even before Main St endures tariff impact. When are the mid-terms? When will he start to lose his grip on US inc. and Republican politicians?
www.natesilver.net/p/trump-appr...
www.natesilver.net/p/trump-appr...
Good news for Japan, Korea, Germany. Its not just about how much the US is tariffing you, but also how much the US is tariffing your competitors...
For now thats mainly an issue of how much you compete with China in US markets, but that could change faster than you can say the word "liberation"
For now thats mainly an issue of how much you compete with China in US markets, but that could change faster than you can say the word "liberation"
April 22, 2025 at 12:45 PM
Good news for Japan, Korea, Germany. Its not just about how much the US is tariffing you, but also how much the US is tariffing your competitors...
For now thats mainly an issue of how much you compete with China in US markets, but that could change faster than you can say the word "liberation"
For now thats mainly an issue of how much you compete with China in US markets, but that could change faster than you can say the word "liberation"
Non-China Asia is a big relative* winner at this stage of the tariff war season, having had a terrible start on liberation day. Their own-tariff rates have fallen dramatically relative to their competitors in US import markets (China's pain, others gain)
*Pretty much everyone is an absolute loser
*Pretty much everyone is an absolute loser
April 16, 2025 at 11:59 AM
Non-China Asia is a big relative* winner at this stage of the tariff war season, having had a terrible start on liberation day. Their own-tariff rates have fallen dramatically relative to their competitors in US import markets (China's pain, others gain)
*Pretty much everyone is an absolute loser
*Pretty much everyone is an absolute loser
No way! (from exemptions list)
April 3, 2025 at 12:51 PM
No way! (from exemptions list)
Drug users rejoice: cocaine is exempt
April 3, 2025 at 12:39 PM
Drug users rejoice: cocaine is exempt
Great news for vampires: human blood is exempt
April 3, 2025 at 12:35 PM
Great news for vampires: human blood is exempt
Anyone know the exchange rate of semi-digested fish to the dollar?
April 3, 2025 at 9:25 AM
Anyone know the exchange rate of semi-digested fish to the dollar?
Note to EM pessimists.... 24 out of top 25 growth recoveries since Covid are EMs/developing economies... and the exception is a tax dodger
January 3, 2025 at 4:35 PM
Note to EM pessimists.... 24 out of top 25 growth recoveries since Covid are EMs/developing economies... and the exception is a tax dodger
A Frexit scenario tree (from 2017). Still about right?
December 18, 2024 at 5:03 PM
A Frexit scenario tree (from 2017). Still about right?
Don’t worry it’s transitory
December 6, 2024 at 12:10 PM
Don’t worry it’s transitory
I cannot spy with my little eye something beginning with c....
....Correlation
EM FX moves since Trump won bare no resemblance to our tariff vulnerability metrics. Brazil underperformed, Asia overperformed. Hungary, South Africa and Turkey behave themselves
....Correlation
EM FX moves since Trump won bare no resemblance to our tariff vulnerability metrics. Brazil underperformed, Asia overperformed. Hungary, South Africa and Turkey behave themselves
December 3, 2024 at 4:47 PM
I cannot spy with my little eye something beginning with c....
....Correlation
EM FX moves since Trump won bare no resemblance to our tariff vulnerability metrics. Brazil underperformed, Asia overperformed. Hungary, South Africa and Turkey behave themselves
....Correlation
EM FX moves since Trump won bare no resemblance to our tariff vulnerability metrics. Brazil underperformed, Asia overperformed. Hungary, South Africa and Turkey behave themselves
This is our summary of global assets impact on EM assets in the aftermath of Trump's win.
Slightly negative overall (red line) as negative impact of higher global yields offsets positive impact of global risk-on.
As for tariffs, markets have hardly begun to take a view
Slightly negative overall (red line) as negative impact of higher global yields offsets positive impact of global risk-on.
As for tariffs, markets have hardly begun to take a view
December 2, 2024 at 1:13 PM
This is our summary of global assets impact on EM assets in the aftermath of Trump's win.
Slightly negative overall (red line) as negative impact of higher global yields offsets positive impact of global risk-on.
As for tariffs, markets have hardly begun to take a view
Slightly negative overall (red line) as negative impact of higher global yields offsets positive impact of global risk-on.
As for tariffs, markets have hardly begun to take a view
Shoot me down! Im going for the under-rated
November 21, 2024 at 5:33 PM
Shoot me down! Im going for the under-rated
Thanks to Oxford Economics editors for letting me have this one
November 21, 2024 at 4:52 PM
Thanks to Oxford Economics editors for letting me have this one
Delighted to announce my first professional running contract, £10 off my next race
November 21, 2024 at 4:23 PM
Delighted to announce my first professional running contract, £10 off my next race
Q. Are EM FX overvalued?
A. All depends on whether you factor in global demand for dollar assets. If you dont do that, then EM FX competitive (ie few current account pressures). But from a pure valuation perspective, you cant ignore capital account, so EM FX slightly overvalued.
A. All depends on whether you factor in global demand for dollar assets. If you dont do that, then EM FX competitive (ie few current account pressures). But from a pure valuation perspective, you cant ignore capital account, so EM FX slightly overvalued.
November 21, 2024 at 9:38 AM
Q. Are EM FX overvalued?
A. All depends on whether you factor in global demand for dollar assets. If you dont do that, then EM FX competitive (ie few current account pressures). But from a pure valuation perspective, you cant ignore capital account, so EM FX slightly overvalued.
A. All depends on whether you factor in global demand for dollar assets. If you dont do that, then EM FX competitive (ie few current account pressures). But from a pure valuation perspective, you cant ignore capital account, so EM FX slightly overvalued.
No surprise that Ukraine's sovereign bonds rallied after Trump victory, but our baseline remains one of extended conflict, says @evghenia.bsky.social . We are concerned about limited Putin incentives to end war as US policy shift hands him the initiative.... and debt scenarios are discouraging
November 18, 2024 at 4:21 PM
No surprise that Ukraine's sovereign bonds rallied after Trump victory, but our baseline remains one of extended conflict, says @evghenia.bsky.social . We are concerned about limited Putin incentives to end war as US policy shift hands him the initiative.... and debt scenarios are discouraging
Asian EMs appear most vulnerable to US tariffs.
Reasonable to just vulnerabilities to Trump tariffs by 1. how open, 2. Trade surplus with US, 3. exports to China.
Reasonable to just vulnerabilities to Trump tariffs by 1. how open, 2. Trade surplus with US, 3. exports to China.
November 18, 2024 at 3:46 PM
Asian EMs appear most vulnerable to US tariffs.
Reasonable to just vulnerabilities to Trump tariffs by 1. how open, 2. Trade surplus with US, 3. exports to China.
Reasonable to just vulnerabilities to Trump tariffs by 1. how open, 2. Trade surplus with US, 3. exports to China.
Since Trump won, EM FX have responded, broadly in line with vulnerabilities we have identified (underline broadly!).
Plenty of vol to come, I feel, as various downside risks not yet priced in
[Vulnerabilities compile Trump scenarios, market betas, trade, previous US, elections, country risk]
Plenty of vol to come, I feel, as various downside risks not yet priced in
[Vulnerabilities compile Trump scenarios, market betas, trade, previous US, elections, country risk]
November 15, 2024 at 9:07 AM
Since Trump won, EM FX have responded, broadly in line with vulnerabilities we have identified (underline broadly!).
Plenty of vol to come, I feel, as various downside risks not yet priced in
[Vulnerabilities compile Trump scenarios, market betas, trade, previous US, elections, country risk]
Plenty of vol to come, I feel, as various downside risks not yet priced in
[Vulnerabilities compile Trump scenarios, market betas, trade, previous US, elections, country risk]
Lots to discuss about EM FX response to Trump 2024 victory with that of Trump 2016 victory. Across currencies, its a tiny bit negatively correlated(!)
November 11, 2024 at 12:03 PM
Lots to discuss about EM FX response to Trump 2024 victory with that of Trump 2016 victory. Across currencies, its a tiny bit negatively correlated(!)