Aroy
@fusiona.bsky.social
Paradigm Shock Podcast person. Finance and Tech guy, Quality of Money Monetary Theory, Global macro, digital assets and financial infrastructure, sometimes politics, music, sports - especially soccer. Fair weather Manchester United fan
3 point win?! Try 13+ !!! HAHAHAHA
November 9, 2025 at 6:45 PM
3 point win?! Try 13+ !!! HAHAHAHA
My guess is that some of the worst polls were sampling very poorly. To the extent they are transparent, they were assuming an electorate that looked like 2024, which was a poor assumption
November 7, 2025 at 2:58 AM
My guess is that some of the worst polls were sampling very poorly. To the extent they are transparent, they were assuming an electorate that looked like 2024, which was a poor assumption
Professor @jonmladd.bsky.social now it appears the polls had a massive 8 to 9 point miss in NJ and still very significant 4.5 to 5.0 point miss in VA, so quite a bit worse than the polling misses in 2016/20/24.
November 5, 2025 at 1:55 PM
Professor @jonmladd.bsky.social now it appears the polls had a massive 8 to 9 point miss in NJ and still very significant 4.5 to 5.0 point miss in VA, so quite a bit worse than the polling misses in 2016/20/24.
Great job Elliot! State Navigate seems to have done a fine job, along with your former employer over at the Economist/YouGov, and Zogby this morning even in NJ. Now please come up with a pollster rating for these crapsters like Quantus, Atlas, Emerson, Insider, etc
November 5, 2025 at 5:01 AM
Great job Elliot! State Navigate seems to have done a fine job, along with your former employer over at the Economist/YouGov, and Zogby this morning even in NJ. Now please come up with a pollster rating for these crapsters like Quantus, Atlas, Emerson, Insider, etc
Would love to see you start a pollster rating, after their wild misses, especially in NJ and most especially with these really "Sus" pollsters that you are well aware of. Even Emerson which I gather is a professional outfit, but they seem to lean really right in recent years, especially in NJ Gov
November 5, 2025 at 4:55 AM
Would love to see you start a pollster rating, after their wild misses, especially in NJ and most especially with these really "Sus" pollsters that you are well aware of. Even Emerson which I gather is a professional outfit, but they seem to lean really right in recent years, especially in NJ Gov
Pure evil. Unbelievable and sad there isn't more outrage. Total failure of mainstream outlets and elites
October 25, 2025 at 2:56 AM
Pure evil. Unbelievable and sad there isn't more outrage. Total failure of mainstream outlets and elites
Thanks for posting ths!
September 12, 2025 at 10:11 PM
Thanks for posting ths!
Where is the source information for the 2028 H2H matchup with Newsome up 8? I couldn't find it in the Yahoo/Youguv report and no link here
September 5, 2025 at 4:35 PM
Where is the source information for the 2028 H2H matchup with Newsome up 8? I couldn't find it in the Yahoo/Youguv report and no link here
@peark.es and other resident BlueSky #financebros may find this episode interesting
August 13, 2025 at 4:37 PM
@peark.es and other resident BlueSky #financebros may find this episode interesting
Absolutely right on the issue of not having secret police! This is also an example of how labor solidarity is REALLY hard and remains one of Marx’ worst predictions that workers would drop national (or perhaps ethnic as well?) differences and identities and see themselves as “workers of the world”
July 12, 2025 at 3:10 PM
Absolutely right on the issue of not having secret police! This is also an example of how labor solidarity is REALLY hard and remains one of Marx’ worst predictions that workers would drop national (or perhaps ethnic as well?) differences and identities and see themselves as “workers of the world”