Also consistent with PMIs showing cooling prices and weaker employment. August cut all but guaranteed, next question is if Bailey and the less hawkish MPC members join the doves to increase pace of cuts

The IMF’s January 2024 forecast for the UK was 0.6% which seems very close to estimated outturn based on 3 quarters + 2 months of Q4.

Not saying they’ll be right, but it’s not far fetched at all.

(HMT independent forecasts average was 0.4% for 2024)

Rise in yields driven in part by US. Also largely by stronger growth expectations due to Budget measures. I don’t think that’s a reason for unravelling but an intended consequence.

If we do have a recession (BoE upgraded November forecasts) we would have more rate cuts and a fall in borrowing costs

Trump also doesn’t seem to care much about services compared to goods

I think he forgot his boss was elected to solve the debt problem

Musk also came out in support of Lutnick on X. Looks like he’s nailed on and the global economy is getting screwed.