fplsopho
@fplsopho.bsky.social
@fplreview/@livefpl Elite 1k and Analytics Elite 64 Qualifier League. 2x Top 5ks in last 3 years.
EV gain on T100k vs actual outcome GW23-29 per @FPLOptimized
23: +2.71 vs -8.11
24: +7.22 vs -3.42
25: +10.34 vs -0.91
26: +8.36 vs -30.95
27: -0.98 vs -4.53
28: +1.35 vs -2.60
29: +3.25 vs -16.05
Total. 32.25 vs -66.57. Almost (100) in 8GWs.
Rank: 111k - 357k.
Just utterly horrific…
23: +2.71 vs -8.11
24: +7.22 vs -3.42
25: +10.34 vs -0.91
26: +8.36 vs -30.95
27: -0.98 vs -4.53
28: +1.35 vs -2.60
29: +3.25 vs -16.05
Total. 32.25 vs -66.57. Almost (100) in 8GWs.
Rank: 111k - 357k.
Just utterly horrific…
March 16, 2025 at 11:31 PM
EV gain on T100k vs actual outcome GW23-29 per @FPLOptimized
23: +2.71 vs -8.11
24: +7.22 vs -3.42
25: +10.34 vs -0.91
26: +8.36 vs -30.95
27: -0.98 vs -4.53
28: +1.35 vs -2.60
29: +3.25 vs -16.05
Total. 32.25 vs -66.57. Almost (100) in 8GWs.
Rank: 111k - 357k.
Just utterly horrific…
23: +2.71 vs -8.11
24: +7.22 vs -3.42
25: +10.34 vs -0.91
26: +8.36 vs -30.95
27: -0.98 vs -4.53
28: +1.35 vs -2.60
29: +3.25 vs -16.05
Total. 32.25 vs -66.57. Almost (100) in 8GWs.
Rank: 111k - 357k.
Just utterly horrific…
GW29. As planned, TAA + Salah + Ndiaye -> Gvardiol + Øde + Haaland with 3/4FTs/0.0 ITB.
The TAA injury cemented this line I’ve had planned for over a week.
Zero doubt or hesitation on flipping the premiums. The time to grab all available EV and risk is *now*. 257k 🌎 #FPL
The TAA injury cemented this line I’ve had planned for over a week.
Zero doubt or hesitation on flipping the premiums. The time to grab all available EV and risk is *now*. 257k 🌎 #FPL
March 14, 2025 at 11:26 PM
GW29. As planned, TAA + Salah + Ndiaye -> Gvardiol + Øde + Haaland with 3/4FTs/0.0 ITB.
The TAA injury cemented this line I’ve had planned for over a week.
Zero doubt or hesitation on flipping the premiums. The time to grab all available EV and risk is *now*. 257k 🌎 #FPL
The TAA injury cemented this line I’ve had planned for over a week.
Zero doubt or hesitation on flipping the premiums. The time to grab all available EV and risk is *now*. 257k 🌎 #FPL
Another poor week and red arrow.
A good reminder recently of how silly this game is. Having rolled to 5FTs and then grabbed a truck of EV doing Emery, Sarr, Rogers, Bruno -> Arteta, Semenyo, Dango, Trossard across 25-26, I am currently 49 points down from those FTs. #FPL
A good reminder recently of how silly this game is. Having rolled to 5FTs and then grabbed a truck of EV doing Emery, Sarr, Rogers, Bruno -> Arteta, Semenyo, Dango, Trossard across 25-26, I am currently 49 points down from those FTs. #FPL
February 27, 2025 at 9:39 AM
Another poor week and red arrow.
A good reminder recently of how silly this game is. Having rolled to 5FTs and then grabbed a truck of EV doing Emery, Sarr, Rogers, Bruno -> Arteta, Semenyo, Dango, Trossard across 25-26, I am currently 49 points down from those FTs. #FPL
A good reminder recently of how silly this game is. Having rolled to 5FTs and then grabbed a truck of EV doing Emery, Sarr, Rogers, Bruno -> Arteta, Semenyo, Dango, Trossard across 25-26, I am currently 49 points down from those FTs. #FPL
GW27 - roll 2 FTs with 3.1m ITB.
Whilst tempting to grab some dopamine/EV (e.g. Cunha/Bowen), particularly after my biggest negvar GW all time, I think this is strong enough to roll with most teams playing 2x ahead of GW28/BGW29 and so many options. Very easy captaincy.
#FPL
Whilst tempting to grab some dopamine/EV (e.g. Cunha/Bowen), particularly after my biggest negvar GW all time, I think this is strong enough to roll with most teams playing 2x ahead of GW28/BGW29 and so many options. Very easy captaincy.
#FPL
February 24, 2025 at 2:12 PM
GW27 - roll 2 FTs with 3.1m ITB.
Whilst tempting to grab some dopamine/EV (e.g. Cunha/Bowen), particularly after my biggest negvar GW all time, I think this is strong enough to roll with most teams playing 2x ahead of GW28/BGW29 and so many options. Very easy captaincy.
#FPL
Whilst tempting to grab some dopamine/EV (e.g. Cunha/Bowen), particularly after my biggest negvar GW all time, I think this is strong enough to roll with most teams playing 2x ahead of GW28/BGW29 and so many options. Very easy captaincy.
#FPL
GW26 - 56 points and a big red from 112k to 230k.
No regrets having grabbed:
-0.8 EV on Arteta over Glasner
~0.3 EV benching Munoz.
~0.1 EV captaining Trossard over Mo…
…and losing 44 points from it.
Got screwed benching JP/buying Dango by information withheld. #FPL
No regrets having grabbed:
-0.8 EV on Arteta over Glasner
~0.3 EV benching Munoz.
~0.1 EV captaining Trossard over Mo…
…and losing 44 points from it.
Got screwed benching JP/buying Dango by information withheld. #FPL
February 23, 2025 at 7:15 PM
GW26 - 56 points and a big red from 112k to 230k.
No regrets having grabbed:
-0.8 EV on Arteta over Glasner
~0.3 EV benching Munoz.
~0.1 EV captaining Trossard over Mo…
…and losing 44 points from it.
Got screwed benching JP/buying Dango by information withheld. #FPL
No regrets having grabbed:
-0.8 EV on Arteta over Glasner
~0.3 EV benching Munoz.
~0.1 EV captaining Trossard over Mo…
…and losing 44 points from it.
Got screwed benching JP/buying Dango by information withheld. #FPL
GW26. Rogers and Emery -> Dango and Arteta and roll a FT.
A number of potential options of when and how to remove Ndiaye/Rogers and struggled to feel any conviction on any of them.
Trossard C for some EV+ risk against the field. Need a big week this week. 112k 🌎 #FPL
A number of potential options of when and how to remove Ndiaye/Rogers and struggled to feel any conviction on any of them.
Trossard C for some EV+ risk against the field. Need a big week this week. 112k 🌎 #FPL
February 21, 2025 at 7:58 PM
GW26. Rogers and Emery -> Dango and Arteta and roll a FT.
A number of potential options of when and how to remove Ndiaye/Rogers and struggled to feel any conviction on any of them.
Trossard C for some EV+ risk against the field. Need a big week this week. 112k 🌎 #FPL
A number of potential options of when and how to remove Ndiaye/Rogers and struggled to feel any conviction on any of them.
Trossard C for some EV+ risk against the field. Need a big week this week. 112k 🌎 #FPL
GW25. 98 points. 127k - 112k.
Small gains relative to expectation 🫤
Plenty to ponder going into this week. I need to do something with 2xFT available after AM transfer to move on Rogers/Ndiaye but waiting for info feels critical given planning to delay FH until 34.
#FPL
Small gains relative to expectation 🫤
Plenty to ponder going into this week. I need to do something with 2xFT available after AM transfer to move on Rogers/Ndiaye but waiting for info feels critical given planning to delay FH until 34.
#FPL
February 19, 2025 at 9:39 PM
GW25. 98 points. 127k - 112k.
Small gains relative to expectation 🫤
Plenty to ponder going into this week. I need to do something with 2xFT available after AM transfer to move on Rogers/Ndiaye but waiting for info feels critical given planning to delay FH until 34.
#FPL
Small gains relative to expectation 🫤
Plenty to ponder going into this week. I need to do something with 2xFT available after AM transfer to move on Rogers/Ndiaye but waiting for info feels critical given planning to delay FH until 34.
#FPL
GW25 - 3/5FTs used for Moyes, Sarr and Bruno -> Emery, Semenyo and Trossard.
Just about landed on the conservative line of keeping Isak over grabbing Watkins.
#FPL
Just about landed on the conservative line of keeping Isak over grabbing Watkins.
#FPL
February 14, 2025 at 5:22 PM
GW25 - 3/5FTs used for Moyes, Sarr and Bruno -> Emery, Semenyo and Trossard.
Just about landed on the conservative line of keeping Isak over grabbing Watkins.
#FPL
Just about landed on the conservative line of keeping Isak over grabbing Watkins.
#FPL
GW24. Eze -> Rogers and David Moyes (1/5FT). 135k 🌎
Tight on the buy between Rogers or BOU MID. I think on balance Rogers is slightly EV- but sided with an extra week of info to decide which BOU MID (ie chip strategy) and a cheaper expected purchase price on Rogers. #FPL
Tight on the buy between Rogers or BOU MID. I think on balance Rogers is slightly EV- but sided with an extra week of info to decide which BOU MID (ie chip strategy) and a cheaper expected purchase price on Rogers. #FPL
February 1, 2025 at 9:59 AM
GW24. Eze -> Rogers and David Moyes (1/5FT). 135k 🌎
Tight on the buy between Rogers or BOU MID. I think on balance Rogers is slightly EV- but sided with an extra week of info to decide which BOU MID (ie chip strategy) and a cheaper expected purchase price on Rogers. #FPL
Tight on the buy between Rogers or BOU MID. I think on balance Rogers is slightly EV- but sided with an extra week of info to decide which BOU MID (ie chip strategy) and a cheaper expected purchase price on Rogers. #FPL
GW23. 57 pts. 111k - 135k.
All my shields did points and my swords did not (bar the three on the bench).
Annus horribilis.
Now to decide whether to move Sarr onto a Bournemouth MID or have a one week flirt with an Everton MID. Tough call whether to go tomorrow or wait.
#FPL
All my shields did points and my swords did not (bar the three on the bench).
Annus horribilis.
Now to decide whether to move Sarr onto a Bournemouth MID or have a one week flirt with an Everton MID. Tough call whether to go tomorrow or wait.
#FPL
January 26, 2025 at 9:07 PM
GW23. 57 pts. 111k - 135k.
All my shields did points and my swords did not (bar the three on the bench).
Annus horribilis.
Now to decide whether to move Sarr onto a Bournemouth MID or have a one week flirt with an Everton MID. Tough call whether to go tomorrow or wait.
#FPL
All my shields did points and my swords did not (bar the three on the bench).
Annus horribilis.
Now to decide whether to move Sarr onto a Bournemouth MID or have a one week flirt with an Everton MID. Tough call whether to go tomorrow or wait.
#FPL
GW22 - 60. 159k - 111k.
LIV finally cleaned and Ndiaye did a goal 🎉 (Wood 😴)
Critics of analytics will say models lead to boring and homogenous play but he’s 0.0% owned in the field and had 0 ownership in the E1k until GW20 ✅
Plan to roll in 23 to 5FTs, DCL GW24
#FPL
LIV finally cleaned and Ndiaye did a goal 🎉 (Wood 😴)
Critics of analytics will say models lead to boring and homogenous play but he’s 0.0% owned in the field and had 0 ownership in the E1k until GW20 ✅
Plan to roll in 23 to 5FTs, DCL GW24
#FPL
January 20, 2025 at 10:17 PM
GW22 - 60. 159k - 111k.
LIV finally cleaned and Ndiaye did a goal 🎉 (Wood 😴)
Critics of analytics will say models lead to boring and homogenous play but he’s 0.0% owned in the field and had 0 ownership in the E1k until GW20 ✅
Plan to roll in 23 to 5FTs, DCL GW24
#FPL
LIV finally cleaned and Ndiaye did a goal 🎉 (Wood 😴)
Critics of analytics will say models lead to boring and homogenous play but he’s 0.0% owned in the field and had 0 ownership in the E1k until GW20 ✅
Plan to roll in 23 to 5FTs, DCL GW24
#FPL
GW22. Roll all 3 FTs as I bring a pen to this sword fight against Chris Wood.
A few injury niggles prompted me to shift the armband and promote Ndiaye into the XI again. He’s playing more than I hoped he would but that’s why I like eight attacker structures.
160k 🌎 #FPL
A few injury niggles prompted me to shift the armband and promote Ndiaye into the XI again. He’s playing more than I hoped he would but that’s why I like eight attacker structures.
160k 🌎 #FPL
January 17, 2025 at 5:15 PM
GW22. Roll all 3 FTs as I bring a pen to this sword fight against Chris Wood.
A few injury niggles prompted me to shift the armband and promote Ndiaye into the XI again. He’s playing more than I hoped he would but that’s why I like eight attacker structures.
160k 🌎 #FPL
A few injury niggles prompted me to shift the armband and promote Ndiaye into the XI again. He’s playing more than I hoped he would but that’s why I like eight attacker structures.
160k 🌎 #FPL
GW21. 67 points. 143k-159k.
Another really poor week with a red arrow in 21 and now an aggregate
red arrow in the three weeks post WC.
This week is the easiest roll of all time, hope to get luckier soon.
PS thank you to a good friend for the +1 from Ndiaye over JP. #FPL
Another really poor week with a red arrow in 21 and now an aggregate
red arrow in the three weeks post WC.
This week is the easiest roll of all time, hope to get luckier soon.
PS thank you to a good friend for the +1 from Ndiaye over JP. #FPL
January 16, 2025 at 10:56 PM
GW21. 67 points. 143k-159k.
Another really poor week with a red arrow in 21 and now an aggregate
red arrow in the three weeks post WC.
This week is the easiest roll of all time, hope to get luckier soon.
PS thank you to a good friend for the +1 from Ndiaye over JP. #FPL
Another really poor week with a red arrow in 21 and now an aggregate
red arrow in the three weeks post WC.
This week is the easiest roll of all time, hope to get luckier soon.
PS thank you to a good friend for the +1 from Ndiaye over JP. #FPL
GW21. Øde to Bruno and roll the other 2 FTs. Thin move but Semenyo EV boost and delay in McNeil RTP means I think I’ll save a FT in the plan.
Big blunder trusting the buffer on a potential Øde price drop last night which I’m really frustrated with myself about.
143k 🌎 #FPL
Big blunder trusting the buffer on a potential Øde price drop last night which I’m really frustrated with myself about.
143k 🌎 #FPL
January 13, 2025 at 10:50 PM
GW21. Øde to Bruno and roll the other 2 FTs. Thin move but Semenyo EV boost and delay in McNeil RTP means I think I’ll save a FT in the plan.
Big blunder trusting the buffer on a potential Øde price drop last night which I’m really frustrated with myself about.
143k 🌎 #FPL
Big blunder trusting the buffer on a potential Øde price drop last night which I’m really frustrated with myself about.
143k 🌎 #FPL
GW20 - 59 points and a red from 105k to 143k.
Now shipped north of 30 pts from WC19 but we’ve seen it all before.
Øde to Bruno tempts a bit but more likely to keep rolling all the way to GW23. Enjoy the week off and we’ll come back and begin planning a chip strategy. #FPL
Now shipped north of 30 pts from WC19 but we’ve seen it all before.
Øde to Bruno tempts a bit but more likely to keep rolling all the way to GW23. Enjoy the week off and we’ll come back and begin planning a chip strategy. #FPL
January 6, 2025 at 10:01 PM
GW20 - 59 points and a red from 105k to 143k.
Now shipped north of 30 pts from WC19 but we’ve seen it all before.
Øde to Bruno tempts a bit but more likely to keep rolling all the way to GW23. Enjoy the week off and we’ll come back and begin planning a chip strategy. #FPL
Now shipped north of 30 pts from WC19 but we’ve seen it all before.
Øde to Bruno tempts a bit but more likely to keep rolling all the way to GW23. Enjoy the week off and we’ll come back and begin planning a chip strategy. #FPL
GW20. Roll both FTs 🦦.
Team/EV pretty average but the juice will come GW24-29. The way this normally goes is the first sub will wipe the starting defenders clean.
105k 🌎
#FPL
Team/EV pretty average but the juice will come GW24-29. The way this normally goes is the first sub will wipe the starting defenders clean.
105k 🌎
#FPL
January 1, 2025 at 10:09 PM
GW20. Roll both FTs 🦦.
Team/EV pretty average but the juice will come GW24-29. The way this normally goes is the first sub will wipe the starting defenders clean.
105k 🌎
#FPL
Team/EV pretty average but the juice will come GW24-29. The way this normally goes is the first sub will wipe the starting defenders clean.
105k 🌎
#FPL
GW19 - 89 points. 150k-105k.
Always disappointing to wildcard out some points first up (5) but a green is a green and 105k at the half way stage (TC used) is satisfactory.
I plan to roll this all the way to 5FT in GW23 and only injuries/red cards can change this 🦦
#FPL
Always disappointing to wildcard out some points first up (5) but a green is a green and 105k at the half way stage (TC used) is satisfactory.
I plan to roll this all the way to 5FT in GW23 and only injuries/red cards can change this 🦦
#FPL
January 1, 2025 at 7:39 PM
GW19 - 89 points. 150k-105k.
Always disappointing to wildcard out some points first up (5) but a green is a green and 105k at the half way stage (TC used) is satisfactory.
I plan to roll this all the way to 5FT in GW23 and only injuries/red cards can change this 🦦
#FPL
Always disappointing to wildcard out some points first up (5) but a green is a green and 105k at the half way stage (TC used) is satisfactory.
I plan to roll this all the way to 5FT in GW23 and only injuries/red cards can change this 🦦
#FPL
WC19.
Learn as if you will live forever, live like you will die tomorrow.
Very happy with this with the DGW/BGW ahead of us.
Key decision ended up being Gabriel or not and landed just about on the former. Sarr over Semenyo is slightly greedy.
2FT, 0.0ITB, 150k 🌎
#FPL
Learn as if you will live forever, live like you will die tomorrow.
Very happy with this with the DGW/BGW ahead of us.
Key decision ended up being Gabriel or not and landed just about on the former. Sarr over Semenyo is slightly greedy.
2FT, 0.0ITB, 150k 🌎
#FPL
December 29, 2024 at 11:55 AM
WC19.
Learn as if you will live forever, live like you will die tomorrow.
Very happy with this with the DGW/BGW ahead of us.
Key decision ended up being Gabriel or not and landed just about on the former. Sarr over Semenyo is slightly greedy.
2FT, 0.0ITB, 150k 🌎
#FPL
Learn as if you will live forever, live like you will die tomorrow.
Very happy with this with the DGW/BGW ahead of us.
Key decision ended up being Gabriel or not and landed just about on the former. Sarr over Semenyo is slightly greedy.
2FT, 0.0ITB, 150k 🌎
#FPL
GW18. 63 and a red arrow from 142k to 150k.
Flekken injury and Gabriel sitter cost me about 15 points on the field tonight 😢
Into WC19 we go, which essentially consists of picking a budget mid, some defs and Alisson with one eye on DGW24/25 & BGW29. Wanted more chaos.
#FPL
Flekken injury and Gabriel sitter cost me about 15 points on the field tonight 😢
Into WC19 we go, which essentially consists of picking a budget mid, some defs and Alisson with one eye on DGW24/25 & BGW29. Wanted more chaos.
#FPL
December 27, 2024 at 11:05 PM
GW18. 63 and a red arrow from 142k to 150k.
Flekken injury and Gabriel sitter cost me about 15 points on the field tonight 😢
Into WC19 we go, which essentially consists of picking a budget mid, some defs and Alisson with one eye on DGW24/25 & BGW29. Wanted more chaos.
#FPL
Flekken injury and Gabriel sitter cost me about 15 points on the field tonight 😢
Into WC19 we go, which essentially consists of picking a budget mid, some defs and Alisson with one eye on DGW24/25 & BGW29. Wanted more chaos.
#FPL
I think 0.1m of money saved by selling Raul and having 0.1m in both Isak and Rogers is better than having 0.1 in Ode and ~0.6 extra EV in GW18.
#FPL
#FPL
GW18
2 of 3 FTs used on the dead end for Saka + Raul -> Martinelli + Isak pre WC.
Some cute assessment of forecast price moves, xMins and market data came into landing on this versus other viable lines (mainly involving Øde).
142k 🌎
Merry Christmas all - Isaiah 9:6 🎄 #FPL
2 of 3 FTs used on the dead end for Saka + Raul -> Martinelli + Isak pre WC.
Some cute assessment of forecast price moves, xMins and market data came into landing on this versus other viable lines (mainly involving Øde).
142k 🌎
Merry Christmas all - Isaiah 9:6 🎄 #FPL
December 26, 2024 at 1:41 AM
I think 0.1m of money saved by selling Raul and having 0.1m in both Isak and Rogers is better than having 0.1 in Ode and ~0.6 extra EV in GW18.
#FPL
#FPL
GW18
2 of 3 FTs used on the dead end for Saka + Raul -> Martinelli + Isak pre WC.
Some cute assessment of forecast price moves, xMins and market data came into landing on this versus other viable lines (mainly involving Øde).
142k 🌎
Merry Christmas all - Isaiah 9:6 🎄 #FPL
2 of 3 FTs used on the dead end for Saka + Raul -> Martinelli + Isak pre WC.
Some cute assessment of forecast price moves, xMins and market data came into landing on this versus other viable lines (mainly involving Øde).
142k 🌎
Merry Christmas all - Isaiah 9:6 🎄 #FPL
December 23, 2024 at 10:44 PM
GW18
2 of 3 FTs used on the dead end for Saka + Raul -> Martinelli + Isak pre WC.
Some cute assessment of forecast price moves, xMins and market data came into landing on this versus other viable lines (mainly involving Øde).
142k 🌎
Merry Christmas all - Isaiah 9:6 🎄 #FPL
2 of 3 FTs used on the dead end for Saka + Raul -> Martinelli + Isak pre WC.
Some cute assessment of forecast price moves, xMins and market data came into landing on this versus other viable lines (mainly involving Øde).
142k 🌎
Merry Christmas all - Isaiah 9:6 🎄 #FPL
GW17. 75 points. 107k - 142k.
Silly GW. Very likely to move Saka on tonight and use the funds for another upgrade before GW18 deadline ahead of WC19.
#FPL
Silly GW. Very likely to move Saka on tonight and use the funds for another upgrade before GW18 deadline ahead of WC19.
#FPL
December 22, 2024 at 10:39 PM
GW17. 75 points. 107k - 142k.
Silly GW. Very likely to move Saka on tonight and use the funds for another upgrade before GW18 deadline ahead of WC19.
#FPL
Silly GW. Very likely to move Saka on tonight and use the funds for another upgrade before GW18 deadline ahead of WC19.
#FPL
