FPL DataMonkey (Gibby)
@fpl.datamonkeys.app
#FPLDraft with a bit of #FPL, and I quite like data
Data scientist when I’m not playing FPL
🌍 London
Data scientist when I’m not playing FPL
🌍 London
Alongside all the issues with the #FPL site/app so far - not populating the DefCon points feels like a big miss.
We know they're calculated for last season (really they could easily calculate back a lot further), why not include them to help managers gauge the change?
We know they're calculated for last season (really they could easily calculate back a lot further), why not include them to help managers gauge the change?
July 22, 2025 at 2:24 PM
Alongside all the issues with the #FPL site/app so far - not populating the DefCon points feels like a big miss.
We know they're calculated for last season (really they could easily calculate back a lot further), why not include them to help managers gauge the change?
We know they're calculated for last season (really they could easily calculate back a lot further), why not include them to help managers gauge the change?
I've not found any other incidents of a non-playing member of staff being assaulted, so this could be seen as an opportunity for the FA to set a precedent. Incidents we have seen:
Suarez biting player: 10 games
Di Canio shoving ref: 11
Mitrovic shoving ref: 8
Prutton shoving ref: 10
Suarez biting player: 10 games
Di Canio shoving ref: 11
Mitrovic shoving ref: 8
Prutton shoving ref: 10
December 18, 2024 at 1:22 PM
I've not found any other incidents of a non-playing member of staff being assaulted, so this could be seen as an opportunity for the FA to set a precedent. Incidents we have seen:
Suarez biting player: 10 games
Di Canio shoving ref: 11
Mitrovic shoving ref: 8
Prutton shoving ref: 10
Suarez biting player: 10 games
Di Canio shoving ref: 11
Mitrovic shoving ref: 8
Prutton shoving ref: 10
Seen a bit of chat around Cunha's ban length, so going to drop in my two cents and the closest comparable bans I've found
Overall (my opinion): minimum 8 games, my expectation is 10-12, but could be rest of the season if the FA want to send a message
🧵
Overall (my opinion): minimum 8 games, my expectation is 10-12, but could be rest of the season if the FA want to send a message
🧵
December 18, 2024 at 1:22 PM
Seen a bit of chat around Cunha's ban length, so going to drop in my two cents and the closest comparable bans I've found
Overall (my opinion): minimum 8 games, my expectation is 10-12, but could be rest of the season if the FA want to send a message
🧵
Overall (my opinion): minimum 8 games, my expectation is 10-12, but could be rest of the season if the FA want to send a message
🧵
Finally the club are starting to trickle in over here - any I've missed of just these 5 so far?
December 16, 2024 at 9:56 AM
Finally the club are starting to trickle in over here - any I've missed of just these 5 so far?
Just checked in more detail (www.soccerstats.com/formtable.as...)
Their home opposition have had an average ppg of 0.84 (2nd-easiest home fixtures in the league).
Their away opposition have had an average ppg of 1.86 (2nd-hardest away fixtures in the league).
Their home opposition have had an average ppg of 0.84 (2nd-easiest home fixtures in the league).
Their away opposition have had an average ppg of 1.86 (2nd-hardest away fixtures in the league).
December 13, 2024 at 10:46 AM
Just checked in more detail (www.soccerstats.com/formtable.as...)
Their home opposition have had an average ppg of 0.84 (2nd-easiest home fixtures in the league).
Their away opposition have had an average ppg of 1.86 (2nd-hardest away fixtures in the league).
Their home opposition have had an average ppg of 0.84 (2nd-easiest home fixtures in the league).
Their away opposition have had an average ppg of 1.86 (2nd-hardest away fixtures in the league).
For Kerkez, he created two chances from passes - again with no video I'm stuck with a still from Twitter - but he's not been assigned any xA for this 0.94 (!!) xG miss from Tavernier!
December 12, 2024 at 2:14 PM
For Kerkez, he created two chances from passes - again with no video I'm stuck with a still from Twitter - but he's not been assigned any xA for this 0.94 (!!) xG miss from Tavernier!
Without the video I can't be sure - but no idea why this hasn't been included in Son's official xA stats - from what I can tell it definitely should be?
Here's the live text comms of it as well
Here's the live text comms of it as well
December 12, 2024 at 2:14 PM
Without the video I can't be sure - but no idea why this hasn't been included in Son's official xA stats - from what I can tell it definitely should be?
Here's the live text comms of it as well
Here's the live text comms of it as well
A couple of really interesting cases under the surface here. Firstly Son:
His xFA came from two events:
1. A corner to Sarr at 34' (0.51xFA)
2. A live pass to Solanke at 35' (0.76xFA)
Because it was a high-scoring game, Solanke's miss isn't in any highlights videos - but here's a still of it
His xFA came from two events:
1. A corner to Sarr at 34' (0.51xFA)
2. A live pass to Solanke at 35' (0.76xFA)
Because it was a high-scoring game, Solanke's miss isn't in any highlights videos - but here's a still of it
December 12, 2024 at 2:14 PM
A couple of really interesting cases under the surface here. Firstly Son:
His xFA came from two events:
1. A corner to Sarr at 34' (0.51xFA)
2. A live pass to Solanke at 35' (0.76xFA)
Because it was a high-scoring game, Solanke's miss isn't in any highlights videos - but here's a still of it
His xFA came from two events:
1. A corner to Sarr at 34' (0.51xFA)
2. A live pass to Solanke at 35' (0.76xFA)
Because it was a high-scoring game, Solanke's miss isn't in any highlights videos - but here's a still of it
--- GW15 xFA top 10 ---
A lot of underperformance in xFA at the top of the table this week - and a few interesting scenarios I wanted to look into further
Top 3:
🐓Son: 0.47xA -> 1.27xFA (0 FPL assists)
🍒 Kerkez: 0.12xA -> 1.07xFA (0 FPL assists)
🔴Havertz: 0.01xA -> 0.86xFA (1 FPL assist)
🧵
A lot of underperformance in xFA at the top of the table this week - and a few interesting scenarios I wanted to look into further
Top 3:
🐓Son: 0.47xA -> 1.27xFA (0 FPL assists)
🍒 Kerkez: 0.12xA -> 1.07xFA (0 FPL assists)
🔴Havertz: 0.01xA -> 0.86xFA (1 FPL assist)
🧵
December 12, 2024 at 2:14 PM
--- GW15 xFA top 10 ---
A lot of underperformance in xFA at the top of the table this week - and a few interesting scenarios I wanted to look into further
Top 3:
🐓Son: 0.47xA -> 1.27xFA (0 FPL assists)
🍒 Kerkez: 0.12xA -> 1.07xFA (0 FPL assists)
🔴Havertz: 0.01xA -> 0.86xFA (1 FPL assist)
🧵
A lot of underperformance in xFA at the top of the table this week - and a few interesting scenarios I wanted to look into further
Top 3:
🐓Son: 0.47xA -> 1.27xFA (0 FPL assists)
🍒 Kerkez: 0.12xA -> 1.07xFA (0 FPL assists)
🔴Havertz: 0.01xA -> 0.86xFA (1 FPL assist)
🧵
98% red arrow and Palmer (C) scored more than my entire free hit team combined 🤩
December 8, 2024 at 8:29 PM
98% red arrow and Palmer (C) scored more than my entire free hit team combined 🤩
Nothing like waking up to a storm calling off a game - 25 mins later the free hit is played and I've gone full chaos and captained KDB 😍
December 7, 2024 at 11:02 AM
Nothing like waking up to a storm calling off a game - 25 mins later the free hit is played and I've gone full chaos and captained KDB 😍
By my in-depth calculation, you should hit rank 1 on Christmas Day - a festive miracle! 🎅
December 3, 2024 at 10:08 AM
By my in-depth calculation, you should hit rank 1 on Christmas Day - a festive miracle! 🎅
--- GW13 xFA top 12 ---
Some HUGE xFA performance this week, with Evanilson probably having the highest difference between xFA and xA that we will ever see (239x higher!)
Top 3:
🍒 Evanilson: 0.01xA -> 2.39xFA thanks to 3 penalties won
🔴 Saka: 1.11xA -> 1.77xFA
🎄Jota Silva: 0.54xA -> 1.07xFA
Some HUGE xFA performance this week, with Evanilson probably having the highest difference between xFA and xA that we will ever see (239x higher!)
Top 3:
🍒 Evanilson: 0.01xA -> 2.39xFA thanks to 3 penalties won
🔴 Saka: 1.11xA -> 1.77xFA
🎄Jota Silva: 0.54xA -> 1.07xFA
December 2, 2024 at 3:34 PM
--- GW13 xFA top 12 ---
Some HUGE xFA performance this week, with Evanilson probably having the highest difference between xFA and xA that we will ever see (239x higher!)
Top 3:
🍒 Evanilson: 0.01xA -> 2.39xFA thanks to 3 penalties won
🔴 Saka: 1.11xA -> 1.77xFA
🎄Jota Silva: 0.54xA -> 1.07xFA
Some HUGE xFA performance this week, with Evanilson probably having the highest difference between xFA and xA that we will ever see (239x higher!)
Top 3:
🍒 Evanilson: 0.01xA -> 2.39xFA thanks to 3 penalties won
🔴 Saka: 1.11xA -> 1.77xFA
🎄Jota Silva: 0.54xA -> 1.07xFA
xFA from FWDs
Calculated expected FPL assists for 8 forwards - the big winner is Jackson jumping from 0.05 xA to 0.34 xFA!
That brings him up to a massive 0.94 xFGI/90 (with actual 1.04 GI/90 so far, only a small overperformance)
Cunha and JP notable too - less surprising given their roles.
Calculated expected FPL assists for 8 forwards - the big winner is Jackson jumping from 0.05 xA to 0.34 xFA!
That brings him up to a massive 0.94 xFGI/90 (with actual 1.04 GI/90 so far, only a small overperformance)
Cunha and JP notable too - less surprising given their roles.
November 28, 2024 at 8:48 PM
xFA from FWDs
Calculated expected FPL assists for 8 forwards - the big winner is Jackson jumping from 0.05 xA to 0.34 xFA!
That brings him up to a massive 0.94 xFGI/90 (with actual 1.04 GI/90 so far, only a small overperformance)
Cunha and JP notable too - less surprising given their roles.
Calculated expected FPL assists for 8 forwards - the big winner is Jackson jumping from 0.05 xA to 0.34 xFA!
That brings him up to a massive 0.94 xFGI/90 (with actual 1.04 GI/90 so far, only a small overperformance)
Cunha and JP notable too - less surprising given their roles.
--- Expected Fantasy Assists (xFA) ---
Have applied the xFA method to get a top 10 xFA/90 for this season.
1. 🔵Savio (0.71)
2. 👹Sancho (0.58)
3. 🔴Saka (0.54)
4. 🔵Nunes (0.48)
5. 🔵KDB (0.47)
6. 🦅Sarr (0.47)
7. ⚪Son (0.46)
8. 🔵Foden (0.45)
9. 🥶Palmer (0.45)
10. 🐝Damsgaard (0.43)
270+ mins played
Have applied the xFA method to get a top 10 xFA/90 for this season.
1. 🔵Savio (0.71)
2. 👹Sancho (0.58)
3. 🔴Saka (0.54)
4. 🔵Nunes (0.48)
5. 🔵KDB (0.47)
6. 🦅Sarr (0.47)
7. ⚪Son (0.46)
8. 🔵Foden (0.45)
9. 🥶Palmer (0.45)
10. 🐝Damsgaard (0.43)
270+ mins played
November 28, 2024 at 8:06 PM
--- Expected Fantasy Assists (xFA) ---
Have applied the xFA method to get a top 10 xFA/90 for this season.
1. 🔵Savio (0.71)
2. 👹Sancho (0.58)
3. 🔴Saka (0.54)
4. 🔵Nunes (0.48)
5. 🔵KDB (0.47)
6. 🦅Sarr (0.47)
7. ⚪Son (0.46)
8. 🔵Foden (0.45)
9. 🥶Palmer (0.45)
10. 🐝Damsgaard (0.43)
270+ mins played
Have applied the xFA method to get a top 10 xFA/90 for this season.
1. 🔵Savio (0.71)
2. 👹Sancho (0.58)
3. 🔴Saka (0.54)
4. 🔵Nunes (0.48)
5. 🔵KDB (0.47)
6. 🦅Sarr (0.47)
7. ⚪Son (0.46)
8. 🔵Foden (0.45)
9. 🥶Palmer (0.45)
10. 🐝Damsgaard (0.43)
270+ mins played
Finally the next-best three xFA performers from last season:
Ollie Watkins (18 assists, 4.02 xA -> 12.5 xFA)
Mo Salah (12 assists, 7.47 xA -> 15.4 xFA)
Cole Palmer (13 assists, 8.17 xA -> 13.4 xFA)
Ollie Watkins (18 assists, 4.02 xA -> 12.5 xFA)
Mo Salah (12 assists, 7.47 xA -> 15.4 xFA)
Cole Palmer (13 assists, 8.17 xA -> 13.4 xFA)
November 28, 2024 at 11:33 AM
Finally the next-best three xFA performers from last season:
Ollie Watkins (18 assists, 4.02 xA -> 12.5 xFA)
Mo Salah (12 assists, 7.47 xA -> 15.4 xFA)
Cole Palmer (13 assists, 8.17 xA -> 13.4 xFA)
Ollie Watkins (18 assists, 4.02 xA -> 12.5 xFA)
Mo Salah (12 assists, 7.47 xA -> 15.4 xFA)
Cole Palmer (13 assists, 8.17 xA -> 13.4 xFA)
Breaking down even further, we can see that Gordon gained 4.74 xFA from winning penalties - which is almost as much as his entire xA from the season!
November 28, 2024 at 11:33 AM
Breaking down even further, we can see that Gordon gained 4.74 xFA from winning penalties - which is almost as much as his entire xA from the season!
How about individual players? Who are the big xFA performers?
Anthony Gordon is our biggest gainer, going up a massive 170% from 5.4xA to 14.5xFA - getting 16 FPL assists in the season
Anthony Gordon is our biggest gainer, going up a massive 170% from 5.4xA to 14.5xFA - getting 16 FPL assists in the season
November 28, 2024 at 11:33 AM
How about individual players? Who are the big xFA performers?
Anthony Gordon is our biggest gainer, going up a massive 170% from 5.4xA to 14.5xFA - getting 16 FPL assists in the season
Anthony Gordon is our biggest gainer, going up a massive 170% from 5.4xA to 14.5xFA - getting 16 FPL assists in the season
Let's get a bit more into the details
Visualising that performance with expected vs actual FPL assists.
Once you get above 4 FPL assists the xA model really drops off. This is because high assisters almost always either win pens or get assists from rebounds alongside directly assisting shots
Visualising that performance with expected vs actual FPL assists.
Once you get above 4 FPL assists the xA model really drops off. This is because high assisters almost always either win pens or get assists from rebounds alongside directly assisting shots
November 28, 2024 at 11:33 AM
Let's get a bit more into the details
Visualising that performance with expected vs actual FPL assists.
Once you get above 4 FPL assists the xA model really drops off. This is because high assisters almost always either win pens or get assists from rebounds alongside directly assisting shots
Visualising that performance with expected vs actual FPL assists.
Once you get above 4 FPL assists the xA model really drops off. This is because high assisters almost always either win pens or get assists from rebounds alongside directly assisting shots
--- Expected Fantasy Assists (xFA) ---
Ok the results are in, how does xFA v1.0 perform in comparison to xA?
Well I looked at 2023-24 #FPL season data and xFA is 3.6% off the FPL assist total, compared to 29.8% off for xA - that's an 8x improvement (!!)
🧵
Ok the results are in, how does xFA v1.0 perform in comparison to xA?
Well I looked at 2023-24 #FPL season data and xFA is 3.6% off the FPL assist total, compared to 29.8% off for xA - that's an 8x improvement (!!)
🧵
November 28, 2024 at 11:33 AM
--- Expected Fantasy Assists (xFA) ---
Ok the results are in, how does xFA v1.0 perform in comparison to xA?
Well I looked at 2023-24 #FPL season data and xFA is 3.6% off the FPL assist total, compared to 29.8% off for xA - that's an 8x improvement (!!)
🧵
Ok the results are in, how does xFA v1.0 perform in comparison to xA?
Well I looked at 2023-24 #FPL season data and xFA is 3.6% off the FPL assist total, compared to 29.8% off for xA - that's an 8x improvement (!!)
🧵
Bonus post splitting the original table by assister
November 27, 2024 at 1:41 PM
Bonus post splitting the original table by assister
-- More FPL Assist analysis --
Manual analysis done from last season - breaking down FPL-only assists.
Took the 5 players with the biggest A-xA last season (Watkins, Gordon, Johnson, Neto, Diaby)
Of their 68 assists, 18 were FPL-only, with the following breakdown
Manual analysis done from last season - breaking down FPL-only assists.
Took the 5 players with the biggest A-xA last season (Watkins, Gordon, Johnson, Neto, Diaby)
Of their 68 assists, 18 were FPL-only, with the following breakdown
November 27, 2024 at 1:41 PM
-- More FPL Assist analysis --
Manual analysis done from last season - breaking down FPL-only assists.
Took the 5 players with the biggest A-xA last season (Watkins, Gordon, Johnson, Neto, Diaby)
Of their 68 assists, 18 were FPL-only, with the following breakdown
Manual analysis done from last season - breaking down FPL-only assists.
Took the 5 players with the biggest A-xA last season (Watkins, Gordon, Johnson, Neto, Diaby)
Of their 68 assists, 18 were FPL-only, with the following breakdown