Spencer J Fox
@foxandtheflu.bsky.social
Assistant prof at UGA in Epi/Bios, disease modeler, and data scientist. Posts are my own opinions
This is actually fairly normal for measles, with countries often coming in and out of elimination status (figure from the paper showing those dynamics). It's important now to redouble vaccination efforts to get elimination status back on track!
November 6, 2025 at 3:32 PM
This is actually fairly normal for measles, with countries often coming in and out of elimination status (figure from the paper showing those dynamics). It's important now to redouble vaccination efforts to get elimination status back on track!
I announced it at SISMID so now to make it official. In August the Fox lab will be moving to NAU in Flagstaff AZ. I am so sad to leave all my wonderful UGA colleagues, but am excited to settle permanently in the Southwest near these mountains and the desert.
July 30, 2025 at 9:35 PM
I announced it at SISMID so now to make it official. In August the Fox lab will be moving to NAU in Flagstaff AZ. I am so sad to leave all my wonderful UGA colleagues, but am excited to settle permanently in the Southwest near these mountains and the desert.
Enjoyed wildflower season in the mountains this weekend and now I’m on my way to teach Simulation-based inference of epidemiological dynamics at SISMID! See y’all in Atlanta soon!
July 22, 2025 at 8:51 PM
Enjoyed wildflower season in the mountains this weekend and now I’m on my way to teach Simulation-based inference of epidemiological dynamics at SISMID! See y’all in Atlanta soon!
I’m particularly proud of panel b of the supplemental figure that was Amy’s idea of how to show progress of measles elimination is not as linear as we would like it to be.
June 2, 2025 at 7:54 PM
I’m particularly proud of panel b of the supplemental figure that was Amy’s idea of how to show progress of measles elimination is not as linear as we would like it to be.
Here are flu forecasts this week courtesy of Bren Case in the Fox lab. This year has been much larger than last year! We are seeing a recent uptick nationally which is not uncommon for this time of year, and overall the model thinks counts will start declining in the next couple of weeks
January 31, 2025 at 3:48 PM
Here are flu forecasts this week courtesy of Bren Case in the Fox lab. This year has been much larger than last year! We are seeing a recent uptick nationally which is not uncommon for this time of year, and overall the model thinks counts will start declining in the next couple of weeks
RSV forecasts are made this week. Our model is sticking with historic seasonality and thinks we are at or nearly at this season’s peak.
January 7, 2025 at 7:46 PM
RSV forecasts are made this week. Our model is sticking with historic seasonality and thinks we are at or nearly at this season’s peak.
Flu forecasts this week! Our model thinks the peak is about 2 weeks out or so, but very uncertain. Right now it thinks that this season is most likely to be smaller than last year, largely because of the comparatively slow start most states have had. Hope it’s right! #episky #medsky
December 19, 2024 at 10:05 PM
RSV forecasts for this week are live! Lots of declines popping up across the country. Very uncertain time because things could start ticking back up, but right now the national peak is about 1/3 of last year. Wonderfully small RSV year if it holds 🤞
December 17, 2024 at 3:53 PM
RSV forecasts for this week are live! Lots of declines popping up across the country. Very uncertain time because things could start ticking back up, but right now the national peak is about 1/3 of last year. Wonderfully small RSV year if it holds 🤞
Influenza forecasts this week are up! Our best model is thinking the peak will come in about 3 weeks or so at a level much lower than last year. Lots of uncertainty with the forecast, but this is driven by the low hospital admissions right now compared to previous years
December 11, 2024 at 11:03 PM
Influenza forecasts this week are up! Our best model is thinking the peak will come in about 3 weeks or so at a level much lower than last year. Lots of uncertainty with the forecast, but this is driven by the low hospital admissions right now compared to previous years
Our RSV forecasts this week are hopeful about a coming peak (though still very uncertain). If things continue this way, the season is likely to peak at roughly half the level of last year!
December 11, 2024 at 5:58 PM
Our RSV forecasts this week are hopeful about a coming peak (though still very uncertain). If things continue this way, the season is likely to peak at roughly half the level of last year!
Presenting our work forecasting influenza, COVID-19, and RSV with the same flexible forecast model tomorrow on the internal CSTE all sites call. Hope to present more widely soon!
December 9, 2024 at 9:02 PM
Presenting our work forecasting influenza, COVID-19, and RSV with the same flexible forecast model tomorrow on the internal CSTE all sites call. Hope to present more widely soon!
For example forecasts in GA (go dawgs), say 24F (XEC) should takeover soon with 24H (LF.7) coming in behind it. The 3 models have pretty different forecasts though so we’ll see what actually happens…
December 5, 2024 at 9:20 PM
For example forecasts in GA (go dawgs), say 24F (XEC) should takeover soon with 24H (LF.7) coming in behind it. The 3 models have pretty different forecasts though so we’ll see what actually happens…
Spent last week paddling through the Okefenokee swamp. It’s all I can think about now! The isolation, the carnivorous plants, the gators, and the cypress 💯. We have to protect it
December 5, 2024 at 3:53 PM
Spent last week paddling through the Okefenokee swamp. It’s all I can think about now! The isolation, the carnivorous plants, the gators, and the cypress 💯. We have to protect it
Influenza forecasts his week. Everything is trending up and to the right! In the tech world it would be a unicorn in no time. We’re still lagging behind last year’s timeline, so might be looking at a later season (similar to RSV)
December 4, 2024 at 9:44 PM
Influenza forecasts his week. Everything is trending up and to the right! In the tech world it would be a unicorn in no time. We’re still lagging behind last year’s timeline, so might be looking at a later season (similar to RSV)
RSV forecasts from yesterday!Things are still going to get worse before they get better. This season is delayed from last year, so either we will see a smaller epidemic or a later epidemic peak. FWIW our models are leaning towards the former with a lot of uncertainty though.
December 4, 2024 at 9:42 PM
RSV forecasts from yesterday!Things are still going to get worse before they get better. This season is delayed from last year, so either we will see a smaller epidemic or a later epidemic peak. FWIW our models are leaning towards the former with a lot of uncertainty though.
This is an amazing figure showing how this approach can help us anticipate epidemic increases (you can see that the algorithm says things are increasing a few weeks before they do).
December 2, 2024 at 10:39 PM
This is an amazing figure showing how this approach can help us anticipate epidemic increases (you can see that the algorithm says things are increasing a few weeks before they do).
Slow start to this years RSV season. Red dots show last years hospital admits and black points are this years. Our models think things are going to increase mainly because they tend to increase this time of year, the recent data are pretty muted so far.
November 11, 2024 at 6:55 PM
Slow start to this years RSV season. Red dots show last years hospital admits and black points are this years. Our models think things are going to increase mainly because they tend to increase this time of year, the recent data are pretty muted so far.
Vote vote vote! Then spend time outside to unwind
November 5, 2024 at 1:48 PM
Vote vote vote! Then spend time outside to unwind
Best neighborhood Halloween display I’ve seen this year so far! Loving the Halloween vibes in Boulevard
October 30, 2024 at 5:27 PM
Best neighborhood Halloween display I’ve seen this year so far! Loving the Halloween vibes in Boulevard
Make a plan to go vote! It was super easy and quick to vote early at the Lyndon House Arts Center in Athens!
October 30, 2024 at 5:24 PM
Make a plan to go vote! It was super easy and quick to vote early at the Lyndon House Arts Center in Athens!
I have been neglect because I just moved, but Fox lab postdoc Dr. Bren Case presented at OPTIONSXII on our groups work to forecast respiratory virus dynamics in Paraguay this past year!
October 4, 2024 at 1:29 PM
I have been neglect because I just moved, but Fox lab postdoc Dr. Bren Case presented at OPTIONSXII on our groups work to forecast respiratory virus dynamics in Paraguay this past year!
Here’s a photo from our recent trip to Paraguay with 3/6s the group!
August 16, 2024 at 4:44 PM
Here’s a photo from our recent trip to Paraguay with 3/6s the group!
The UNC Well was fun to see at night (basically the only photo I got the whole trip). So much green space on campus glad I got a few minutes to walk around
April 19, 2024 at 3:53 PM
The UNC Well was fun to see at night (basically the only photo I got the whole trip). So much green space on campus glad I got a few minutes to walk around
Enjoying a coffee, the tower, and the turtles on UT’s campus this rainy day. Good to be back!
February 10, 2024 at 9:42 PM
Enjoying a coffee, the tower, and the turtles on UT’s campus this rainy day. Good to be back!