Francisco J. Monaldi
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fmonaldi.bsky.social
Francisco J. Monaldi
@fmonaldi.bsky.social
Director, Latin American Energy Program
Wallace S. Wilson Fellow in Latin American Energy
Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy
https://www.bakerinstitute.org/expert/francisco-j-monaldi
So, for all practical purposes, Venezuela has infinite oil, although costlier and less valuable that the ones of its peers in the Middle East. At current oil prices Venezuela could produce 5-7 times as much oil as it produces. The problem is not below ground; it is above it and it is political...
November 5, 2025 at 3:10 PM
Does it matter? Not that much. Venezuela still has the largest reserves outside of the Middle East (with perhaps the exception of Canada) and most likely will never run out of oil.
November 5, 2025 at 3:10 PM
So, a reasonable and conservative estimate of RESERVES would be closer to 100-110 billion barrels (around 80% extra-heavy). In fact, the leading oil consultancies use a much lower estimate for Venezuela's reserves.
November 5, 2025 at 3:10 PM
But Venezuela has not audited the reserves, only the resources in place. And in reality, it only recovers about 7-8% of the extra-heavy oil on the ground, instead of the 20% recovery figure it used to claim the official figure of reserves.
November 5, 2025 at 3:10 PM
The US Geological Survey estimates about 500 billion barrels of technically recoverable barrels in the Orinoco Belt (close to half of the oil resources below the ground). That number is huge, equivalent to about a third of global proven reserves.
November 5, 2025 at 3:10 PM