(4/4) Our model is open source and available for other researchers to explore scenarios: https://github.com/allfed/pytradeshifts

This is urgent work. The probability of at least one major food system shock this century is high and rising. We need better preparation strategies.

#OpenScience […]

(3/4) Even "smaller" nuclear wars have massive trade impacts. At just 5 Tg of soot, some countries lose 50% of #maize imports. At 16 Tg, many countries face major import losses across all major crops.

This matters for nuclear policy: limiting escalation is crucial even if conflict begins. The […]

(2/4) Even when two catastrophes cause similar global yield losses, their effects on trade are dramatically different.

Abrupt sunlight reduction (#nuclearwar, #supervolcano) concentrates damage in high-latitude major exporters → severe trade disruption […]

[Original post on fediscience.org]