The key data is that against this chain of infection in cows, not only are no strong measures being taken, but its continuation is mediated by human activity. And it's not at all clear what will cause a change in this policy.

This doesn't mean the danger isn't significant. In assessing the danger, we must consider not just the probability but also the risk. The risk here is enormous - so even when multiplied by small probabilities, from my POV it should justifies raising warning flags now.

I completely agree that everything we're seeing doesn't mean the chance of transmission and pandemic is imminent. Statistically, it would require many more "dice rolls" of the virus. We're might even see a step of terminal branches in humans, without it leading to an epidemic.