Finn_FPL
@finnfpl.bsky.social
@OfficialFPL enthusiast. 🇳🇴 FPL OR 18/19: 62k. 19/20: 20k. 20/21: 14k. 21/22: 32k. 22/23: 30k. 23/24: 109k. 24/25: 1592.
Reposted by Finn_FPL
The numbers suggest that Arsenal have been slightly worse without Gabriel over the past few seasons
But... it's a small sample size, and Mosquera & Hincapié are capable backups. So far, markets have made only very minor adjustments to Arsenal's CS odds for the Tottenham game 👇
But... it's a small sample size, and Mosquera & Hincapié are capable backups. So far, markets have made only very minor adjustments to Arsenal's CS odds for the Tottenham game 👇
November 19, 2025 at 10:21 PM
The numbers suggest that Arsenal have been slightly worse without Gabriel over the past few seasons
But... it's a small sample size, and Mosquera & Hincapié are capable backups. So far, markets have made only very minor adjustments to Arsenal's CS odds for the Tottenham game 👇
But... it's a small sample size, and Mosquera & Hincapié are capable backups. So far, markets have made only very minor adjustments to Arsenal's CS odds for the Tottenham game 👇
Reposted by Finn_FPL
#FPL
Worst xG teams season so far
xG diff (actual Goal Diff)
🍷 BUR -6.1 (-3)
🟣 AVL -4.3 (-4)
🐺 WOL -3.5 (-9)
⚒ WHU -3.5 (-8)
🌳 NFO -3.4 (-4)
⚪ LEE -2.4 (-3)
⬜ FUL -1.3 (+1)
🐈⬛ SUN -1.0 (+2)
🐝 BRE -0.7 (-4)
🐓 TOT +0.1 (+7)
Worst xG teams season so far
xG diff (actual Goal Diff)
🍷 BUR -6.1 (-3)
🟣 AVL -4.3 (-4)
🐺 WOL -3.5 (-9)
⚒ WHU -3.5 (-8)
🌳 NFO -3.4 (-4)
⚪ LEE -2.4 (-3)
⬜ FUL -1.3 (+1)
🐈⬛ SUN -1.0 (+2)
🐝 BRE -0.7 (-4)
🐓 TOT +0.1 (+7)
September 22, 2025 at 8:37 PM
#FPL
Worst xG teams season so far
xG diff (actual Goal Diff)
🍷 BUR -6.1 (-3)
🟣 AVL -4.3 (-4)
🐺 WOL -3.5 (-9)
⚒ WHU -3.5 (-8)
🌳 NFO -3.4 (-4)
⚪ LEE -2.4 (-3)
⬜ FUL -1.3 (+1)
🐈⬛ SUN -1.0 (+2)
🐝 BRE -0.7 (-4)
🐓 TOT +0.1 (+7)
Worst xG teams season so far
xG diff (actual Goal Diff)
🍷 BUR -6.1 (-3)
🟣 AVL -4.3 (-4)
🐺 WOL -3.5 (-9)
⚒ WHU -3.5 (-8)
🌳 NFO -3.4 (-4)
⚪ LEE -2.4 (-3)
⬜ FUL -1.3 (+1)
🐈⬛ SUN -1.0 (+2)
🐝 BRE -0.7 (-4)
🐓 TOT +0.1 (+7)
Reposted by Finn_FPL
#FPL
Best xG teams season so far
xG diff (actual Goal Diff)
⭕ ARS +4.3 (+8)
🦅 CRY +3.7 (+4)
🧿 CHE +3.6 (+5)
🍒 BOU +3.1 (+1)
👹 MUN +2.9 (-2)
🔴 LIV +2.8 (+6)
🔵 MCI +2.4 (+4)
⚫ NEW +2.1 (0)
🕊 BHA +0.9 (-2)
🍬 EVE +0.3 (+1)
Best xG teams season so far
xG diff (actual Goal Diff)
⭕ ARS +4.3 (+8)
🦅 CRY +3.7 (+4)
🧿 CHE +3.6 (+5)
🍒 BOU +3.1 (+1)
👹 MUN +2.9 (-2)
🔴 LIV +2.8 (+6)
🔵 MCI +2.4 (+4)
⚫ NEW +2.1 (0)
🕊 BHA +0.9 (-2)
🍬 EVE +0.3 (+1)
September 22, 2025 at 8:37 PM
#FPL
Best xG teams season so far
xG diff (actual Goal Diff)
⭕ ARS +4.3 (+8)
🦅 CRY +3.7 (+4)
🧿 CHE +3.6 (+5)
🍒 BOU +3.1 (+1)
👹 MUN +2.9 (-2)
🔴 LIV +2.8 (+6)
🔵 MCI +2.4 (+4)
⚫ NEW +2.1 (0)
🕊 BHA +0.9 (-2)
🍬 EVE +0.3 (+1)
Best xG teams season so far
xG diff (actual Goal Diff)
⭕ ARS +4.3 (+8)
🦅 CRY +3.7 (+4)
🧿 CHE +3.6 (+5)
🍒 BOU +3.1 (+1)
👹 MUN +2.9 (-2)
🔴 LIV +2.8 (+6)
🔵 MCI +2.4 (+4)
⚫ NEW +2.1 (0)
🕊 BHA +0.9 (-2)
🍬 EVE +0.3 (+1)
Reposted by Finn_FPL
Players to consider on FH34
Fulham: Robinson, Sessegnon
Newcastle: Isak, Barnes, Murphy, Schar, Trippier
Wolves: Cunha, Strand Larsen, RAN
Chelsea: Palmer, Cucurella
Bournemouth: Kluivert, Evanilson, Kerkez
Liverpool: Salah
Brentford: Mbeumo
Forest: Sels, Wood, Milenkovic
Fulham: Robinson, Sessegnon
Newcastle: Isak, Barnes, Murphy, Schar, Trippier
Wolves: Cunha, Strand Larsen, RAN
Chelsea: Palmer, Cucurella
Bournemouth: Kluivert, Evanilson, Kerkez
Liverpool: Salah
Brentford: Mbeumo
Forest: Sels, Wood, Milenkovic
April 19, 2025 at 11:14 PM
Players to consider on FH34
Fulham: Robinson, Sessegnon
Newcastle: Isak, Barnes, Murphy, Schar, Trippier
Wolves: Cunha, Strand Larsen, RAN
Chelsea: Palmer, Cucurella
Bournemouth: Kluivert, Evanilson, Kerkez
Liverpool: Salah
Brentford: Mbeumo
Forest: Sels, Wood, Milenkovic
Fulham: Robinson, Sessegnon
Newcastle: Isak, Barnes, Murphy, Schar, Trippier
Wolves: Cunha, Strand Larsen, RAN
Chelsea: Palmer, Cucurella
Bournemouth: Kluivert, Evanilson, Kerkez
Liverpool: Salah
Brentford: Mbeumo
Forest: Sels, Wood, Milenkovic
Reposted by Finn_FPL
Reposted by Finn_FPL
The ©️A P T A I N and
P R E M I U M matrix 🖊️
🗓️ #GW27 - to - GW38
🟪 highlighting key CAPTAIN and PREMIUM player options and their HOME and AWAY matches versus last seasons bottom 12/promoted sides 👀
#CaptaincyMatrix #FPL
💚💛❤️
P R E M I U M matrix 🖊️
🗓️ #GW27 - to - GW38
🟪 highlighting key CAPTAIN and PREMIUM player options and their HOME and AWAY matches versus last seasons bottom 12/promoted sides 👀
#CaptaincyMatrix #FPL
💚💛❤️
February 25, 2025 at 7:32 AM
The ©️A P T A I N and
P R E M I U M matrix 🖊️
🗓️ #GW27 - to - GW38
🟪 highlighting key CAPTAIN and PREMIUM player options and their HOME and AWAY matches versus last seasons bottom 12/promoted sides 👀
#CaptaincyMatrix #FPL
💚💛❤️
P R E M I U M matrix 🖊️
🗓️ #GW27 - to - GW38
🟪 highlighting key CAPTAIN and PREMIUM player options and their HOME and AWAY matches versus last seasons bottom 12/promoted sides 👀
#CaptaincyMatrix #FPL
💚💛❤️
Reposted by Finn_FPL
We officially reached full home/away equilibrium in the Premier League after this weekend's games:
🔹 Home teams - 261 games, 396 goals (1.52 goals per game)
🔹Away teams - 261 games, 396 goals (1.52 goals per game)
🔹 Home teams - 261 games, 396 goals (1.52 goals per game)
🔹Away teams - 261 games, 396 goals (1.52 goals per game)
💹 So far this season, PL home advantage is at a 20-year low (excl. 20/21)
Goals (xG) per game:
🔹Home – 1.54 (1.50)
🔹Away – 1.49 (1.40)
Markets still pricing home teams +0.30 goals per game, in line with historical trends - suggests they're sceptical this dip will continue! 👇
Goals (xG) per game:
🔹Home – 1.54 (1.50)
🔹Away – 1.49 (1.40)
Markets still pricing home teams +0.30 goals per game, in line with historical trends - suggests they're sceptical this dip will continue! 👇
February 24, 2025 at 10:40 PM
We officially reached full home/away equilibrium in the Premier League after this weekend's games:
🔹 Home teams - 261 games, 396 goals (1.52 goals per game)
🔹Away teams - 261 games, 396 goals (1.52 goals per game)
🔹 Home teams - 261 games, 396 goals (1.52 goals per game)
🔹Away teams - 261 games, 396 goals (1.52 goals per game)
Reposted by Finn_FPL
📊 GW26: Stay at the Slot machine or gamble elsewhere?
250k simulations show the distribution of expected gain by making the switch from Slot to this week's top managers available for each risk profile.
Based on team ratings by @elevenify.com
250k simulations show the distribution of expected gain by making the switch from Slot to this week's top managers available for each risk profile.
Based on team ratings by @elevenify.com
February 20, 2025 at 6:10 PM
📊 GW26: Stay at the Slot machine or gamble elsewhere?
250k simulations show the distribution of expected gain by making the switch from Slot to this week's top managers available for each risk profile.
Based on team ratings by @elevenify.com
250k simulations show the distribution of expected gain by making the switch from Slot to this week's top managers available for each risk profile.
Based on team ratings by @elevenify.com
Reposted by Finn_FPL
GW26 clean sheet % 🥅🧤
ARS: 55%
BOU: 36%
FUL: 36%
BHA: 36%
EVE: 33%
NEW: 33%
MUN: 31%
BRE: 28%
TOT: 27%
CPL: 24%
CHE: 23%
AVL: 21%
LIV: 20%
MCI: 18%
LEI: 18%
IPS: 18%
NFO: 18%
WOL: 14%
SOU: 14%
WHU: 11%
Source: Oddschecker
ARS: 55%
BOU: 36%
FUL: 36%
BHA: 36%
EVE: 33%
NEW: 33%
MUN: 31%
BRE: 28%
TOT: 27%
CPL: 24%
CHE: 23%
AVL: 21%
LIV: 20%
MCI: 18%
LEI: 18%
IPS: 18%
NFO: 18%
WOL: 14%
SOU: 14%
WHU: 11%
Source: Oddschecker
February 18, 2025 at 10:10 PM
GW26 clean sheet % 🥅🧤
ARS: 55%
BOU: 36%
FUL: 36%
BHA: 36%
EVE: 33%
NEW: 33%
MUN: 31%
BRE: 28%
TOT: 27%
CPL: 24%
CHE: 23%
AVL: 21%
LIV: 20%
MCI: 18%
LEI: 18%
IPS: 18%
NFO: 18%
WOL: 14%
SOU: 14%
WHU: 11%
Source: Oddschecker
ARS: 55%
BOU: 36%
FUL: 36%
BHA: 36%
EVE: 33%
NEW: 33%
MUN: 31%
BRE: 28%
TOT: 27%
CPL: 24%
CHE: 23%
AVL: 21%
LIV: 20%
MCI: 18%
LEI: 18%
IPS: 18%
NFO: 18%
WOL: 14%
SOU: 14%
WHU: 11%
Source: Oddschecker
Reposted by Finn_FPL
Very early look at #FPL AM pts projections, via betting markets
Will be fluctuations before final Friday updates, but essentially looks like a test of risk appetite: safe option (Arteta) or roll the 🎲 on table bonus managers with a higher ceiling / higher bust potential!
Will be fluctuations before final Friday updates, but essentially looks like a test of risk appetite: safe option (Arteta) or roll the 🎲 on table bonus managers with a higher ceiling / higher bust potential!
February 17, 2025 at 5:23 PM
Very early look at #FPL AM pts projections, via betting markets
Will be fluctuations before final Friday updates, but essentially looks like a test of risk appetite: safe option (Arteta) or roll the 🎲 on table bonus managers with a higher ceiling / higher bust potential!
Will be fluctuations before final Friday updates, but essentially looks like a test of risk appetite: safe option (Arteta) or roll the 🎲 on table bonus managers with a higher ceiling / higher bust potential!
Reposted by Finn_FPL
A full probability matrix for every outcome for Slot and Moyes' points after the Merseyside Derby 🔵🔴
February 4, 2025 at 1:53 PM
A full probability matrix for every outcome for Slot and Moyes' points after the Merseyside Derby 🔵🔴
Reposted by Finn_FPL
Nottingham Forest are only the second side in Premier League history to lose a game by 5+ goals and then follow it up by immediately winning their next game in the competition by 5+ goals.
Who was the first?
Who was the first?
February 1, 2025 at 2:47 PM
Nottingham Forest are only the second side in Premier League history to lose a game by 5+ goals and then follow it up by immediately winning their next game in the competition by 5+ goals.
Who was the first?
Who was the first?
Reposted by Finn_FPL
Salah TC — 16 points
Slot AM — 10 points
Moyes AM — 12 points
Half time of DGW24
Slot AM — 10 points
Moyes AM — 12 points
Half time of DGW24
February 1, 2025 at 4:59 PM
Salah TC — 16 points
Slot AM — 10 points
Moyes AM — 12 points
Half time of DGW24
Slot AM — 10 points
Moyes AM — 12 points
Half time of DGW24
Reposted by Finn_FPL
Salah needs 66 points in his remaining 15 games (4.4 pts per match) to break the all-time FPL points record. He's averaging 10.2 pts per match this season. 🤯
February 1, 2025 at 5:41 PM
Salah needs 66 points in his remaining 15 games (4.4 pts per match) to break the all-time FPL points record. He's averaging 10.2 pts per match this season. 🤯
Reposted by Finn_FPL
Wolves confirm Matheus Cunha has signed a new contract this evening keeping him at the club until 2029. New deal has a release clause.🐺
🗣️ Chair Jeff Shi: “It’s always important to us that we reward our strongest and most impactful players, and Matheus deserves this new deal.”
🗣️ Chair Jeff Shi: “It’s always important to us that we reward our strongest and most impactful players, and Matheus deserves this new deal.”
February 1, 2025 at 10:41 PM
Wolves confirm Matheus Cunha has signed a new contract this evening keeping him at the club until 2029. New deal has a release clause.🐺
🗣️ Chair Jeff Shi: “It’s always important to us that we reward our strongest and most impactful players, and Matheus deserves this new deal.”
🗣️ Chair Jeff Shi: “It’s always important to us that we reward our strongest and most impactful players, and Matheus deserves this new deal.”
Reposted by Finn_FPL
GW 24 - 26 #FPL UPDATED Assistant Manager Chip Predicted Points 📊
Final updated AM predicted points. This considers all available information (as of post-announcements 31st Jan) and is the best current estimate of predicted points.
Big thanks to @guymc.com for running simulations.
Final updated AM predicted points. This considers all available information (as of post-announcements 31st Jan) and is the best current estimate of predicted points.
Big thanks to @guymc.com for running simulations.
January 31, 2025 at 5:03 PM
GW 24 - 26 #FPL UPDATED Assistant Manager Chip Predicted Points 📊
Final updated AM predicted points. This considers all available information (as of post-announcements 31st Jan) and is the best current estimate of predicted points.
Big thanks to @guymc.com for running simulations.
Final updated AM predicted points. This considers all available information (as of post-announcements 31st Jan) and is the best current estimate of predicted points.
Big thanks to @guymc.com for running simulations.
Reposted by Finn_FPL
Bournemouth continue to cook and there's a new starter (🍡!) who warrants evaluating! So I figured I'd make a new (far too long) 🧵. Again, I'm not a Cherries fan (hope they have an off day on Sat), just a regular watcher and admirer of Iraola-ball and their players. So take this for what you will
Despite this I think both of these guys are very viable FPL picks - any piece of this lovely Bournemouth attack seems like good value given their pricing. But the money saved going for Kluivert over Semenyo comes with more risk, as he is much more likely to get dropped (rotation possible for both)
January 30, 2025 at 3:49 PM
Bournemouth continue to cook and there's a new starter (🍡!) who warrants evaluating! So I figured I'd make a new (far too long) 🧵. Again, I'm not a Cherries fan (hope they have an off day on Sat), just a regular watcher and admirer of Iraola-ball and their players. So take this for what you will
Reposted by Finn_FPL
UPDATE! Now with DGW25 and BGW37?!
An even more proactive announcement on DGW25 than we anticipated suggests the GW34 blanks might be more likely to come forward to GW33 midweek, and the same logic with GW37 FA cup final clashes coming forward to GW36 midweek instead of pushed back to GW37 midweek.
An even more proactive announcement on DGW25 than we anticipated suggests the GW34 blanks might be more likely to come forward to GW33 midweek, and the same logic with GW37 FA cup final clashes coming forward to GW36 midweek instead of pushed back to GW37 midweek.
January 31, 2025 at 6:01 PM
UPDATE! Now with DGW25 and BGW37?!
An even more proactive announcement on DGW25 than we anticipated suggests the GW34 blanks might be more likely to come forward to GW33 midweek, and the same logic with GW37 FA cup final clashes coming forward to GW36 midweek instead of pushed back to GW37 midweek.
An even more proactive announcement on DGW25 than we anticipated suggests the GW34 blanks might be more likely to come forward to GW33 midweek, and the same logic with GW37 FA cup final clashes coming forward to GW36 midweek instead of pushed back to GW37 midweek.
Reposted by Finn_FPL
F I X T U R E S 🗓️
#GW23 - to - GW38
#DGW25 for #FULTOT is likely if Spurs finish Top 8 in Europa League (currently 6th) AND Spurs bt Liverpool to reach Carabao Final (currently 1-0 with second leg at Anfield). Likely earliest confirmation will come after DGW24 deadline.
#theFPLmatrix
💚💛❤️
#GW23 - to - GW38
#DGW25 for #FULTOT is likely if Spurs finish Top 8 in Europa League (currently 6th) AND Spurs bt Liverpool to reach Carabao Final (currently 1-0 with second leg at Anfield). Likely earliest confirmation will come after DGW24 deadline.
#theFPLmatrix
💚💛❤️
January 25, 2025 at 11:54 AM
F I X T U R E S 🗓️
#GW23 - to - GW38
#DGW25 for #FULTOT is likely if Spurs finish Top 8 in Europa League (currently 6th) AND Spurs bt Liverpool to reach Carabao Final (currently 1-0 with second leg at Anfield). Likely earliest confirmation will come after DGW24 deadline.
#theFPLmatrix
💚💛❤️
#GW23 - to - GW38
#DGW25 for #FULTOT is likely if Spurs finish Top 8 in Europa League (currently 6th) AND Spurs bt Liverpool to reach Carabao Final (currently 1-0 with second leg at Anfield). Likely earliest confirmation will come after DGW24 deadline.
#theFPLmatrix
💚💛❤️
Reposted by Finn_FPL
FPL Double and Blank Gameweeks
Viz dump + logic explained 🧵
Viz dump + logic explained 🧵
January 24, 2025 at 2:28 PM
FPL Double and Blank Gameweeks
Viz dump + logic explained 🧵
Viz dump + logic explained 🧵