Felipe Camargo
@fcamargo.bsky.social
Int'l economics & applied mathematics
New blog post. What do oil prices do to the US economy?
While answering this very practical and interesting question, I also aim to make a more general point: models are effective means of illustrating and summarising a technical story
Hope you enjoy it
fcamargo.substack.com/p/what-do-oi...
While answering this very practical and interesting question, I also aim to make a more general point: models are effective means of illustrating and summarising a technical story
Hope you enjoy it
fcamargo.substack.com/p/what-do-oi...
What do oil prices do to the US economy?
Economic models as effective means of storytelling
fcamargo.substack.com
September 21, 2024 at 1:22 PM
New blog post. What do oil prices do to the US economy?
While answering this very practical and interesting question, I also aim to make a more general point: models are effective means of illustrating and summarising a technical story
Hope you enjoy it
fcamargo.substack.com/p/what-do-oi...
While answering this very practical and interesting question, I also aim to make a more general point: models are effective means of illustrating and summarising a technical story
Hope you enjoy it
fcamargo.substack.com/p/what-do-oi...
The carry-over into Q3 2024 for Brazilian activity is strong, but momentum already fades at the margin. Retail sales and labour market indicators already point to weaker sequential growth.
The economy will still grow by a solid 3% this year, though.
The economy will still grow by a solid 3% this year, though.
September 13, 2024 at 2:38 PM
The carry-over into Q3 2024 for Brazilian activity is strong, but momentum already fades at the margin. Retail sales and labour market indicators already point to weaker sequential growth.
The economy will still grow by a solid 3% this year, though.
The economy will still grow by a solid 3% this year, though.
Advanced economies are struggling a little more with inflation at the "last mile".
One could have argued that more productivity is indicative of prices being more flexible. The post-pandemic world data point otherwise
One could have argued that more productivity is indicative of prices being more flexible. The post-pandemic world data point otherwise
September 12, 2024 at 9:13 AM
Advanced economies are struggling a little more with inflation at the "last mile".
One could have argued that more productivity is indicative of prices being more flexible. The post-pandemic world data point otherwise
One could have argued that more productivity is indicative of prices being more flexible. The post-pandemic world data point otherwise
The Brazilian consumer outlook is becoming increasingly more fragile. Real wages are not on par with consumption growth, meaning much of the current levels of consumption can only be sustained through lower savings.
Household spending growth is bound to weaken
Household spending growth is bound to weaken
September 11, 2024 at 2:53 PM
The Brazilian consumer outlook is becoming increasingly more fragile. Real wages are not on par with consumption growth, meaning much of the current levels of consumption can only be sustained through lower savings.
Household spending growth is bound to weaken
Household spending growth is bound to weaken
Beat you Bot: Building your moat against AI!
YouTube video by Aswath Damodaran
www.youtube.com
September 1, 2024 at 8:25 PM
New blog post. This time I am breaking US household consumption apart to show its links to income and employment data. Useful for storytelling purposes and not something people usually find in textbook macro.
I hope some of you can enjoy.
fcamargo.substack.com/p/breaking-d...
I hope some of you can enjoy.
fcamargo.substack.com/p/breaking-d...
Breaking down US household consumption
Linking labour market dynamics to domestic demand
fcamargo.substack.com
August 31, 2024 at 7:12 AM
New blog post. This time I am breaking US household consumption apart to show its links to income and employment data. Useful for storytelling purposes and not something people usually find in textbook macro.
I hope some of you can enjoy.
fcamargo.substack.com/p/breaking-d...
I hope some of you can enjoy.
fcamargo.substack.com/p/breaking-d...
Southern floods to pressure CPI in 🇧🇷
We revised our end-2024 inflation forecast up by 0.3ppts, to 4.0% y/y. Devastating floods in the Rio Grande do Sul state will impact food inflation in the coming months. The situation remains fluid and implies an upward risk to our baseline.
We revised our end-2024 inflation forecast up by 0.3ppts, to 4.0% y/y. Devastating floods in the Rio Grande do Sul state will impact food inflation in the coming months. The situation remains fluid and implies an upward risk to our baseline.
May 10, 2024 at 3:53 PM
Southern floods to pressure CPI in 🇧🇷
We revised our end-2024 inflation forecast up by 0.3ppts, to 4.0% y/y. Devastating floods in the Rio Grande do Sul state will impact food inflation in the coming months. The situation remains fluid and implies an upward risk to our baseline.
We revised our end-2024 inflation forecast up by 0.3ppts, to 4.0% y/y. Devastating floods in the Rio Grande do Sul state will impact food inflation in the coming months. The situation remains fluid and implies an upward risk to our baseline.
New blog post. Finance content this time around.
Tried my best to bring some novelty to the rent/buy dilemma.
As usual, free spreadsheet attached so you can do your own calculations.
fcamargo.substack.com/p/the-case-f...
Tried my best to bring some novelty to the rent/buy dilemma.
As usual, free spreadsheet attached so you can do your own calculations.
fcamargo.substack.com/p/the-case-f...
The case for renting
An algebraic take on whether to rent or buy a home
fcamargo.substack.com
May 4, 2024 at 4:54 PM
New blog post. Finance content this time around.
Tried my best to bring some novelty to the rent/buy dilemma.
As usual, free spreadsheet attached so you can do your own calculations.
fcamargo.substack.com/p/the-case-f...
Tried my best to bring some novelty to the rent/buy dilemma.
As usual, free spreadsheet attached so you can do your own calculations.
fcamargo.substack.com/p/the-case-f...
New blog post. Back to finance content this time
This is my best take on old the rent/buy problem and I think I managed to bring some novelty to it.
As usual, there's a free spreadsheet attached so you can do your own calculations.
fcamargo.substack.com/p/the-case-for…
This is my best take on old the rent/buy problem and I think I managed to bring some novelty to it.
As usual, there's a free spreadsheet attached so you can do your own calculations.
fcamargo.substack.com/p/the-case-for…
https://fcamargo.substack.com/p/the-case-for…
April 21, 2024 at 9:52 PM
New blog post. Back to finance content this time
This is my best take on old the rent/buy problem and I think I managed to bring some novelty to it.
As usual, there's a free spreadsheet attached so you can do your own calculations.
fcamargo.substack.com/p/the-case-for…
This is my best take on old the rent/buy problem and I think I managed to bring some novelty to it.
As usual, there's a free spreadsheet attached so you can do your own calculations.
fcamargo.substack.com/p/the-case-for…
Dynamics in macroeconomics
Going beyond the limitations of comparative statics
fcamargo.substack.com
April 2, 2024 at 7:15 PM
A brief note on Brazil's economic conjuncture
Will the BCB stop the rate cutting cycle?
Long story short, that's up to inflation. Expectation surveys and us are unconvinced further target convergence can be attained once inflation hits 4%. That is so for three reasons.
1/n
Will the BCB stop the rate cutting cycle?
Long story short, that's up to inflation. Expectation surveys and us are unconvinced further target convergence can be attained once inflation hits 4%. That is so for three reasons.
1/n
October 31, 2023 at 1:44 PM
A brief note on Brazil's economic conjuncture
Will the BCB stop the rate cutting cycle?
Long story short, that's up to inflation. Expectation surveys and us are unconvinced further target convergence can be attained once inflation hits 4%. That is so for three reasons.
1/n
Will the BCB stop the rate cutting cycle?
Long story short, that's up to inflation. Expectation surveys and us are unconvinced further target convergence can be attained once inflation hits 4%. That is so for three reasons.
1/n
I think this might be a good starting point for me in this new network.
fcamargo.substack.com/p/on-purpose...
fcamargo.substack.com/p/on-purpose...
October 26, 2023 at 11:52 AM
I think this might be a good starting point for me in this new network.
fcamargo.substack.com/p/on-purpose...
fcamargo.substack.com/p/on-purpose...