Tom Norman
@farjeon.bsky.social
UK base, investing and index trading.
I think about this a lot. What do equity returns look like in an age of wealth redistribution or political and economic turmoil?
It looks like that's what we're heading for but what's the play? Unlikely to be bonds, commodities perhaps, emerging markets...?
It looks like that's what we're heading for but what's the play? Unlikely to be bonds, commodities perhaps, emerging markets...?
April 2, 2025 at 1:48 PM
I think about this a lot. What do equity returns look like in an age of wealth redistribution or political and economic turmoil?
It looks like that's what we're heading for but what's the play? Unlikely to be bonds, commodities perhaps, emerging markets...?
It looks like that's what we're heading for but what's the play? Unlikely to be bonds, commodities perhaps, emerging markets...?
China also doomed by not being a democracy. There's a surprisingly strong relationship between how long a country has been democratic and income per capita.
November 20, 2024 at 4:50 PM
China also doomed by not being a democracy. There's a surprisingly strong relationship between how long a country has been democratic and income per capita.
4 years ago I graphed the naked trader's results from his website and found them so improbable I haven't paid him any attention since.
November 18, 2024 at 4:15 PM
4 years ago I graphed the naked trader's results from his website and found them so improbable I haven't paid him any attention since.
This shows SPY (S&P 500 ETR) for the first 8 days after Trump's 2 election wins. Rebased to 1.
Given the tariff rhetoric and his staff picks this look wildly optimistic to me.
Given the tariff rhetoric and his staff picks this look wildly optimistic to me.
November 15, 2024 at 11:11 AM
This shows SPY (S&P 500 ETR) for the first 8 days after Trump's 2 election wins. Rebased to 1.
Given the tariff rhetoric and his staff picks this look wildly optimistic to me.
Given the tariff rhetoric and his staff picks this look wildly optimistic to me.
I do try to hate the French but then you find out that they've developed barbecues that roll on tram tracks for when they're striking.
source: ukfoundations.co
(well worth reading).
source: ukfoundations.co
(well worth reading).
September 20, 2024 at 4:39 PM
I do try to hate the French but then you find out that they've developed barbecues that roll on tram tracks for when they're striking.
source: ukfoundations.co
(well worth reading).
source: ukfoundations.co
(well worth reading).
I learnt a lot studying #RCP.L (black) and #CGT.L (red) shown here v #FCIT.L. Their outperformance in bear markets leads to very respectable long-term returns. Good diversifiers I've gone with: WisdomTree Gold etf, #BHMG.L, Winton Trend Fund, Inflation linked gilts and various special sits.
September 8, 2024 at 4:41 PM
End of August returns. Long-term portfolio (equities, bonds, trend-following, gold): +7.2% ytd. Index trades: +21.4% ytd.
A good year for trading so far but note the chart shows trades after they're closed. In reality open position drawdowns make it considerably more volatile.
A good year for trading so far but note the chart shows trades after they're closed. In reality open position drawdowns make it considerably more volatile.
September 3, 2024 at 2:49 PM
End of August returns. Long-term portfolio (equities, bonds, trend-following, gold): +7.2% ytd. Index trades: +21.4% ytd.
A good year for trading so far but note the chart shows trades after they're closed. In reality open position drawdowns make it considerably more volatile.
A good year for trading so far but note the chart shows trades after they're closed. In reality open position drawdowns make it considerably more volatile.