Fabio Angiolillo
@fabioangiolillo.bsky.social
Jemolo Research Fellow Nuffield College, Oxford & Postdoc V-Dem Institute, University of Gothenburg
Comparative politics, autocracies, political parties | China & East Asian politics
Co-founder @apsgworkshop.bsky.social
https://www.fangiolillo.com
Comparative politics, autocracies, political parties | China & East Asian politics
Co-founder @apsgworkshop.bsky.social
https://www.fangiolillo.com
🚨 Are you or do you know a student interested in authoritarianism? I am recruiting an intern to work on authoritarian parties with me starting January '26!
The position is in-person in Gothenburg, Sweden & the deadline to apply is 28 November 2025. Email your application to fabio.angiolillo@gu.se
The position is in-person in Gothenburg, Sweden & the deadline to apply is 28 November 2025. Email your application to fabio.angiolillo@gu.se
November 7, 2025 at 2:01 PM
🚨 Are you or do you know a student interested in authoritarianism? I am recruiting an intern to work on authoritarian parties with me starting January '26!
The position is in-person in Gothenburg, Sweden & the deadline to apply is 28 November 2025. Email your application to fabio.angiolillo@gu.se
The position is in-person in Gothenburg, Sweden & the deadline to apply is 28 November 2025. Email your application to fabio.angiolillo@gu.se
Yet, the CCP really wants/needs middle-class groups within its ranks for legitimacy purposes. This creates a dilemma where those who apply en masse are not those the party wants!
Different from before, during Xi's tenure the CCP has actively applying some force to get who they want.
Different from before, during Xi's tenure the CCP has actively applying some force to get who they want.
July 12, 2025 at 8:54 AM
Yet, the CCP really wants/needs middle-class groups within its ranks for legitimacy purposes. This creates a dilemma where those who apply en masse are not those the party wants!
Different from before, during Xi's tenure the CCP has actively applying some force to get who they want.
Different from before, during Xi's tenure the CCP has actively applying some force to get who they want.
Questi sviluppi attaccano sostanzialmente la democrazia? Si!
Questa è una mappa di come i livelli di democrazia elettorale sono calcolati da V-Dem. 36/38 indicatori non hanno (ancora) subito attacchi decisivi, ma il 20% dei componenti della libertà di espressione italiana sono fortemente attaccati.
Questa è una mappa di come i livelli di democrazia elettorale sono calcolati da V-Dem. 36/38 indicatori non hanno (ancora) subito attacchi decisivi, ma il 20% dei componenti della libertà di espressione italiana sono fortemente attaccati.
July 2, 2025 at 1:17 PM
Questi sviluppi attaccano sostanzialmente la democrazia? Si!
Questa è una mappa di come i livelli di democrazia elettorale sono calcolati da V-Dem. 36/38 indicatori non hanno (ancora) subito attacchi decisivi, ma il 20% dei componenti della libertà di espressione italiana sono fortemente attaccati.
Questa è una mappa di come i livelli di democrazia elettorale sono calcolati da V-Dem. 36/38 indicatori non hanno (ancora) subito attacchi decisivi, ma il 20% dei componenti della libertà di espressione italiana sono fortemente attaccati.
Il DL Sicurezza è passato il 9 giugno 2025 con gravi opportunità per i servizi segreti italiani di limitare la libertà accademica. La relazione della corte di cassazione sottolinea la gravità (figura + www.cortedicassazione.it/resources/cm...)
Qui il DL: www.giurisprudenzapenale.com/wp-content/u...
Qui il DL: www.giurisprudenzapenale.com/wp-content/u...
July 2, 2025 at 1:17 PM
Il DL Sicurezza è passato il 9 giugno 2025 con gravi opportunità per i servizi segreti italiani di limitare la libertà accademica. La relazione della corte di cassazione sottolinea la gravità (figura + www.cortedicassazione.it/resources/cm...)
Qui il DL: www.giurisprudenzapenale.com/wp-content/u...
Qui il DL: www.giurisprudenzapenale.com/wp-content/u...
Utilizzando i dati di V-Dem @vdeminstitute.bsky.social si può visualizzare come gli attacchi alla democrazia italiana sono su due fronti:
1. La diminuzione di libertà accademica e di espressione culturale (dal 2018)
2. La crescita della censura da parte del governo verso i media (dal 2022)
1. La diminuzione di libertà accademica e di espressione culturale (dal 2018)
2. La crescita della censura da parte del governo verso i media (dal 2022)
July 2, 2025 at 1:17 PM
Utilizzando i dati di V-Dem @vdeminstitute.bsky.social si può visualizzare come gli attacchi alla democrazia italiana sono su due fronti:
1. La diminuzione di libertà accademica e di espressione culturale (dal 2018)
2. La crescita della censura da parte del governo verso i media (dal 2022)
1. La diminuzione di libertà accademica e di espressione culturale (dal 2018)
2. La crescita della censura da parte del governo verso i media (dal 2022)
Nel report sulla democrazia globale di @vdeminstitute.bsky.social, nel 2024 l'Italia è a rischio autocratizzazione –ovvero un declino dei livelli di democrazia sostanziale rispetto agli anni precedenti.
Link: www.v-dem.net/documents/61...
Link: www.v-dem.net/documents/61...
July 2, 2025 at 1:17 PM
Nel report sulla democrazia globale di @vdeminstitute.bsky.social, nel 2024 l'Italia è a rischio autocratizzazione –ovvero un declino dei livelli di democrazia sostanziale rispetto agli anni precedenti.
Link: www.v-dem.net/documents/61...
Link: www.v-dem.net/documents/61...
In un articolo con Ordanoski, facciamo vedere come l'utilizzo di spyware sia un chiaro segnale di repressione da parte dei governi che cercano di attaccare i livelli di democrazia. Ed è molto comune in Europa come i casi di Grecia e Ungheria.
Qui l'articolo: www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
Qui l'articolo: www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
July 2, 2025 at 1:17 PM
In un articolo con Ordanoski, facciamo vedere come l'utilizzo di spyware sia un chiaro segnale di repressione da parte dei governi che cercano di attaccare i livelli di democrazia. Ed è molto comune in Europa come i casi di Grecia e Ungheria.
Qui l'articolo: www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
Qui l'articolo: www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
Nel report del 2024, Reporters Without Borders sottolinea come l'Italia sia l'unico paese dell'Europa occidentale ad avere un livello di libertà di stampa "problematico"
public.flourish.studio/visualisatio...
public.flourish.studio/visualisatio...
July 2, 2025 at 1:17 PM
Nel report del 2024, Reporters Without Borders sottolinea come l'Italia sia l'unico paese dell'Europa occidentale ad avere un livello di libertà di stampa "problematico"
public.flourish.studio/visualisatio...
public.flourish.studio/visualisatio...
𝐌𝐚𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐚𝐤𝐞𝐚𝐰𝐚𝐲:
Autocratizers face a dilemma on the 𝒕𝒊𝒎𝒊𝒏𝒈 in which to change repression from manipulative to openly coercive aimed at stabilizing the regime. This is a fragile moment that can transform autocratization into a stable autocracy. If autocratizers succeed, stable autocracy is likely.
Autocratizers face a dilemma on the 𝒕𝒊𝒎𝒊𝒏𝒈 in which to change repression from manipulative to openly coercive aimed at stabilizing the regime. This is a fragile moment that can transform autocratization into a stable autocracy. If autocratizers succeed, stable autocracy is likely.
June 4, 2025 at 6:57 AM
𝐌𝐚𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐚𝐤𝐞𝐚𝐰𝐚𝐲:
Autocratizers face a dilemma on the 𝒕𝒊𝒎𝒊𝒏𝒈 in which to change repression from manipulative to openly coercive aimed at stabilizing the regime. This is a fragile moment that can transform autocratization into a stable autocracy. If autocratizers succeed, stable autocracy is likely.
Autocratizers face a dilemma on the 𝒕𝒊𝒎𝒊𝒏𝒈 in which to change repression from manipulative to openly coercive aimed at stabilizing the regime. This is a fragile moment that can transform autocratization into a stable autocracy. If autocratizers succeed, stable autocracy is likely.
Here is Gruevski's map
June 4, 2025 at 6:57 AM
Here is Gruevski's map
Here is Orbán's map
June 4, 2025 at 6:57 AM
Here is Orbán's map
The Italian anti-democratic PM Meloni went openly against the antifascist Ventotene manifesto tinyurl.com/mr3mnzfr
This figure below is an empirical rough cut with a lot of tests to be done to be fine-tuned, but Italy made it to become a country in danger of potential autocratization this year…
This figure below is an empirical rough cut with a lot of tests to be done to be fine-tuned, but Italy made it to become a country in danger of potential autocratization this year…
March 20, 2025 at 12:30 PM
The Italian anti-democratic PM Meloni went openly against the antifascist Ventotene manifesto tinyurl.com/mr3mnzfr
This figure below is an empirical rough cut with a lot of tests to be done to be fine-tuned, but Italy made it to become a country in danger of potential autocratization this year…
This figure below is an empirical rough cut with a lot of tests to be done to be fine-tuned, but Italy made it to become a country in danger of potential autocratization this year…
How about changes in PSDI between elections?
- negative changes in PSDI are significantly associated with autocratization onset in the short- and mid-run.
- limited evidence of short- and med-run positive changes in PSDI and democratization. Slower process of party systems’ democratization.
- negative changes in PSDI are significantly associated with autocratization onset in the short- and mid-run.
- limited evidence of short- and med-run positive changes in PSDI and democratization. Slower process of party systems’ democratization.
March 15, 2025 at 7:05 AM
How about changes in PSDI between elections?
- negative changes in PSDI are significantly associated with autocratization onset in the short- and mid-run.
- limited evidence of short- and med-run positive changes in PSDI and democratization. Slower process of party systems’ democratization.
- negative changes in PSDI are significantly associated with autocratization onset in the short- and mid-run.
- limited evidence of short- and med-run positive changes in PSDI and democratization. Slower process of party systems’ democratization.
We then ask how the PSDI affects democratization and autocratization and find a non-linear relationship.
Party systems with more contested commitment to democratic principles are around 10%-15% more likely to have democratization/autocratization.
Party systems with more contested commitment to democratic principles are around 10%-15% more likely to have democratization/autocratization.
March 15, 2025 at 7:05 AM
We then ask how the PSDI affects democratization and autocratization and find a non-linear relationship.
Party systems with more contested commitment to democratic principles are around 10%-15% more likely to have democratization/autocratization.
Party systems with more contested commitment to democratic principles are around 10%-15% more likely to have democratization/autocratization.
As practical example, we present the change in the PSDI over time in:
(i) a liberal democracy (Germany) – look at the 2017 sig. changes with AfD!
(ii) autocratizing country (India)
(iii) democratizing country (Mexico 1988-2001)
(iv) closed/electoral autocracy (Soviet Union/Russian Federation)
(i) a liberal democracy (Germany) – look at the 2017 sig. changes with AfD!
(ii) autocratizing country (India)
(iii) democratizing country (Mexico 1988-2001)
(iv) closed/electoral autocracy (Soviet Union/Russian Federation)
March 15, 2025 at 7:05 AM
As practical example, we present the change in the PSDI over time in:
(i) a liberal democracy (Germany) – look at the 2017 sig. changes with AfD!
(ii) autocratizing country (India)
(iii) democratizing country (Mexico 1988-2001)
(iv) closed/electoral autocracy (Soviet Union/Russian Federation)
(i) a liberal democracy (Germany) – look at the 2017 sig. changes with AfD!
(ii) autocratizing country (India)
(iii) democratizing country (Mexico 1988-2001)
(iv) closed/electoral autocracy (Soviet Union/Russian Federation)
Any party system can have competition around regime preferences (more/less democratic) that depends on individual parties’ regime preferences and their electoral strength.
This constitutes the party system latent democratic level where democratic stances may be respected, contested, or rejected.
This constitutes the party system latent democratic level where democratic stances may be respected, contested, or rejected.
March 15, 2025 at 7:05 AM
Any party system can have competition around regime preferences (more/less democratic) that depends on individual parties’ regime preferences and their electoral strength.
This constitutes the party system latent democratic level where democratic stances may be respected, contested, or rejected.
This constitutes the party system latent democratic level where democratic stances may be respected, contested, or rejected.
We also dove into the typologies of U-Turns, proposing three:
1. Authoritarian Manipulation (dictators first autocratizing then democratizing for legitimization purposes)
2. Democratic Reactions (actors like opposition parties & CSOs resisting autocratization)
3. International Interventions
1. Authoritarian Manipulation (dictators first autocratizing then democratizing for legitimization purposes)
2. Democratic Reactions (actors like opposition parties & CSOs resisting autocratization)
3. International Interventions
January 27, 2025 at 1:50 PM
We also dove into the typologies of U-Turns, proposing three:
1. Authoritarian Manipulation (dictators first autocratizing then democratizing for legitimization purposes)
2. Democratic Reactions (actors like opposition parties & CSOs resisting autocratization)
3. International Interventions
1. Authoritarian Manipulation (dictators first autocratizing then democratizing for legitimization purposes)
2. Democratic Reactions (actors like opposition parties & CSOs resisting autocratization)
3. International Interventions
Democracy in most U-Turns at some point broke down, but it wasn't the end of the episode and most countries even improved their democracy levels at the end.
January 27, 2025 at 1:50 PM
Democracy in most U-Turns at some point broke down, but it wasn't the end of the episode and most countries even improved their democracy levels at the end.
Diving a bit more into the conditions of U-Turns, they are increasingly happening in *electoral democracies* while before they were predominantly taking place in *electoral autocracies*.
January 27, 2025 at 1:50 PM
Diving a bit more into the conditions of U-Turns, they are increasingly happening in *electoral democracies* while before they were predominantly taking place in *electoral autocracies*.
This figure shows the historical trends for democratization, autocratization, and U-Turns.
The relationship between the red- and green-shaded areas in this figure reveals a systematic difference in U-Turn development across the three waves of autocratization and democratization.
The relationship between the red- and green-shaded areas in this figure reveals a systematic difference in U-Turn development across the three waves of autocratization and democratization.
January 27, 2025 at 1:50 PM
This figure shows the historical trends for democratization, autocratization, and U-Turns.
The relationship between the red- and green-shaded areas in this figure reveals a systematic difference in U-Turn development across the three waves of autocratization and democratization.
The relationship between the red- and green-shaded areas in this figure reveals a systematic difference in U-Turn development across the three waves of autocratization and democratization.
On top of all evidence showing Trump's authoritarian traits, here are two more visuals.
US party system's democracy index (PSDI) shows alarming erosions over the last 10 years dropping by 25%. Much more than the overall democracy levels.
Tomorrow's vote is so much about democratic preferences.
US party system's democracy index (PSDI) shows alarming erosions over the last 10 years dropping by 25%. Much more than the overall democracy levels.
Tomorrow's vote is so much about democratic preferences.
November 4, 2024 at 11:15 AM
On top of all evidence showing Trump's authoritarian traits, here are two more visuals.
US party system's democracy index (PSDI) shows alarming erosions over the last 10 years dropping by 25%. Much more than the overall democracy levels.
Tomorrow's vote is so much about democratic preferences.
US party system's democracy index (PSDI) shows alarming erosions over the last 10 years dropping by 25%. Much more than the overall democracy levels.
Tomorrow's vote is so much about democratic preferences.
Wasn’t there also a boba pizza at some point?
October 18, 2024 at 1:08 PM
Wasn’t there also a boba pizza at some point?
At @apsgworkshop.bsky.social we just circulated the first monthly newsletter.
What will you find?
All news from authoritarian politics research (publications, job market candidates, job advertisements etc) — of course!
Keep up to date on the field all in one email at: tinyurl.com/427mveu5
What will you find?
All news from authoritarian politics research (publications, job market candidates, job advertisements etc) — of course!
Keep up to date on the field all in one email at: tinyurl.com/427mveu5
September 27, 2024 at 12:46 PM
At @apsgworkshop.bsky.social we just circulated the first monthly newsletter.
What will you find?
All news from authoritarian politics research (publications, job market candidates, job advertisements etc) — of course!
Keep up to date on the field all in one email at: tinyurl.com/427mveu5
What will you find?
All news from authoritarian politics research (publications, job market candidates, job advertisements etc) — of course!
Keep up to date on the field all in one email at: tinyurl.com/427mveu5
We only have data up to 2019, BUT the UK party system's anti-democratic turn is clear.
The new Foreign Secretary Cameron left the Conservative Party's head right before that long red trough in 2016 👀
Papers: tinyurl.com/422e835t & tinyurl.com/mrnf39kr
Graphing tools: tinyurl.com/mdm98eru
Polisky
The new Foreign Secretary Cameron left the Conservative Party's head right before that long red trough in 2016 👀
Papers: tinyurl.com/422e835t & tinyurl.com/mrnf39kr
Graphing tools: tinyurl.com/mdm98eru
Polisky
November 16, 2023 at 8:09 PM
We only have data up to 2019, BUT the UK party system's anti-democratic turn is clear.
The new Foreign Secretary Cameron left the Conservative Party's head right before that long red trough in 2016 👀
Papers: tinyurl.com/422e835t & tinyurl.com/mrnf39kr
Graphing tools: tinyurl.com/mdm98eru
Polisky
The new Foreign Secretary Cameron left the Conservative Party's head right before that long red trough in 2016 👀
Papers: tinyurl.com/422e835t & tinyurl.com/mrnf39kr
Graphing tools: tinyurl.com/mdm98eru
Polisky
Today's elections in Poland will give important signals on the state of resistance to autocratization.
Here is a plot w/ EDI and our new PSDI, which declined much earlier than EDI, highlighting the importance of *ALL* parties to uphold democratic stances.
WP: www.v-dem.net/media/public...
polisky
Here is a plot w/ EDI and our new PSDI, which declined much earlier than EDI, highlighting the importance of *ALL* parties to uphold democratic stances.
WP: www.v-dem.net/media/public...
polisky
October 15, 2023 at 1:44 PM
Today's elections in Poland will give important signals on the state of resistance to autocratization.
Here is a plot w/ EDI and our new PSDI, which declined much earlier than EDI, highlighting the importance of *ALL* parties to uphold democratic stances.
WP: www.v-dem.net/media/public...
polisky
Here is a plot w/ EDI and our new PSDI, which declined much earlier than EDI, highlighting the importance of *ALL* parties to uphold democratic stances.
WP: www.v-dem.net/media/public...
polisky