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F1pace
@f1pace.com
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Data-driven F1 analyst, passionate about racing insights.
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A tale of two pit stops for McLaren at the 2025 Italian GP.

My model gave Oscar Piastri a 7.13% (1 in 14) chance of a season-best fast stop, but Lando Norris only a 1.12% (1 in 89) chance of a disastrously slow one.

📊 Full article at f1pace.com

#F1 #Formula1 #ItalianGP #McLaren
A data visualization titled "2025 Italian GP: A tale of two pit stops: McLaren's best vs worst case scenarios." The chart displays two horizontal density plots for McLaren F1 drivers. Piastri's plot highlights a 7.13% probability of a pit stop being 1.91 seconds or faster. Norris's plot highlights a 1.12% probability of a pit stop being 5.87 seconds or slower.
September 7, 2025 at 7:21 PM
f1pace.com
Could Lando Norris have won the Belgian GP without his mistakes?

My analysis shows his three errors cost him ~4.75s. A simulation of a clean race suggests he could have caught Piastri and entered DRS range by lap 41.

📊 Full article at f1pace.com

#F1 #Formula1 #BelgianGP #LandoNorris
A line graph comparing Lando Norris’s real gap to Oscar Piastri versus a predicted gap without mistakes, plotted across laps 15 to 44 of the 2025 Belgian GP. The “Real delta” line shows several sharp increases on laps 26, 34, and 43, reflecting Norris’s costly errors. The “Predicted delta” line remains consistently lower, illustrating that without these mistakes, Norris could have caught Piastri by the closing laps. The x-axis is laps, and the y-axis is time gap to Piastri in seconds.
July 28, 2025 at 8:57 AM
f1pace.com
Pirelli's Soft-Med-Med strategy looks risky. My model shows the medium tire degrading heavily in the sprint (~3s in 15 laps).

The safer bet is a Med->Hard one-stop. A Med->Hard->Med is the alternative 2-stopper.

A Soft->Hard->Medium is a possibility for someone like Hamilton.

#F1 #BelgianGP
A line graph from the 2025 Belgian GP sprint showing tire degradation. The x-axis shows 'Laps into stint' and the y-axis shows 'Performance delta (seconds).' A yellow trend line, representing the Medium tire, curves steeply upwards, showing performance loss increasing from 0 to nearly 3 seconds over a 15-lap stint.
July 27, 2025 at 2:45 AM
f1pace.com
Who's converting potential into performance in the F1 pit lane this season? My latest data analysis breaks it down.

Ferrari & Racing Bulls: Massively overperforming.
Red Bull: Strong as always.
McLaren: Top potential, but currently struggling.

📊 Full article at f1pace.com

#F1 #F1pace
A vertical bar chart titled 'Potential vs. Performance: An F1 Pit Stop Analysis,' ranking 10 F1 teams by their pit stop speed. Each team is listed with its logo, a colored distribution plot, a black square for its expected pit time (xPT), and a dotted line for its real average time. The data for each team is as follows: Ferrari: xPT = 2.55s, Real = 2.41s, Delta = -0.15s Red Bull: xPT = 2.65s, Real = 2.65s, Delta = 0s McLaren: xPT = 2.68s, Real = 2.89s, Delta = +0.22s Racing Bulls: xPT = 2.72s, Real = 2.58s, Delta = -0.14s Sauber: xPT = 2.74s, Real = 2.76s, Delta = +0.02s Alpine: xPT = 2.74s, Real = 2.92s, Delta = +0.17s Mercedes: xPT = 2.77s, Real = 2.74s, Delta = -0.03s Williams: xPT = 3.00s, Real = 2.94s, Delta = -0.06s Aston Martin: xPT = 3.02s, Real = 2.99s, Delta = -0.03s Haas: xPT = 3.05s, Real = 3.01s, Delta = -0.04s A legend at the bottom explains that the colored shape shows the plausible range for a clean pit stop, the black square is the midpoint of that potential (xPT), and the dotted line is their actual average performance.
July 22, 2025 at 7:06 AM
f1pace.com
Is Ferrari's pit crew currently the best on the grid? The data says yes. Racing Bulls edges out Red Bull, while Aston Martin and Haas struggle.

Which team's performance surprises you the most?

I'll be doing a deeper dive into this in a full article soon!

📊 More at f1pace.com
#F1 #F1pace
A vertical data visualization titled "2025 F1 Season," with the subtitle "Pit stop performance in the fastest 95% of all stops." The chart ranks the ten Formula 1 teams from fastest to slowest based on their mean pit stop time. Each team has its own row, which includes its logo, its mean pit stop time in a large font, and a horizontal dot plot showing the distribution of its individual stop times. The teams and their mean times are: *Ferrari: 2.41s *Racing Bulls: 2.58s *Red Bull: 2.65s *Mercedes: 2.74s *Sauber: 2.76s *McLaren: 2.89s *Alpine: 2.92s *Williams: 2.94s *Aston Martin: 2.99s *Haas: 3.01s Overlaid on the dots are three nested, shaded areas representing the 50%, 80%, and 95% Highest Density Continuous Intervals (HDCI) of the mean, indicating the certainty of the average. A caption at the bottom clarifies: "The mean is indicated by the vertical line and the number at left. The shaded areas represent the 50%, 80%, and 95% Highest Density Continuous Intervals (HDCI) of the mean."
July 11, 2025 at 12:08 PM
f1pace.com
Updated look at 2025 F1 teammate qualifying battles after 11 races. Hulkenberg vs Bortoleto and Piastri vs. Norris remain among the closest battles, while Verstappen maintains a clear advantage over Tsunoda.
📊 More at f1pace.com
#F1 #Qualifying #F1pace
A dot plot chart titled "2025 F1 Season (rounds 1 - 11) Mean qualifying delta between teammates". The chart ranks Formula 1 teammate pairings by their average time gap in qualifying sessions, from the smallest gap to the largest. Each row displays a team's logo, the mean delta in seconds, the driver names (with the faster driver listed first), and a plot of individual qualifying results. The rankings begin with the smallest gap at Sauber, where Hulkenberg is faster than Bortoleto by 0.061s. At McLaren, Piastri leads Norris by 0.081s, followed by Haas, where Ocon is ahead of Bearman by 0.122s. At Ferrari, Leclerc is faster than Hamilton by 0.151s, and at Williams, Albon is ahead of Sainz by 0.177s. The midfield gaps show Hadjar at Racing Bulls ahead of Tsunoda by 0.179s and Lawson by 0.222s. At Alpine, Gasly is faster than Colapinto by 0.237s and Doohan by 0.367s. Further down, Russell at Mercedes has a 0.312s advantage over Antonelli, and Alonso at Aston Martin is 0.359s faster than Stroll. The largest gaps are at Red Bull, where Verstappen is significantly faster than Tsunoda by 0.686s and Lawson by 0.88s.
July 2, 2025 at 7:32 AM
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After 10 rounds of the 2025 season, we’re starting to see which teammates are pushing each other and which battles are a bit one-sided. Hulkenberg and Bortoleto are neck and neck, while Verstappen is way ahead of Tsunoda.
📊 More at f1pace.com
#F1 #Qualifying #F1pace
A chart titled “2025 F1 Season (rounds 1–10)” showing the average qualifying gap between teammates. Each row lists a team and displays the faster driver first, along with how many sessions they participated in. To the right, colored dots represent the qualifying deltas from each session, plotted horizontally around a central zero line, where negative values indicate a lead over their teammate. At the top, Hulkenberg leads Bortoleto by an average of 0.107 seconds across 7 sessions, followed closely by Piastri over Norris at 0.137s, and Ocon over Bearman at 0.146s. Other close pairings include Albon over Sainz and Leclerc over Hamilton, both with gaps around 0.15s. The mid-table includes Hadjar vs Tsunoda and Gasly vs Colapinto with deltas in the 0.17s–0.18s range. Mercedes shows a larger difference, with Russell ahead of Antonelli by nearly 0.30s. Further down, we see more one-sided gaps: Gasly leads Doohan by 0.367s, Alonso leads Stroll by 0.378s, and the largest differences come from Red Bull. Verstappen holds a 0.739s average advantage over Tsunoda, and an even greater 0.88s over Lawson, with neither of his teammates having completed more than a few sessions. The chart emphasizes teammate performance differences using colored dots for each session, with a clear indication of whether a driver was faster or slower than their teammate. The x-axis runs from -1.5 to +1.5 seconds.
June 17, 2025 at 11:17 AM
f1pace.com
The full pace chart from the 2025 F1 Canadian Grand Prix. Super tight at the front, with Russell, Verstappen, Antonelli, Norris and Piastri all within a tenth. Further back, some drivers had a much tougher time.
📊 More at f1pace.com
#F1 #CanadianGP #F1pace
Bar chart showing the summarized race pace for the 2025 Canadian GP. Russell leads at 1:15.539, followed by Verstappen (+0.02), Antonelli (+0.05), Norris (+0.06), and Piastri (+0.08). The top 5 are separated by just 0.08s. Further back: Leclerc (+0.34), Hamilton (+0.63), Alonso (+1.04), Hulkenberg (+1.36), Stroll (+1.42), Ocon (+1.54), Sainz (+1.6), Bearman (+1.69), Tsunoda (+1.81), Colapinto (+1.83), Hadjar (+1.85), Gasly (+1.85), Bortoleto (+1.86), Albon (+2.03), and Lawson (+2.24).
June 16, 2025 at 10:17 AM
f1pace.com
The top 5 in the 2025 F1 Canadian Grand Prix were barely separated. Less than a tenth covered Russell, Verstappen, Antonelli, Norris and Piastri on race pace. Super tight field this weekend.
📊 More at f1pace.com
#F1 #CanadianGP #F1pace #McLaren #Mercedes #RedBull
Race pace comparison chart for the 2025 Canadian GP. The chart shows lap times for the top five drivers: George Russell, Max Verstappen, Kimi Antonelli, Lando Norris, and Oscar Piastri. Each driver’s laps are represented with dots, color-coded per driver. Shapes indicate traffic conditions: diamonds for laps in traffic and circles for laps with minimal or no traffic. Russell averaged 1:15.539, Verstappen was 0.021 seconds slower, Antonelli 0.048 seconds behind, Norris 0.064 seconds back, and Piastri 0.084 seconds off. All five drivers were within 0.1 seconds of each other, showing an extremely close race pace among Mercedes, Red Bull, and McLaren. The background is shaded to highlight the performance range of each driver.
June 16, 2025 at 6:23 AM
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Spanish GP pace: Piastri (1:19.721) edges Norris by less than 1 tenth of a second (+0.06s). Piastri had more clean air laps (circles) compared to Norris navigating more traffic (diamonds).
📊 f1pace.com
#F1 #F1pace #SpanishGP #McLaren #Piastri #Norris
A scatter plot chart titled "2025 Spanish GP Race pace" compares the lap times of McLaren teammates Oscar Piastri (left) and Lando Norris (right). The vertical axis shows "Time per lap," with lower values being faster. A legend indicates diamond symbols for laps "In traffic" and circle symbols for "Minimal or no traffic." Oscar Piastri's average lap time is 1:19.721. His data points, mostly circles, show a dense cluster between 1:19.000 and 1:20.500, especially in the middle phase of the race (lap numbers visible inside symbols, e.g., 20s-40s). He has a distinct group of very fast laps (circles, laps 61-66) below the 1:17.000 mark towards the race end. Fewer diamond symbols (traffic) are present in his plot. Lando Norris's average lap time is 1:19.781 (+0.06s to Piastri). His plot displays a visibly greater number of red diamond symbols (in traffic), particularly in the earlier laps (e.g., 1-20) and another cluster around laps 51-54. His circle symbols (minimal/no traffic) are more interspersed with these traffic laps. He also shows fast laps at the end (laps 61-66), some marked as circles, some as diamonds. Overall, the visual distribution of symbols suggests Piastri maintained more consistent pacing in cleaner air for longer stretches, while Norris encountered traffic more frequently. Images of both drivers in their McLaren race suits are below their respective data columns. The source "www.f1pace.com" and the "F1pace" logo are at the bottom.
June 2, 2025 at 12:19 PM
f1pace.com
Spanish GP traffic data shows Piastri's strategic edge. Running in clean air 88% of the time allowed him to manage pace & tires effectively. Norris, in traffic for over 35% of his race, likely faced a tougher time with tire deg.
📊 More at f1pace.com
#F1 #F1pace #SpanishGP #Piastri #Norris #McLaren
A horizontal bar chart titled "2025 Spanish GP % of time spent in traffic" displays data for Formula 1 drivers. Each driver is listed vertically with their team logo, followed by a two-toned bar representing their race. The red portion of the bar indicates the percentage of time spent "In traffic," while the blue portion shows "Not in traffic." Alex Albon (Williams) is at the top, having spent the most time in traffic at 78.7%. Conversely, Oscar Piastri (McLaren) is at the bottom, having spent the least time in traffic at 12.0% (meaning 88.0% not in traffic). Other drivers show varied experiences; for instance, Esteban Ocon (Alpine) spent 72.2% in traffic, while Kimi Antonelli (Mercedes) spent only 14.2%. The x-axis at the bottom is labeled from 0% to 100%. A legend below the bars clarifies that red means "In traffic" and blue means "Not in traffic." The source "www.f1pace.com" and the "F1pace" logo are at the very bottom.
June 1, 2025 at 11:43 PM
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Mean qualifying gaps between F1 teammates after 7 rounds! Ranges from nearly a second (Verstappen/Lawson & Verstappen/Tsunoda) down to less than a tenth (Albon/Sainz & Piastri/Norris). Who's surprising you most?
📊 More at f1pace.com
#F1 #F1pace
A horizontal bar chart titled "2025 F1 Season (rounds 1-7): Mean qualifying delta between teammates." Each row displays a Formula 1 team logo and the names of two teammates, illustrating the average time difference between them in qualifying sessions. The driver listed on the left is the one with the faster average qualifying time, and the length of the bar extending to the right indicates the magnitude of this time delta in seconds. The chart shows a wide range of differences: the largest gaps are Max Verstappen leading Liam Lawson by 0.88 seconds and Yuki Tsunoda by 0.864 seconds. Other significant deltas include Pierre Gasly over Esteban Ocon (0.367s) and Fernando Alonso over Lance Stroll (0.297s). The smallest depicted gap is between Piastri and Norris, with Piastri ahead by just 0.062 seconds. The x-axis at the bottom is labeled "Seconds" and ranges from 0 to 1.0, with tick marks every 0.25 seconds.
May 21, 2025 at 8:13 AM
f1pace.com
Imola traffic: Verstappen: 96.4% clean air. Colapinto, Sainz, Antonelli: >75% in traffic. A clear look at the vastly different race conditions faced by drivers.
📊 More analyses at f1pace.com
#F1 #F1pace
A horizontal bar chart titled "2025 Emilia Romagna GP: % of Time Spent in Traffic" visually represents the proportion of the race each Formula 1 driver spent in traffic versus in clean air. Each driver is listed vertically on the left, accompanied by their respective team logo. Horizontal bars extend to the right, color-coded to show "In Traffic" (red segment) and "Not in Traffic" (blue segment). Max Verstappen's bar, located near the bottom, is predominantly blue, indicating he spent 96.4% of the race "Not in Traffic." In stark contrast, drivers like Franco Colapinto, Carlos Sainz, and Kimi Antonelli, positioned towards the top of the chart, have bars that are overwhelmingly red, signifying they spent over 75% of their race "In Traffic." Other drivers like Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri show a more mixed experience, with Norris at 71.4% "Not in Traffic" and Piastri at 56.2% "Not in Traffic." The chart effectively highlights the disparity in track conditions, with drivers at the front experiencing significantly more clean air.
May 20, 2025 at 7:10 AM
f1pace.com
Max Verstappen absolutely dominated the 2025 Emilia Romagna GP race pace. 🇮🇹
His average lap time (1:20.305) was comfortably ahead of both McLarens, with Norris (+0.184s) and Piastri (+0.238s) trailing behind. Top performance by the Dutchman.
📊 More analyses at f1pace.com

#F1 #ImolaGP #Verstappen
A data chart titled "2025 Emilia Romagna GP Race Pace" compares lap times for Max Verstappen, Lando Norris, and Oscar Piastri. Verstappen's lap times, marked in blue, cluster tightly in the lower, faster range of the graph, indicating strong consistency and speed throughout the race. Norris and Piastri, shown in orange and brown, have their lap times consistently higher and more scattered. Each driver’s average lap time is listed at the top: Verstappen at 1:20.305, Norris at 1:20.489 (+0.184s), Piastri at 1:20.543 (+0.238s). Symbols distinguish laps in traffic (diamonds) versus laps with minimal or no traffic (circles). The bottom features each driver in their team uniform: Verstappen in blue, Norris and Piastri in orange. The overall graphic visually emphasizes Verstappen’s clear lead over both McLaren drivers.
May 19, 2025 at 7:05 AM
f1pace.com
Antonelli had the edge, but the Ferrari drivers were right there with him. Hamilton and Leclerc spent several laps stuck behind each other, and Ferrari likely waited too long to switch. With a quicker call, they might’ve had a real shot at getting ahead.
📊 More at f1pace.com
#F1 #MiamiGP #Ferrari
Race pace comparison from the 2025 Miami GP between Kimi Antonelli, Charles Leclerc, and Lewis Hamilton. Antonelli averaged 1:31.945, with Leclerc and Hamilton just 0.048s and 0.092s slower. Both Ferrari drivers lost time in the second stint by running behind each other, potentially missing an opportunity to challenge Antonelli more directly.
May 6, 2025 at 12:02 AM
f1pace.com
McLaren were flying in Miami 🇺🇲.
Piastri had the edge over Norris, but both were well clear of Verstappen—Max was over 0.6s off on race pace. Not the kind of gap we’re used to seeing.
📊 More at f1pace.com
#F1 #MiamiGP #RacePace
Race pace comparison from the 2025 Miami GP between Oscar Piastri, Lando Norris, and Max Verstappen. The chart shows lap times with markers indicating whether each lap was in traffic or not. Piastri leads with an average of 1:31.113, followed closely by Norris at 1:31.203 (+0.090), while Verstappen trails with 1:31.751 (+0.638). Piastri and Norris have a dense cluster of fast laps, especially out of traffic, while Verstappen's laps are more spread out and consistently slower.
May 5, 2025 at 6:01 AM
f1pace.com
Verstappen keeps dominating his teammates in qualifying this season—over 1% quicker than Lawson and nearly as much over Tsunoda. Matching Max in qualifying looks as tough as ever at Red Bull.
📊 More charts and analyses at f1pace.com
#F1 #F1pace
Bar chart showing the mean qualifying delta between Formula 1 teammates after rounds 1-5 of the 2025 season. Each bar represents the symmetric percent difference between two teammates, with the leading driver listed first. The largest gap is "VER over LAW" (Verstappen over Lawson) at 1.034%, followed by "VER over TSU" (Verstappen over Tsunoda) at 0.858%. Other teammate gaps range from 0.47% (Gasly over Doohan) down to 0.113% (Bearman over Ocon). Team colors and logos are displayed next to each pairing. The x-axis is labeled "Symmetric percent difference (%)."
April 23, 2025 at 2:58 PM
f1pace.com
Leclerc was in control in Saudi 🇸🇦, averaging 0.6s per lap faster than Hamilton. While Charles looked comfortable, Lewis struggled to keep pace during the race.
📊 More charts and analyses at f1pace.com
#F1 #Ferrari #F1pace #SaudiArabianGP
Race pace comparison from the 2025 Saudi Arabian GP between Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton. Leclerc averaged 1:33.419 per lap, while Hamilton was +0.602s slower at 1:34.021. The chart displays lap times vertically with lap numbers inside circles. Leclerc's laps are clustered consistently faster, especially in the second stint. Both drivers are shown at the bottom wearing Ferrari suits.
April 21, 2025 at 9:40 AM
f1pace.com
Alex Albon edged out Liam Lawson in race pace at the Chinese GP 🇨🇳 with a 1:37.711 average, 0.003s quicker than Lawson. Alex managed it with only one pit stop, while Liam needed two.
📊 More charts at f1pace.com
#F1 #ChineseGP #RacePace #Albon #LiamLawson
A race pace comparison chart for the 2025 Chinese GP featuring Alex Albon and Liam Lawson. The chart displays lap times on the y-axis and lap numbers marked as circles. Albon's average race pace was 1:37.711, while Lawson was just +0.003s slower at 1:37.714. Despite making one fewer pit stop, Albon maintained a slightly better pace. The lap distributions are shown in shaded blue sections, with Albon's laps on the left and Lawson's on the right. Their images and team colors are displayed at the bottom.
March 24, 2025 at 1:23 AM
f1pace.com
Mercedes, Red Bull, and Ferrari were closely matched in the 2025 Chinese GP 🇨🇳
Among them, Russell was the fastest with a 1:37.104 average, but Verstappen (+0.043) and Leclerc (+0.192) were right behind. If this trend continues, we’re in for a close season.
📊 More charts at f1pace.com
#F1 #ChineseGP
A race pace comparison chart for the 2025 Chinese GP, featuring George Russell, Max Verstappen, and Charles Leclerc. The chart displays lap times on the vertical axis, with each driver's laps represented as numbered circles within their respective colored zones: Russell (Mercedes, green): 1:37.104 Verstappen (Red Bull, blue): 1:37.147 (+0.043) Leclerc (Ferrari, red): 1:37.296 (+0.192) Russell had the fastest average race pace of the three drivers, while Verstappen and Leclerc were close behind. The chart highlights the distribution of lap times for each driver. Below, images of the three drivers appear alongside their names. The website "www.f1pace.com" is displayed at the bottom.
March 23, 2025 at 9:53 AM
f1pace.com
Lewis Hamilton was the fastest in the F1 2025 Chinese GP sprint, averaging 1:36.852 per lap. Piastri (+0.267) and Verstappen (+0.502) followed. A strong day for Lewis.
📊 More charts at f1pace.com
#F1 #ChineseGP #F1Sprint #RacePace
A race pace comparison chart for the 2025 Chinese GP sprint, featuring Lewis Hamilton, Oscar Piastri, and Max Verstappen. The chart displays lap times on the vertical axis and lap numbers as labeled circles within colored zones corresponding to each driver. Hamilton (Ferrari) is in red, Piastri (McLaren) in orange, and Verstappen (Red Bull) in blue. The average lap times are: Hamilton: 1:36.852 Piastri: 1:37.118 (+0.267) Verstappen: 1:37.354 (+0.502) The chart visually highlights the consistency and spread of each driver's lap times. At the bottom, images of the three drivers appear alongside their names. The website "www.f1pace.com" is displayed at the bottom.
March 22, 2025 at 5:55 AM
f1pace.com
I will be covering the 2025 pre-season testing. It will take me a few days to create some meaningful analyses so stay tuned.
February 27, 2025 at 7:27 PM
f1pace.com
First post on Bsky! I just simulated whether staying within three-tenths of Verstappen in the 2024 Formula 1 season would’ve been enough for a hypothetical Liam Lawson. How would the season look at Red Bull with two drivers who delivered strong performances in qualifying?
f1pace.com/p/2024-f1-se...
2024 F1 Season: Simulations and the daunting task of matching Max Verstappen
Would staying within three-tenths of Verstappen have been enough for Liam Lawson in 2024?
f1pace.com
January 27, 2025 at 12:38 AM