Jeff
@excessivefarce.bsky.social
Leftish data scientist dipping his toes back into the social media pool. Photo is my dog.
Offense being meh I expected. The defense being bad is shocking.
December 19, 2025 at 3:33 AM
Offense being meh I expected. The defense being bad is shocking.
Dunno why you’re posting about local zoning when warcriminals run the DoD and our president is inciting pogroms on whole ethnic groups.
December 6, 2025 at 8:44 PM
Dunno why you’re posting about local zoning when warcriminals run the DoD and our president is inciting pogroms on whole ethnic groups.
Why are they zombie hands?
Also the actual engraving looks like it was done at the local trophy shop.
Also the actual engraving looks like it was done at the local trophy shop.
December 6, 2025 at 12:48 AM
Why are they zombie hands?
Also the actual engraving looks like it was done at the local trophy shop.
Also the actual engraving looks like it was done at the local trophy shop.
I’m sure zuck, Altman, etc appreciate you having their backs!
November 26, 2025 at 4:26 PM
I’m sure zuck, Altman, etc appreciate you having their backs!
Ian Toll's's Pacific War trilogy very much has this quality.
November 19, 2025 at 11:26 PM
Ian Toll's's Pacific War trilogy very much has this quality.
Are they using their own performance as an inflation proxy? I sort of assume it's just that they have access to a very large list of prices.
November 13, 2025 at 11:39 PM
Are they using their own performance as an inflation proxy? I sort of assume it's just that they have access to a very large list of prices.
I wonder if the modern pop culture obsession with canon and continuity has made it such that writers simply can’t do this.
Otoh: reboots are a huge thing!
Otoh: reboots are a huge thing!
November 11, 2025 at 4:09 PM
I wonder if the modern pop culture obsession with canon and continuity has made it such that writers simply can’t do this.
Otoh: reboots are a huge thing!
Otoh: reboots are a huge thing!
That second half was quite a bit less than impressive, offensively. The Hawks have struggled to close out games this season and this felt like that, albeit with an insurmountable lead. Should i worry? Or was this just some “shit happens” stuff that’s no big deal.
November 10, 2025 at 1:02 AM
That second half was quite a bit less than impressive, offensively. The Hawks have struggled to close out games this season and this felt like that, albeit with an insurmountable lead. Should i worry? Or was this just some “shit happens” stuff that’s no big deal.
And then this drive.... :(
November 9, 2025 at 11:11 PM
And then this drive.... :(
From a Hawks perspective this makes no sense. The Seahawks aren’t a high volume pass team. They‘re 31st in using 11 personne. whose snaps is Shaheed going to take?
November 4, 2025 at 6:28 PM
From a Hawks perspective this makes no sense. The Seahawks aren’t a high volume pass team. They‘re 31st in using 11 personne. whose snaps is Shaheed going to take?
Guess we're in the "Hm I guess the banks don't need to be regulated" part of the cycle.
November 1, 2025 at 5:47 PM
Guess we're in the "Hm I guess the banks don't need to be regulated" part of the cycle.
I have this thesis that politics has/is degenerating into pure aesthetics I should try to develop.
October 31, 2025 at 4:18 PM
I have this thesis that politics has/is degenerating into pure aesthetics I should try to develop.
Yeah like it’s probably as simple as “I could have grok rewrite Wikipedia to be less woke” and that’s that.
October 29, 2025 at 6:37 PM
Yeah like it’s probably as simple as “I could have grok rewrite Wikipedia to be less woke” and that’s that.
"What customer benefit does it promise to anyone?" Wikipedia without wokeness, presumably.
"Does Musk think..." I think trying to conduct a theory of Musk Mind is going to be pretty challenging tbh. I don't think he has the capacity for thinking strategically at this point.
"Does Musk think..." I think trying to conduct a theory of Musk Mind is going to be pretty challenging tbh. I don't think he has the capacity for thinking strategically at this point.
October 29, 2025 at 4:52 PM
"What customer benefit does it promise to anyone?" Wikipedia without wokeness, presumably.
"Does Musk think..." I think trying to conduct a theory of Musk Mind is going to be pretty challenging tbh. I don't think he has the capacity for thinking strategically at this point.
"Does Musk think..." I think trying to conduct a theory of Musk Mind is going to be pretty challenging tbh. I don't think he has the capacity for thinking strategically at this point.
I feel like the degree to which the Seahawks have a boom or bust offense is underappreciated.
October 28, 2025 at 3:50 PM
I feel like the degree to which the Seahawks have a boom or bust offense is underappreciated.
A lot of these folks correctly reckon that a modernized Democratic Party would reduce their influence and possibly threaten their income.
October 27, 2025 at 6:44 PM
A lot of these folks correctly reckon that a modernized Democratic Party would reduce their influence and possibly threaten their income.
I haven’t! But I’m not the one making these models. Best practice is to measure goodness of fit and report it, which these firms do not do.
My belief is that a 98% WP should be followed by a win about 98% of the time. My impression is that for these models that is not the case.
My belief is that a 98% WP should be followed by a win about 98% of the time. My impression is that for these models that is not the case.
October 20, 2025 at 3:35 PM
I haven’t! But I’m not the one making these models. Best practice is to measure goodness of fit and report it, which these firms do not do.
My belief is that a 98% WP should be followed by a win about 98% of the time. My impression is that for these models that is not the case.
My belief is that a 98% WP should be followed by a win about 98% of the time. My impression is that for these models that is not the case.
Idk if they suck donkey balls. I do know that most of the firms running them don’t report variance or measures of fit, and I cynically assume that’s for a reason. WP 98% is much more exciting than WP (65%,99%)
October 20, 2025 at 12:31 AM
Idk if they suck donkey balls. I do know that most of the firms running them don’t report variance or measures of fit, and I cynically assume that’s for a reason. WP 98% is much more exciting than WP (65%,99%)
Sure did. It was wild!
My point stands. Model shouldn’t be swinging that wildly that frequently. My guess is you have huge CI around that estimate.
Have you done measure of fitness study on the model? How often does (say) 98% WP hold up?
My point stands. Model shouldn’t be swinging that wildly that frequently. My guess is you have huge CI around that estimate.
Have you done measure of fitness study on the model? How often does (say) 98% WP hold up?
October 19, 2025 at 11:44 PM
Sure did. It was wild!
My point stands. Model shouldn’t be swinging that wildly that frequently. My guess is you have huge CI around that estimate.
Have you done measure of fitness study on the model? How often does (say) 98% WP hold up?
My point stands. Model shouldn’t be swinging that wildly that frequently. My guess is you have huge CI around that estimate.
Have you done measure of fitness study on the model? How often does (say) 98% WP hold up?
Your model should not swing like this.
October 19, 2025 at 11:41 PM
Your model should not swing like this.
Yeah these models are not well calibrated and nobody shares their measures of fitness.
October 19, 2025 at 11:33 PM
Yeah these models are not well calibrated and nobody shares their measures of fitness.
I also find the analysis of progressivism = being good = difficult = eating your vegetables (in a sense) to be wrong, and oddly protestant inflected.
October 18, 2025 at 7:37 PM
I also find the analysis of progressivism = being good = difficult = eating your vegetables (in a sense) to be wrong, and oddly protestant inflected.
I don't disagree with you that modern conservatism is more or less an evil movement, and I agree that many (most? all?) of the individuals advancing it are also evil. But I feel like understanding social movements as the sum of individual morality gets us very far or is very useful.
October 18, 2025 at 7:36 PM
I don't disagree with you that modern conservatism is more or less an evil movement, and I agree that many (most? all?) of the individuals advancing it are also evil. But I feel like understanding social movements as the sum of individual morality gets us very far or is very useful.