P-value has been severely criticised for 7 decades (the paper in the screenshot was published in 1994). I guess it's not going to go away anytime soon...

Yes but this could either mean "the deaths are expected to continue to decrease" (without pandemic) or "the deaths are expected to increase due to 'dry tinder effect'" (www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...). A simple average is not perfect but it's more model-free.

Strange to cherry pick two states. How about a comparison of death rates across all blue and red states? Note red states generally had less stringent policies. www.bsg.ox.ac.uk/sites/defaul...

I asked ChatGPT how to calculate confidence intervals without researching and sourcing third-party R packages. Here’s the response.

Yes but they are all methods trying to match the UK with other countries, which is unnecessary. A more flexible approach is synthetic difference-in-difference, which only creates "parallel trend". See the comparision between SC and SDID www.nber.org/papers/w25532. The true effect may be smaller.

The correct word is "he" dictionary.cambridge.org/dictionary/e...

Maarten has a paper on that diagnprognres.biomedcentral.com/articles/10....

New meta-analysis of effects of 20mph speed limit in the UK shows 𝙣𝙤 statistically significant impact on killed or serious injured (KSI) crashes or injuries on sign-only schemes. t.co/WSvmnbLJ1n

Thanks for the link. Looks like the authors agreed with me that the existing research, in particular the "before and after studies" being reliant on, is weak in deriving causal relationships. Also the report only covers the potential benefit but not cost (e.g. journey time), though not their fault.

While it looks promising, it appears to be a simple before-after study (aka single-arm trial with baseline), which no expert in causal inference will consider as solid evidence.

I wouldn't create an account on Truth because the user base is so small (4Chan? Haven't even heard of it). Also X seems to be more align with the real world (www.pewresearch.org/journalism/2...), but I can understand this may not be useful for some users.

Suppose the value of time is £8/hr (assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/5a80bd...), then 2min is worth £0.27. The value of prevent a fatal accident is ~£1.7million (assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/673f68...) ...