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Evolving-Hockey
@evolving-hockey.com
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Your home for advanced NHL statistics on the web | Subscribe: https://evolving-hockey.com/subscribe/ | Created by @evolvingwild.evolving-hockey.com
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evolving-hockey.com
Oh boy, here we go!
S.J @ COL, 2025-11-16 - S.J 18.5% - 81.5% COL. Almost mirror reverse images of underlying shot metrics
November 26, 2025 at 12:37 PM
evolving-hockey.com
Our in-season Fantasy Projection tools have been updated for the '25-26 season! These include under/over performing estimates as well as rest-of & end-of season projections.

Glossary: evolving-hockey.com/glossary/fan...

Link: evolving-hockey.com/stats/fantas...
Screenshot of the Under/Over performing fantasy projections page on Evolving Hockey. Top 5 skaters shown: Leo Carlsson Cutter Gauthier Macklin Celebrini Connor Bedard Marcus Johansson
November 10, 2025 at 12:03 PM
evolving-hockey.com
## Announcement ##

All GAR, xGAR & RAPM data (along with QoT/QoC data) is now updated on the site for the '25-26 season!

We're a little early this year, so please have fun but also be safe. That said: McDavid for Selke?
RAPM chart from Evolving Hockey for Connor McDavid, '25-26. EV xGA/60 and CA/60 are both over 2 standard deviations above the positional mean. All powerplay components are well-above average.
October 27, 2025 at 11:12 AM
evolving-hockey.com
The teams went a little crazy yesterday
EH Win Probability Chart: MTL at EDM - Oilers gave up 4 unanswered goals before eventually coming back to win 6-5 EH Win Probability Chart: CAR at COL - CAR led most of the game before giving up 2 goals and going to the shootout... where they won 5-4 EH Win Probability Chart: S.J at NYR - multiple lead changes before S.J won in OT 6-5
October 24, 2025 at 11:27 AM
evolving-hockey.com
It's pretty clear who the best team in the NHL is... it's the Ducks, obviously.
EH Standard Team Tables Page - team stats at 5v5 (score & venue adjusted) Ducks leading in CF% (2 games played, 61.31%)
October 14, 2025 at 10:43 PM
evolving-hockey.com
There were a couple wild games out west
EH Win Probability Chart: CGY at EDM EDM went up 3-0 at the middle of the 2nd period, CGY scores 3 unanswered goals to tie and then wins in the shootout EH Win Probability Chart: L.A at VGK L.A goes up 3-1 by the end of the 2nd, but VGK score 2 goals to tie. 4 total more goals are scored and L.A wins in the shootout
October 9, 2025 at 5:39 AM
evolving-hockey.com
We're so back
EH Standard Team Tables Page after 2025-10-07 games
October 8, 2025 at 10:28 AM
evolving-hockey.com
It's that time of year - the 25-26 NHL season is here!
EH Game Projections, 2025-10-07: CHI at FLA: 41.7% - 58.3% PIT at NYR: 42.5% - 57.5% COL at L.A: 52.9% - 47.1%
October 7, 2025 at 10:31 AM
evolving-hockey.com
## '25-26 NHL Team Projections ##

They're up. They're live. Have fun but be safe.

evolving-hockey.com/blog/2025-20...
Screenshot of the Evolving Hockey team point projections table. I'm going to attempt to copy all of the information below: Metropolitan Rank Team Points Playoff% 1 SD± 1 Hurricanes 107.2 98.0 8.1 2 Capitals 94.0 67.1 8.4 3 Devils 93.5 66.2 8.4 4 Rangers 89.6 47.1 8.4 5 Blue Jackets 85.8 30.2 8.4 6 Islanders 84.6 24.9 8.4 7 Penguins 81.3 13.8 8.4 8 Flyers 78.7 8.6 8.4 Central Rank Team Points Playoff% 1 SD± 1 Avalanche 111.2 99.4 8.0 2 Stars 102.3 93.8 8.3 3 Mammoth 94.2 71.5 8.3 4 Jets 91.4 58.3 8.4 5 Blues 87.7 41.4 8.4 6 Wild 87.0 38.6 8.4 7 Predators 78.6 9.7 8.4 8 Blackhawks 73.1 3.0 8.3 Atlantic Rank Team Points Playoff% 1 SD± 1 Lightning 105.1 95.6 8.2 2 Sabres 98.8 84.5 8.3 3 Senators 96.4 75.4 8.4 4 Panthers 93.6 64.7 8.3 5 Maple Leafs 91.3 51.8 8.4 6 Canadiens 88.1 38.1 8.4 7 Red Wings 82.8 17.7 8.4 8 Bruins 82.1 16.3 8.4 Pacific Rank Team Points Playoff% 1 SD± 1 Oilers 110.3 99.3 8.0 2 Golden Knights 101.1 90.7 8.2 3 Kings 99.6 88.2 8.3 4 Canucks 91.0 55.1 8.3 5 Flames 83.9 23.6 8.4 6 Kraken 82.9 20.0 8.4 7 Ducks 76.0 5.4 8.4 8 Sharks 72.1 1.9 8.3
October 5, 2025 at 11:32 AM
evolving-hockey.com
And we're off
Shot chart for the St. Louis Blues - Dallas Stars 2025-09-20 preseason game. STL: 0.68xG, DAL: 0.68xG
September 20, 2025 at 11:43 PM
evolving-hockey.com
# - Announcement - #

NHL Fantasy Projections for the '25-26 season have been updated and are now live on the site! Check out our Glossary section for information on how the projections/tools work!

Projections: evolving-hockey.com/stats/fantas...

Glossary: evolving-hockey.com/glossary/fan...
Screenshot of the Fantasy Projections page from Evolving Hockey. Various filter and weight options are displayed at the top, and the top five players in the table based on the default weights for a points league appear below: Nathan MacKinnon David Pastrnak Nikita Kucherov Connor McDavid Leon Draisaitl
August 29, 2025 at 7:49 AM
evolving-hockey.com
It's everything you could ever want. Our 2025 NHL Free Agency Preview article is up!

This summer is going to be insane. Or it might not be. That would better for our models.

evolving-hockey.com/blog/evolvin...
Chart: Contracts Signed in May & June: Per Year Data: Evolving Hockey & CapFriendly Plot is a line graph with points at each year, which are shaded based on the number of contracts signed for the given year, showing the change in average cap hit of contracts signed during May & June from 2007-2025. X-axis shows years from 2007-2025, y-axis shows the average cap hit.
June 30, 2025 at 11:35 AM
evolving-hockey.com
Skater GAR Projections for the '25-26 season are now live on the site!

Projections can be found here: evolving-hockey.com/stats/player...

Have fun!
Screenshot of the Player Projections table from Evolving Hockey. Multiple filter options are shown at the top, and the top five players in the table are listed: Connor McDavid: 19.3 David Pastrnak: 17.2 Nathan MacKinnon: 15.7 Quinn Hughes: 15.1 Leon Draisaitl: 14.4
June 28, 2025 at 8:30 AM
evolving-hockey.com
And with that, the 24-25 NHL season comes to a close. We were cheering for a game 7, but the Panthers simply played too well. Thanks for sticking with us! We're looking forward to free agency!
EH Shot Chart - EDM at FLA, 2025-06-17: EDM 1.59 - 2.99 FLA (xGF). NHL rink showing diamonds for shots with the size corresponding to the xG value of each shot. Florida heavily dominated EH Rolling xGF Chart, 2025-06-17: EDM 1.59 - 3.82 FLA. Florida consistently higher all game (with added in shots at an empty net) EH Rolling Corsi Chart, 2025-06-17: EDM 53.9 - 56.5 FLA. Shot rates very consistent for each team throughout the entire game.
June 18, 2025 at 4:54 AM
evolving-hockey.com
Panthers vs. Oilers, Game 5. Let's go
EH Game Projection for Game 5 of the Stanley Cup Finals: FLA 47.6% - 52.4% EDM
June 14, 2025 at 10:08 AM
evolving-hockey.com
The 24-25 Stanley Cup Finals through 4 games. What a series.
EH Win Probability Chart - 2025-06-04, FLA at EDM EDM wins 4-3 in OT after coming back from a 1-3 deficit early in the 2nd period. EH Win Probability Chart - 2025-06-06, FLA at EDM FLA wins in OT 5-4 after a tumultuous first period and EDM tying the game 4-4 at the end of the 2nd period EH Win Probability Chart - 2025-06-09, EDM at FLA Blowout win by FLA EH Win Probability Chart - 2025-06-12, EDM at FLA EDM wins 5-4 in OT after FLA blows a 3-0 lead - FLA tied it 4-4 at the very end of the 3rd period to sent it to OT.
June 13, 2025 at 9:25 AM
evolving-hockey.com
The 2025 Stanley Cup Final is here!

Remember, have fun. And listen to Boyz II Men for some reason.

evolving-hockey.com/blog/evolvin...
Edmonton Oilers 52.9% Florida Panthers 47.1%
June 3, 2025 at 10:36 AM
evolving-hockey.com
It was a pretty exciting game from a win probability standpoint, but not really from a Corsi or xG standpoint... Regardless, Florida is moving on to the Stanley Cup Finals.
EH Rolling Win Probability Chart: FLA 5 - 3 CAR. CAR started out hot and then gave up 3 unanswered goals... They tied it to bring it back to basically 50/50 and then lost it EH Rolling Corsi Chart - All Sit, Adj: FLA 52.9 - 56.1 CAR. Rather uneventful, even, low event game. Line chart with two lines showing incremental increases EH Rolling xGF Chart - All Sit, Adj: FLA 7.23 - 2.62 CAR. Basically the same as the Corsi chart with several empy net shots having very high xG. Line chart with two lines showing incremental increases
May 29, 2025 at 4:46 AM
evolving-hockey.com
It's NHL Conference Finals time.

We got you.

evolving-hockey.com/blog/evolvin...
CAR (M2) vs. FLA (A3) 57.2% - 42.8% Carolina most likely in six games, but it's very even. DAL (C2) vs. EDM (P3) 49.6% - 50.4% Edmonton most likely in six games, but it's even more even.
May 20, 2025 at 10:38 AM
evolving-hockey.com
Really solid performance by the Jets - they limited Dallas substantially for most of the game.

Can the Jets pull off major comebacks in back-to-back series to make it to the WCF?? (we try to stay neutral here at Evolving-Hockey.com, but I kinda hope so ngl)
EH Rolling Cumulative Corsi Chart (All Sit, No Adj): DAL 46 - 52.8 WPG. Rather low event game where WPG took advantage on the powerplay. EH Rolling Cumulative Corsi Chart (All Sit, No Adj): DAL 2.86 - 4.59 WPG. Much higher xG values on the shot attempts that were taken. WPG leading all game with DAL making a big push at the end.
May 16, 2025 at 4:49 AM
evolving-hockey.com
[very much wanting a game 7 from the second round]: C'mon let's go Winnipeg!
EH Game Prediction Chart - DAL 50.5% - 49.5%
May 15, 2025 at 9:41 AM
evolving-hockey.com
# - Big Release - #

Contract Projections for the 2025 NHL offseason are now live on the site for Pro subscribers. We even took the time to do a little write-up about this year's projections! Check it out.

Be safe and have fun.

evolving-hockey.com/blog/contrac...
A portion of the Evan Bouchard contract plot from the site. 8yr x $10.6M, 53.9% likelihood. Status: RFA, Age: 25, Position: D, Shoots: R, Signing with: Edmonton.
May 9, 2025 at 11:13 AM
evolving-hockey.com
Alright, we're ready for round two!
EH Game Projection: FLA 55.7% at 44.3% TOR FLA with the stronger skaters and Bobrovsky and in net TOR with much weaker skaters and Stolarz in net
May 5, 2025 at 10:59 AM
evolving-hockey.com
## ROUND 2 ##

The first round was phenomenal. Let's carry that into the second, eh? Our projections and previews for the second round series are up now.

I'm still thinking about that Jets game. Let's go.

evolving-hockey.com/blog/evolvin...
TOR (A1) / FLA (A3) 33.3 % - 66.6% FLA in six most likely outcome WSH (M1) / CAR (M2) 24.4% - 75.6% CAR in 5 or 6 most likely outcome (essentially tied) VGK (P1) / EDM (P3) 46.6% - 53.4% EDM in 6 most likely outcome WPG (C1) / DAL (C2) 44.9% - 55.1% DAL in 6 most likely outcome
May 5, 2025 at 10:12 AM
evolving-hockey.com
A game for the ages.

The Jets made a seemingly impossible comeback and Hellebuyck redeemed himself after a very shaky start. He ended with basically 0 GSAx this game.

You really can't get any better than this.
EH Rolling Win Probability Chart: STL 3 - 4 WPG WPG down below 20% for most of the game, dropping to 0.8% right before their 2nd goal. They tie it and it stays even through OT until WPG score in 2OT. EH Cumulative EV xGF Chart: STL 2.77 - 2.27 WPG. STL lead for the entire game - each team added xGF at a consistent level with WPG behind the whole game.
May 5, 2025 at 3:36 AM