@eviliggy.bsky.social
The evitablest ever, some are saying
January 13, 2026 at 3:44 AM
The evitablest ever, some are saying
He's not human. Only explanation.
December 27, 2025 at 11:48 PM
He's not human. Only explanation.
I was rooting for the Lions to pull this one out, but those penalties were all clear cut.
December 22, 2025 at 12:55 AM
I was rooting for the Lions to pull this one out, but those penalties were all clear cut.
Like Al would care
December 19, 2025 at 4:48 AM
Like Al would care
Answer this for me. Is the team likelier to get the 2 if they only try it on the second TD? If so, why? If not, then what do you gain by putting off finding out whether you've succeeded?
November 29, 2025 at 1:02 AM
Answer this for me. Is the team likelier to get the 2 if they only try it on the second TD? If so, why? If not, then what do you gain by putting off finding out whether you've succeeded?
Let's simplify. Pretend 1s are 100%, 2s are 50/50, second TD will happen.
1. 1 the first time. No onside kick, so 2nd TD most likely comes as time is expiring or close to it. 50% OT, 50% loss
2. 2 the 1st time. 50% OT, 50% down 9 with 3min left.
1. 1 the first time. No onside kick, so 2nd TD most likely comes as time is expiring or close to it. 50% OT, 50% loss
2. 2 the 1st time. 50% OT, 50% down 9 with 3min left.
November 29, 2025 at 12:59 AM
Let's simplify. Pretend 1s are 100%, 2s are 50/50, second TD will happen.
1. 1 the first time. No onside kick, so 2nd TD most likely comes as time is expiring or close to it. 50% OT, 50% loss
2. 2 the 1st time. 50% OT, 50% down 9 with 3min left.
1. 1 the first time. No onside kick, so 2nd TD most likely comes as time is expiring or close to it. 50% OT, 50% loss
2. 2 the 1st time. 50% OT, 50% down 9 with 3min left.
If you miss the two in your "take the 1", then the game is *over*. Down nine with three minutes sucks, but it's better than down 2 with 0 minutes left.
November 29, 2025 at 12:53 AM
If you miss the two in your "take the 1", then the game is *over*. Down nine with three minutes sucks, but it's better than down 2 with 0 minutes left.
You need the 2 at one point either way. It's only a one score game if you can get it.
November 29, 2025 at 12:52 AM
You need the 2 at one point either way. It's only a one score game if you can get it.
Ignoring missed kicks, there are two possibilities in a world where they get 2 TDs.
1. Score the 2
2. Fail the 2
If you score the 2, it doesn't matter if it's on the first or second TD.
If you fail the 2, you'd rather do it the first time so you can at least try for another possession.
1. Score the 2
2. Fail the 2
If you score the 2, it doesn't matter if it's on the first or second TD.
If you fail the 2, you'd rather do it the first time so you can at least try for another possession.
November 29, 2025 at 12:47 AM
Ignoring missed kicks, there are two possibilities in a world where they get 2 TDs.
1. Score the 2
2. Fail the 2
If you score the 2, it doesn't matter if it's on the first or second TD.
If you fail the 2, you'd rather do it the first time so you can at least try for another possession.
1. Score the 2
2. Fail the 2
If you score the 2, it doesn't matter if it's on the first or second TD.
If you fail the 2, you'd rather do it the first time so you can at least try for another possession.
It's only a one possession game if you make the kick. So... You're assuming it's automatic.
November 29, 2025 at 12:45 AM
It's only a one possession game if you make the kick. So... You're assuming it's automatic.
3B wouldn't be with 3 minutes. It would be with 0 minutes. How are you still not getting this very basic concept?
If you know for a fact that the first attempt will fail without knowing the second will, then sure, going for it is wrong. But you don't know that in advance.
If you know for a fact that the first attempt will fail without knowing the second will, then sure, going for it is wrong. But you don't know that in advance.
November 29, 2025 at 12:44 AM
3B wouldn't be with 3 minutes. It would be with 0 minutes. How are you still not getting this very basic concept?
If you know for a fact that the first attempt will fail without knowing the second will, then sure, going for it is wrong. But you don't know that in advance.
If you know for a fact that the first attempt will fail without knowing the second will, then sure, going for it is wrong. But you don't know that in advance.
Mind you, this all assumes that the PAT is automatic. Which, y'know, it isn't. For evidence of that, see... This game.
November 29, 2025 at 12:39 AM
Mind you, this all assumes that the PAT is automatic. Which, y'know, it isn't. For evidence of that, see... This game.
You seem to think that the odds of scoring the 2 are better on the second TD. You have yet to provide any evidence to support that idea.
November 29, 2025 at 12:38 AM
You seem to think that the odds of scoring the 2 are better on the second TD. You have yet to provide any evidence to support that idea.
1. Score the 2. Need a TD + PAT. Score again, OT.
2. Fail the 2. Need two scores, play accordingly.
3. Score the PAT. Need a TD + 2. Play for one score.
3A. Score the 2, OT
3B. Fail the 2, lose
1 and 3A are the same. 2 is better than 3B. Marginally, but better.
2. Fail the 2. Need two scores, play accordingly.
3. Score the PAT. Need a TD + 2. Play for one score.
3A. Score the 2, OT
3B. Fail the 2, lose
1 and 3A are the same. 2 is better than 3B. Marginally, but better.
November 29, 2025 at 12:37 AM
1. Score the 2. Need a TD + PAT. Score again, OT.
2. Fail the 2. Need two scores, play accordingly.
3. Score the PAT. Need a TD + 2. Play for one score.
3A. Score the 2, OT
3B. Fail the 2, lose
1 and 3A are the same. 2 is better than 3B. Marginally, but better.
2. Fail the 2. Need two scores, play accordingly.
3. Score the PAT. Need a TD + 2. Play for one score.
3A. Score the 2, OT
3B. Fail the 2, lose
1 and 3A are the same. 2 is better than 3B. Marginally, but better.
You're right. They should have kicked, and then kicked again if they scored a second time. Safer that way
November 29, 2025 at 12:13 AM
You're right. They should have kicked, and then kicked again if they scored a second time. Safer that way
You didn't know in advance that it would fail this time, either.
November 29, 2025 at 12:11 AM
You didn't know in advance that it would fail this time, either.
It's not, but I'm done trying to explain it to people who don't want to understand.
November 29, 2025 at 12:08 AM
It's not, but I'm done trying to explain it to people who don't want to understand.
You're wrong. Period.
If they get the 2, a kick ties it later. If they fail the 2, they know they need a third possession.
If they kick, they treat the remainder as a one score game. Failing the 2 means it's a loss at that point.
The odds of successfully getting the 2 are the same in both.
If they get the 2, a kick ties it later. If they fail the 2, they know they need a third possession.
If they kick, they treat the remainder as a one score game. Failing the 2 means it's a loss at that point.
The odds of successfully getting the 2 are the same in both.
November 29, 2025 at 12:08 AM
You're wrong. Period.
If they get the 2, a kick ties it later. If they fail the 2, they know they need a third possession.
If they kick, they treat the remainder as a one score game. Failing the 2 means it's a loss at that point.
The odds of successfully getting the 2 are the same in both.
If they get the 2, a kick ties it later. If they fail the 2, they know they need a third possession.
If they kick, they treat the remainder as a one score game. Failing the 2 means it's a loss at that point.
The odds of successfully getting the 2 are the same in both.
My math is just fine. I just understand that I'm operating with the knowledge that the two point attempt failed, whereas you seem to think it only fails if you try it the first time.
November 28, 2025 at 11:48 PM
My math is just fine. I just understand that I'm operating with the knowledge that the two point attempt failed, whereas you seem to think it only fails if you try it the first time.
Would you rather have a 1% chance of winning or a 0% chance of winning?
Remember, this comparison is based on the knowledge that the two point attempt failed. You don't get to assume it wouldn't have in the other scenario
Remember, this comparison is based on the knowledge that the two point attempt failed. You don't get to assume it wouldn't have in the other scenario
November 28, 2025 at 11:46 PM
Would you rather have a 1% chance of winning or a 0% chance of winning?
Remember, this comparison is based on the knowledge that the two point attempt failed. You don't get to assume it wouldn't have in the other scenario
Remember, this comparison is based on the knowledge that the two point attempt failed. You don't get to assume it wouldn't have in the other scenario
Then you're failing your daughter. It's only a one possession game if you can get the two pointer. The correct comparison is to a situation where they took the PAT, then failed a two pointer later
November 28, 2025 at 11:44 PM
Then you're failing your daughter. It's only a one possession game if you can get the two pointer. The correct comparison is to a situation where they took the PAT, then failed a two pointer later
It's a false equivalence. You're using the fact that you know the attempt failed in one while assuming it won't in the other.
November 28, 2025 at 11:35 PM
It's a false equivalence. You're using the fact that you know the attempt failed in one while assuming it won't in the other.
"I failed the two point conversion with three minutes left, so I'm probably going to lose."
vs.
"I failed the two point conversion with zero minutes left, so I've lost."
It's better to know early than to know late. This is an objective truth.
vs.
"I failed the two point conversion with zero minutes left, so I've lost."
It's better to know early than to know late. This is an objective truth.
November 28, 2025 at 11:30 PM
"I failed the two point conversion with three minutes left, so I'm probably going to lose."
vs.
"I failed the two point conversion with zero minutes left, so I've lost."
It's better to know early than to know late. This is an objective truth.
vs.
"I failed the two point conversion with zero minutes left, so I've lost."
It's better to know early than to know late. This is an objective truth.
On the contrary, it makes it even more right. When you have to have the 2, falling early instead of late tells you you'll need the extra possession. You're probably screwed anyway, but you're definitely screwed if you wait until the second score
November 28, 2025 at 10:59 PM
On the contrary, it makes it even more right. When you have to have the 2, falling early instead of late tells you you'll need the extra possession. You're probably screwed anyway, but you're definitely screwed if you wait until the second score
Guess Dan Quinn has been listening to the speech from Any Given Sunday a bit too often
October 14, 2025 at 1:13 AM
Guess Dan Quinn has been listening to the speech from Any Given Sunday a bit too often