Eva J. Koulouriotis | إيفا كولوريوتي
@evacool.bsky.social
Middle East Expert | Jihadist groups. Bylines @AFP @AP @AJArabic
@AlQudsAlarabi @The_NewArab @Syriawise @Arabnews @AlHurra.
For enquiries: contact@evakoulourioti.com
Web: www.evakoulourioti.com
@AlQudsAlarabi @The_NewArab @Syriawise @Arabnews @AlHurra.
For enquiries: contact@evakoulourioti.com
Web: www.evakoulourioti.com
A geopolitical and military analysis of the diplomatic and war options on the Lebanese-Israeli border.
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middleeastindepth.substack.com/p/diplomacy-...
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Diplomacy as a Prelude to War: The Strategic Chess Game Between Hezbollah, Israel, and Iran
While Egyptian officials are intensifying their communications with the Lebanese state, the latest of which was an emergency visit by the head of Egyptian intelligence, Hassan Rashad, to Beirut to mee...
middleeastindepth.substack.com
November 8, 2025 at 7:20 PM
A geopolitical and military analysis of the diplomatic and war options on the Lebanese-Israeli border.
Read more: 👇
middleeastindepth.substack.com/p/diplomacy-...
Read more: 👇
middleeastindepth.substack.com/p/diplomacy-...
more seriously, even if it leads to days of fighting. Between war and diplomacy, the Lebanese arena appears poised to dominate news headlines in the coming period.
November 8, 2025 at 7:20 PM
more seriously, even if it leads to days of fighting. Between war and diplomacy, the Lebanese arena appears poised to dominate news headlines in the coming period.
to Beirut to meet with Lebanese President Joseph Aoun to seek diplomatic solutions for the Lebanese-Israeli conflict, Israeli media and officials, most notably Netanyahu, are increasingly asserting that Hezbollah remains a threat to Israeli security and that this danger must be addressed
November 8, 2025 at 7:20 PM
to Beirut to meet with Lebanese President Joseph Aoun to seek diplomatic solutions for the Lebanese-Israeli conflict, Israeli media and officials, most notably Netanyahu, are increasingly asserting that Hezbollah remains a threat to Israeli security and that this danger must be addressed
Al-Sharaa, whom many agree that bases his international policy on openness and rapprochement with America, is visiting Russia at this time. A reading of the domestic, regional and international Syrian scene.
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middleeastindepth.substack.com/p/syria-afte...
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middleeastindepth.substack.com/p/syria-afte...
Syria After Assad: Governance, Security, and Diplomacy in Post-War Syria
Analyzing Al-Sharaa’s Emerging Strategy
middleeastindepth.substack.com
October 17, 2025 at 11:10 AM
Al-Sharaa, whom many agree that bases his international policy on openness and rapprochement with America, is visiting Russia at this time. A reading of the domestic, regional and international Syrian scene.
Read more 👇
middleeastindepth.substack.com/p/syria-afte...
Read more 👇
middleeastindepth.substack.com/p/syria-afte...
This visit comes at a timing that many observers consider confusing: Washington is seriously considering supplying Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine, while Trump declares that Putin does not want to stop the war.
October 17, 2025 at 11:10 AM
This visit comes at a timing that many observers consider confusing: Washington is seriously considering supplying Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine, while Trump declares that Putin does not want to stop the war.
case scenario in Lebanon. This fall will be as decisive for Hezbollah and Lebanon as the previous one. It will either mark the end of the Iranian project in Lebanon and then Iraq, or the beginning of a new civil war, or a new war along the Lebanese-Israeli border.
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August 19, 2025 at 8:09 PM
case scenario in Lebanon. This fall will be as decisive for Hezbollah and Lebanon as the previous one. It will either mark the end of the Iranian project in Lebanon and then Iraq, or the beginning of a new civil war, or a new war along the Lebanese-Israeli border.
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of returning to war is still on Netanyahu's table. As for the Arab world, Saudi Arabia is pushing to end Hezbollah, which is the most important supporter of the Houthi militia in Yemen, while working to support the new Syrian administration in Damascus in preparation for the worst-
August 19, 2025 at 8:09 PM
of returning to war is still on Netanyahu's table. As for the Arab world, Saudi Arabia is pushing to end Hezbollah, which is the most important supporter of the Houthi militia in Yemen, while working to support the new Syrian administration in Damascus in preparation for the worst-
Meanwhile, in Washington, the Lebanese file may become less important if the Lebanese government retreats, and the option of an economic sanctions and state isolation may be their pressure card. In Israel, officials are cautiously monitoring the Lebanese front, and the option
August 19, 2025 at 8:09 PM
Meanwhile, in Washington, the Lebanese file may become less important if the Lebanese government retreats, and the option of an economic sanctions and state isolation may be their pressure card. In Israel, officials are cautiously monitoring the Lebanese front, and the option
step will have a high price. In contrast, Hezbollah, for internal, religious, and Iranian reasons, has no room to give up its weapons, no matter the price. This reality means that one of the two parties will have to back down, with a high cost, or a clash is inevitable.
August 19, 2025 at 8:09 PM
step will have a high price. In contrast, Hezbollah, for internal, religious, and Iranian reasons, has no room to give up its weapons, no matter the price. This reality means that one of the two parties will have to back down, with a high cost, or a clash is inevitable.
The bottom line: Lebanon stands today at a crossroads walking on the brink of a civil war that will be more violent than any before. The Lebanese government has no choice but to move forward with the decision to rebuild the state by withdrawing illegal weapons. Backing down from this
August 19, 2025 at 8:09 PM
The bottom line: Lebanon stands today at a crossroads walking on the brink of a civil war that will be more violent than any before. The Lebanese government has no choice but to move forward with the decision to rebuild the state by withdrawing illegal weapons. Backing down from this
Scenario Six: The Lebanese army rushes to withdraw Hezbollah’s weapons, and Hezbollah responds with military force, sparking a new civil war in Lebanon.
August 19, 2025 at 8:09 PM
Scenario Six: The Lebanese army rushes to withdraw Hezbollah’s weapons, and Hezbollah responds with military force, sparking a new civil war in Lebanon.
By doing so, Hezbollah avoids confrontation with the Lebanese government and instead engages in a limited war with Israel that ends with an agreement.
August 19, 2025 at 8:09 PM
By doing so, Hezbollah avoids confrontation with the Lebanese government and instead engages in a limited war with Israel that ends with an agreement.
Scenario Five: Hezbollah chooses to confront Israel by launching a surprise attack similar to the events of the July 2006 war, attempting to capture Israeli soldiers.
August 19, 2025 at 8:09 PM
Scenario Five: Hezbollah chooses to confront Israel by launching a surprise attack similar to the events of the July 2006 war, attempting to capture Israeli soldiers.
This would mean a confrontation between the Lebanese army and Lebanon's Shia, posing a threat to Lebanon's unity and forcing the Lebanese state to back down from its decision to confront Hezbollah.
August 19, 2025 at 8:09 PM
This would mean a confrontation between the Lebanese army and Lebanon's Shia, posing a threat to Lebanon's unity and forcing the Lebanese state to back down from its decision to confront Hezbollah.
Scenario Four: The Lebanese army would launch a military attack on Hezbollah, leading to a Shia uprising in which the Amal Movement, led by Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, would participate, in a manner similar to the events of February 6, 1984.
August 19, 2025 at 8:09 PM
Scenario Four: The Lebanese army would launch a military attack on Hezbollah, leading to a Shia uprising in which the Amal Movement, led by Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, would participate, in a manner similar to the events of February 6, 1984.
Scenario Three: The Lebanese army will begin implementing the decision, leading to a military confrontation with Hezbollah that will result in casualties on both sides, prompting the Lebanese government to back down from its decision in order to avoid civil war.
August 19, 2025 at 8:09 PM
Scenario Three: The Lebanese army will begin implementing the decision, leading to a military confrontation with Hezbollah that will result in casualties on both sides, prompting the Lebanese government to back down from its decision in order to avoid civil war.
Thus, in order to avoid such an outcome, the Lebanese army leaders might reject the Lebanese government’s decision.
August 19, 2025 at 8:09 PM
Thus, in order to avoid such an outcome, the Lebanese army leaders might reject the Lebanese government’s decision.
split in 1975 under the leadership of First Lieutenant Ahmed Al-Khatib after the Shia in the Lebanese army refused orders to confront members of their own sect. This incident has recently been reminded to the Lebanese government by individuals close to Hezbollah.
August 19, 2025 at 8:09 PM
split in 1975 under the leadership of First Lieutenant Ahmed Al-Khatib after the Shia in the Lebanese army refused orders to confront members of their own sect. This incident has recently been reminded to the Lebanese government by individuals close to Hezbollah.
Scenario Two: The Lebanese army rejects the decision to engage in a military confrontation with Hezbollah, considering that this step might lead to a civil war and cause divisions within the Lebanese army itself. Looking back at Lebanon’s civil war, a part of the Lebanese army
August 19, 2025 at 8:09 PM
Scenario Two: The Lebanese army rejects the decision to engage in a military confrontation with Hezbollah, considering that this step might lead to a civil war and cause divisions within the Lebanese army itself. Looking back at Lebanon’s civil war, a part of the Lebanese army
This means that the Lebanese army will be forced to enter a military confrontation with the Palestinian militias in the camps, given their refusal to surrender their weapons. The army’s failure to take this step will mean that it will be unable to withdraw Hezbollah’s weapons.
August 19, 2025 at 8:09 PM
This means that the Lebanese army will be forced to enter a military confrontation with the Palestinian militias in the camps, given their refusal to surrender their weapons. The army’s failure to take this step will mean that it will be unable to withdraw Hezbollah’s weapons.
Scenario One: Hezbollah will continue to refuse to implement the decision and surrender its weapons, conditioning this on the prior disarmament of the Palestinian camps in order to buy time.
August 19, 2025 at 8:09 PM
Scenario One: Hezbollah will continue to refuse to implement the decision and surrender its weapons, conditioning this on the prior disarmament of the Palestinian camps in order to buy time.
north of the Awali River, then the Bekaa, and finally Beirut. This plan is theoretical. What are the scenarios we might witness in the next phase?
August 19, 2025 at 8:09 PM
north of the Awali River, then the Bekaa, and finally Beirut. This plan is theoretical. What are the scenarios we might witness in the next phase?
It is likely that the plan will be based on a geographical division of the operation, starting with the area south of the Litani River, which Hezbollah has agreed to evacuate, then the area between the Litani and Awali Rivers, then
August 19, 2025 at 8:09 PM
It is likely that the plan will be based on a geographical division of the operation, starting with the area south of the Litani River, which Hezbollah has agreed to evacuate, then the area between the Litani and Awali Rivers, then