Why it matters?
These insights speak to how humans adapt when the unexpected becomes reality.

And they matter for macroeconomists studying economies after large, unanticipated shocks. (5/5)

The main takeaway: people are surprisingly good — on average — at adapting to new realities, combining pre- and post-shock information wisely. (4/5)

We test reverse Bayesianism — a framework where unforeseen events leave relative prior likelihoods unchanged.

Our experiments show:
🔹 If the new world resembles the old, people update gradually.
🔹 If a regime change is possible, they overhaul their entire model.
(3/5)

The paper asks: how do people update their beliefs when faced with events they never anticipated?
Bayesian learning dominates economics — but it says nothing about “unknown unknowns.” (2/5)

Yes, broadly speaking

Comunque è buono per tutti i nipoti del mondo

Investing in behavioral science is key to building smarter, more compassionate policy. Grateful to see programs like this shaping the next generation of changemakers, this is what exactly the world need.

I would be happy to be there as well, thanks

In the English translated version