Eric Van Nostrand
@ericvannostrand.bsky.social
Former Assistant Treasury Secretary for Economic Policy (acting) / Chief Treasury Economist, 2023-25. Before that: BlackRock investor, Obama CEA. Fan of inclusive growth and promoting American innovation.
Putin is still financing his aggression by selling oil to China, India, and others. But today, global oil oversupply gives the West the best opportunity it has had to hit Russian oil while minimizing spillover risk to consumers. I wrote in @wsj.com: www.wsj.com/opinion/oil-...
Opinion | Oil Sanctions Would Hit Russia Harder Now Than in 2022
Demand is growing slowly while supply is increasing faster than usual. That’s bad news for Putin.
www.wsj.com
May 14, 2025 at 10:36 PM
Putin is still financing his aggression by selling oil to China, India, and others. But today, global oil oversupply gives the West the best opportunity it has had to hit Russian oil while minimizing spillover risk to consumers. I wrote in @wsj.com: www.wsj.com/opinion/oil-...
Reposted by Eric Van Nostrand
Important @ericvannostrand.bsky.social oped in the NYT documenting how Trump's tariffs deter investment.
www.nytimes.com/2025/04/15/o...
www.nytimes.com/2025/04/15/o...
Opinion | Trump’s Tariffs Are Bad for Business Investment
Even with his 90-day pause, the president’s approach doesn’t encourage companies to invest.
www.nytimes.com
April 15, 2025 at 9:06 PM
Important @ericvannostrand.bsky.social oped in the NYT documenting how Trump's tariffs deter investment.
www.nytimes.com/2025/04/15/o...
www.nytimes.com/2025/04/15/o...
Reposted by Eric Van Nostrand
“When corporate leaders can be reasonably confident that the business climate isn’t subject to a drastic policy shift, like revved-up tariffs, they’re more likely to invest,” @ericvannostrand.bsky.social writes. “Trump’s existing and threatened tariffs undermine these conditions.”
Opinion | Trump’s Tariffs Are Bad for Business Investment
Even with his 90-day pause, the president’s approach doesn’t encourage companies to invest.
www.nytimes.com
April 15, 2025 at 7:35 PM
“When corporate leaders can be reasonably confident that the business climate isn’t subject to a drastic policy shift, like revved-up tariffs, they’re more likely to invest,” @ericvannostrand.bsky.social writes. “Trump’s existing and threatened tariffs undermine these conditions.”
Current tariff policy is already undermining domestic business investment — the very thing it is supposed to promote. I wrote in @nytimes.com:
www.nytimes.com/2025/04/15/o...
www.nytimes.com/2025/04/15/o...
Opinion | Trump’s Tariffs Are Bad for Business Investment
Even with his 90-day pause, the president’s approach doesn’t encourage companies to invest.
www.nytimes.com
April 15, 2025 at 3:04 PM
Current tariff policy is already undermining domestic business investment — the very thing it is supposed to promote. I wrote in @nytimes.com:
www.nytimes.com/2025/04/15/o...
www.nytimes.com/2025/04/15/o...
Best piece of economic data this week: the great @avivaaron-dine.bsky.social will be an impactful voice promoting inclusive growth in the United States and relentlessly honest rigor in policy analysis more generally.
We are excited to welcome @avivaaron-dine.bsky.social as the next director of The Hamilton Project.
Aviva has engaged with a broad portfolio of policy issues, most recently as acting assistant secretary for tax policy at Treasury, equipping her lead The Hamilton Project during this critical time.
Aviva has engaged with a broad portfolio of policy issues, most recently as acting assistant secretary for tax policy at Treasury, equipping her lead The Hamilton Project during this critical time.
March 18, 2025 at 12:02 AM
Best piece of economic data this week: the great @avivaaron-dine.bsky.social will be an impactful voice promoting inclusive growth in the United States and relentlessly honest rigor in policy analysis more generally.
Reposted by Eric Van Nostrand
A terrific contribution to the growing discourse on building more by @briancdeese.bsky.social. His discussion of a "infrastructure-industrial complex" resonates w/ me having tried but large failed to nibble around the edges of it during the Obama infra bill. www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
March 13, 2025 at 2:58 PM
A terrific contribution to the growing discourse on building more by @briancdeese.bsky.social. His discussion of a "infrastructure-industrial complex" resonates w/ me having tried but large failed to nibble around the edges of it during the Obama infra bill. www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
Reposted by Eric Van Nostrand
I worry that many large endowment and pension fund managers won't get the joke.
March 11, 2025 at 3:05 PM
I worry that many large endowment and pension fund managers won't get the joke.
And I agree with @zliscow.bsky.social that deploying infra investment at low points in the business cycle would be more impactful for real outcomes than when demand is surging.
BTW, important to be clear about lessons for the future. Eric & I think the BIL was more successful than J&Z do. But it would have been better without high inflation. Going forward, we agree that investment should incorporate supply expansion: cutting red tape & making it easier to build.
22/23
22/23
March 3, 2025 at 10:21 PM
And I agree with @zliscow.bsky.social that deploying infra investment at low points in the business cycle would be more impactful for real outcomes than when demand is surging.
Even when we stop talking about deflator choices (which I’ll find sad), the big q is what lessons we can learn for future policy. I agree with @jasonfurman.bsky.social that including supply expansion in future infra bills (cutting red tape and making it easier to permit and build) is key.
BTW, important to be clear about lessons for the future. Eric & I think the BIL was more successful than J&Z do. But it would have been better without high inflation. Going forward, we agree that investment should incorporate supply expansion: cutting red tape & making it easier to build.
22/23
22/23
March 3, 2025 at 10:19 PM
Even when we stop talking about deflator choices (which I’ll find sad), the big q is what lessons we can learn for future policy. I agree with @jasonfurman.bsky.social that including supply expansion in future infra bills (cutting red tape and making it easier to permit and build) is key.
I co-sign all of this and am grateful to @jasonfurman.bsky.social and @zliscow.bsky.social, from whom I’ve learned much over many years, for the engagement. It’s obvious that inflation reduced the impact of BIL investments. But this thread explains why we think that effect is smaller than J&Z do.
@jasonfurman.bsky.social & @zliscow.bsky.social have responded to the piece on real infrastructure investment @ericvannostrand.bsky.social & I wrote in @briefingbook.bsky.social (links at end). We always learn a ton from J&Z, & this is no exception. They engage w/ thoughtful, data-driven pts.
1/23
1/23
March 3, 2025 at 10:18 PM
I co-sign all of this and am grateful to @jasonfurman.bsky.social and @zliscow.bsky.social, from whom I’ve learned much over many years, for the engagement. It’s obvious that inflation reduced the impact of BIL investments. But this thread explains why we think that effect is smaller than J&Z do.
Reposted by Eric Van Nostrand
Given the renewed interest in national income accounting a brief primer on the role of government spending in GDP.
Short version: (1) critical to include govt for accounting identities but (2) can debate welfare-relevant metric or best forecasting "signal".
A 🧵.
Short version: (1) critical to include govt for accounting identities but (2) can debate welfare-relevant metric or best forecasting "signal".
A 🧵.
March 3, 2025 at 7:01 PM
Given the renewed interest in national income accounting a brief primer on the role of government spending in GDP.
Short version: (1) critical to include govt for accounting identities but (2) can debate welfare-relevant metric or best forecasting "signal".
A 🧵.
Short version: (1) critical to include govt for accounting identities but (2) can debate welfare-relevant metric or best forecasting "signal".
A 🧵.
U.S. businesses want to produce more clean energy and the Admin says no. This is a new supply constraint created by fiat to slow clean investment: the opposite of a pro-growth approach. We need less red tape and easier permitting for all kinds of energy production.
www.wsj.com/business/ene...
www.wsj.com/business/ene...
Trump Paralyzes the U.S. Wind Power Industry
The president, who despises wind turbines, has paused federal permits and leasing for such projects, putting company plans in limbo.
www.wsj.com
February 23, 2025 at 8:14 PM
U.S. businesses want to produce more clean energy and the Admin says no. This is a new supply constraint created by fiat to slow clean investment: the opposite of a pro-growth approach. We need less red tape and easier permitting for all kinds of energy production.
www.wsj.com/business/ene...
www.wsj.com/business/ene...
Reposted by Eric Van Nostrand
🚨NEW RESULTS (w/ Slattery & @wnober.bsky.social) When gov't engineers retire, projects take longer & costs (& cost overruns) go up. It’s harder to manage projects well w/ reduced staffing. Important to remember as DOGE cuts: reduced staffing can actually hurt efficiency.
Paper: tinyurl.com/yvy2jt93
Paper: tinyurl.com/yvy2jt93
February 21, 2025 at 4:50 PM
🚨NEW RESULTS (w/ Slattery & @wnober.bsky.social) When gov't engineers retire, projects take longer & costs (& cost overruns) go up. It’s harder to manage projects well w/ reduced staffing. Important to remember as DOGE cuts: reduced staffing can actually hurt efficiency.
Paper: tinyurl.com/yvy2jt93
Paper: tinyurl.com/yvy2jt93
Reposted by Eric Van Nostrand
@ericvannostrand.bsky.social & I are in @briefingbook.bsky.social on infrastructure.
Last week, @jasonfurman.bsky.social argued that real US infrastructure investment has fallen since the pandemic.
Eric & I find however that using BEA’s deflator, real highway spending is up 11% since 2019.
1/11
Last week, @jasonfurman.bsky.social argued that real US infrastructure investment has fallen since the pandemic.
Eric & I find however that using BEA’s deflator, real highway spending is up 11% since 2019.
1/11
February 19, 2025 at 2:48 PM
@ericvannostrand.bsky.social & I are in @briefingbook.bsky.social on infrastructure.
Last week, @jasonfurman.bsky.social argued that real US infrastructure investment has fallen since the pandemic.
Eric & I find however that using BEA’s deflator, real highway spending is up 11% since 2019.
1/11
Last week, @jasonfurman.bsky.social argued that real US infrastructure investment has fallen since the pandemic.
Eric & I find however that using BEA’s deflator, real highway spending is up 11% since 2019.
1/11
In the last few days of Janet Yellen’s Treasury, my amazing team at the Office of Economic Policy published a retrospective on the U.S. recovery that unified much of our earlier work. But the Trump Treasury purged it. Here’s a Wayback Machine link: web.archive.org/web/20250117...
The U.S. Post-Pandemic Recovery in Context
I. IntroductionAs we approach the fifth anniversary of the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, the United States is experiencing robust economic growth and low unemployment. At the same time, inflation is...
web.archive.org
February 20, 2025 at 12:29 AM
In the last few days of Janet Yellen’s Treasury, my amazing team at the Office of Economic Policy published a retrospective on the U.S. recovery that unified much of our earlier work. But the Trump Treasury purged it. Here’s a Wayback Machine link: web.archive.org/web/20250117...
There’s a broader lesson in this piece from @ernietedeschi.bsky.social and me: wonkery that sounds like hair-splitting (which price index to use) can have big implications for macro conclusions (did infrastructure investment go way up or down?). The details matter for the big picture.
@ericvannostrand.bsky.social & I are in @briefingbook.bsky.social on infrastructure.
Last week, @jasonfurman.bsky.social argued that real US infrastructure investment has fallen since the pandemic.
Eric & I find however that using BEA’s deflator, real highway spending is up 11% since 2019.
1/11
Last week, @jasonfurman.bsky.social argued that real US infrastructure investment has fallen since the pandemic.
Eric & I find however that using BEA’s deflator, real highway spending is up 11% since 2019.
1/11
February 19, 2025 at 9:11 PM
There’s a broader lesson in this piece from @ernietedeschi.bsky.social and me: wonkery that sounds like hair-splitting (which price index to use) can have big implications for macro conclusions (did infrastructure investment go way up or down?). The details matter for the big picture.