That’s it, just sharing what I’m seeing. Trade safe.

Scenario 2 – Breakout:
If we somehow punch through and close convincingly clear this resistance, the next real ceiling is up around 26 256 (Fib extension + previous structure).

Nothing is guaranteed, obviously, but the risk/reward on fades looks a lot cleaner to me than chasing strength here.

Scenario 1 – Rejection:
If price gets turned back at current levels (~25 600 zone), next meaningful support sits around 23 060 (the rising 200-day MA). If that fails too, the deeper demand zone comes in near 20 335.

On the chart I marked in red the zones where I’d be looking to lighten up or short, and in blue the areas where I’d start buying again if we get there.

Both Stochastic and RSI are into overbought territory right now (top panel). Not saying the sky is falling, just saying the probabilities definitely tilt toward rejection when we get there.

Sanctions still hurt, no question, but they’re not the instant-kill button they used to be. Every year it gets harder to scare people into following Washington’s rules when there’s a whole other bloc offering a workaround.

Feels like we’re watching the end of an era in real time, man.

On top of that, pretty much all the rare-earth stuff ==> the metals you need for missiles, fighter jets, iPhones, laptops, everything, etc is now controlled by China and the rest of the BRICS crew. Good luck making cutting them off without screwing our own supply chains.

Then you look at the numbers: something like 7–7.5 trillion dollars just sitting in foreign central banks as reserves. If countries really stop needing dollars to pay for energy and commodities, what the hell are they gonna do with all those greenbacks? Dump them? Sit on them forever?

After that, veryone started buying oil in rupees, rubles, whatever… and suddenly the petrodollar isn’t the only game in town anymore. That system held the dollar up for like nothing else, and now it’s cracking.