Eric Schneider
@ericbschneider.bsky.social
Professor of Economic History at LSE studying health, demography, living standards and economic growth; working on global historical child stunting.
Website: www.ericbschneider.com
Website: www.ericbschneider.com
Whether you’re in economics, history, demography, or sociology — this is a chance to explore how global census microdata can power your research.
Find out more about the LSE Historical Economic Demography Group @lseechist.bsky.social here: www.lse.ac.uk/Economic-His...
Find out more about the LSE Historical Economic Demography Group @lseechist.bsky.social here: www.lse.ac.uk/Economic-His...
www.lse.ac.uk
November 5, 2025 at 9:52 PM
Whether you’re in economics, history, demography, or sociology — this is a chance to explore how global census microdata can power your research.
Find out more about the LSE Historical Economic Demography Group @lseechist.bsky.social here: www.lse.ac.uk/Economic-His...
Find out more about the LSE Historical Economic Demography Group @lseechist.bsky.social here: www.lse.ac.uk/Economic-His...
The event features the IPUMS team @ipums.bsky.social + scholars using census data in innovative ways:
👤 @msaleh-econhistory.bsky.social — 19th-century Egyptian censuses.
👤 @julianajaramilloe.bsky.social — Fertility decline in Colombia.
👤 @hggaddy.bsky.social — Study of polygamy across 30 countries.
👤 @msaleh-econhistory.bsky.social — 19th-century Egyptian censuses.
👤 @julianajaramilloe.bsky.social — Fertility decline in Colombia.
👤 @hggaddy.bsky.social — Study of polygamy across 30 countries.
November 5, 2025 at 9:52 PM
The event features the IPUMS team @ipums.bsky.social + scholars using census data in innovative ways:
👤 @msaleh-econhistory.bsky.social — 19th-century Egyptian censuses.
👤 @julianajaramilloe.bsky.social — Fertility decline in Colombia.
👤 @hggaddy.bsky.social — Study of polygamy across 30 countries.
👤 @msaleh-econhistory.bsky.social — 19th-century Egyptian censuses.
👤 @julianajaramilloe.bsky.social — Fertility decline in Colombia.
👤 @hggaddy.bsky.social — Study of polygamy across 30 countries.
Sign up to attend online or see the full seminar schedule here:
sites.google.com/view/londonp...
Organised by LSE's Pop@LSE and Historical Economic Demography Research Groups, LSHTM's Population Studies Group @psglshtm.bsky.social, and UCL's Centre for Longitudinal Studies @clscohorts.bsky.social.
sites.google.com/view/londonp...
Organised by LSE's Pop@LSE and Historical Economic Demography Research Groups, LSHTM's Population Studies Group @psglshtm.bsky.social, and UCL's Centre for Longitudinal Studies @clscohorts.bsky.social.
LondonPopSeminar
About the Seminar Series
The London Universities Population Seminar Series is a collaboration between the population groups at the London School of Economics and Political Science, the London School ...
sites.google.com
October 21, 2025 at 4:48 PM
Sign up to attend online or see the full seminar schedule here:
sites.google.com/view/londonp...
Organised by LSE's Pop@LSE and Historical Economic Demography Research Groups, LSHTM's Population Studies Group @psglshtm.bsky.social, and UCL's Centre for Longitudinal Studies @clscohorts.bsky.social.
sites.google.com/view/londonp...
Organised by LSE's Pop@LSE and Historical Economic Demography Research Groups, LSHTM's Population Studies Group @psglshtm.bsky.social, and UCL's Centre for Longitudinal Studies @clscohorts.bsky.social.
🚨 Bottom line: The oft-cited 20–30% CFR for Variola major doesn't hold up across time and place.
We argue for a more nuanced, historically grounded view—context matters.
📄 Read the full paper here: www.lse.ac.uk/Economic-His...
6/6
We argue for a more nuanced, historically grounded view—context matters.
📄 Read the full paper here: www.lse.ac.uk/Economic-His...
6/6
www.lse.ac.uk
May 13, 2025 at 7:25 PM
🚨 Bottom line: The oft-cited 20–30% CFR for Variola major doesn't hold up across time and place.
We argue for a more nuanced, historically grounded view—context matters.
📄 Read the full paper here: www.lse.ac.uk/Economic-His...
6/6
We argue for a more nuanced, historically grounded view—context matters.
📄 Read the full paper here: www.lse.ac.uk/Economic-His...
6/6
So why is the consensus CFR (20-30%) for endemic smallpox too high?
Three factors likely biased estimates of CFRs upwards:
1) Under-reporting of smallpox cases
2) Positive selection into vaccination after 1796
3) Selection of severe smallpox cases into hospital samples used to estimate CFRs
5/6
Three factors likely biased estimates of CFRs upwards:
1) Under-reporting of smallpox cases
2) Positive selection into vaccination after 1796
3) Selection of severe smallpox cases into hospital samples used to estimate CFRs
5/6
May 13, 2025 at 7:25 PM
So why is the consensus CFR (20-30%) for endemic smallpox too high?
Three factors likely biased estimates of CFRs upwards:
1) Under-reporting of smallpox cases
2) Positive selection into vaccination after 1796
3) Selection of severe smallpox cases into hospital samples used to estimate CFRs
5/6
Three factors likely biased estimates of CFRs upwards:
1) Under-reporting of smallpox cases
2) Positive selection into vaccination after 1796
3) Selection of severe smallpox cases into hospital samples used to estimate CFRs
5/6
Our findings suggest that smallpox’s lethality wasn’t just about the virus—it was about context.
When adults and children were sick together, there was no one to fetch water, cook food or nurse the sick. High CFRs often reflect crisis conditions, not just the innate virulence of the pathogen.
4/6
When adults and children were sick together, there was no one to fetch water, cook food or nurse the sick. High CFRs often reflect crisis conditions, not just the innate virulence of the pathogen.
4/6
May 13, 2025 at 7:25 PM
Our findings suggest that smallpox’s lethality wasn’t just about the virus—it was about context.
When adults and children were sick together, there was no one to fetch water, cook food or nurse the sick. High CFRs often reflect crisis conditions, not just the innate virulence of the pathogen.
4/6
When adults and children were sick together, there was no one to fetch water, cook food or nurse the sick. High CFRs often reflect crisis conditions, not just the innate virulence of the pathogen.
4/6
Why the such different CFRs?
In endemic settings like Sweden, smallpox was a childhood disease and adults very rarely contracted smallpox.
But in Iceland, the epidemic struck a population where both adults and children were susceptible. This raised the CFR dramatically.
3/6
In endemic settings like Sweden, smallpox was a childhood disease and adults very rarely contracted smallpox.
But in Iceland, the epidemic struck a population where both adults and children were susceptible. This raised the CFR dramatically.
3/6
May 13, 2025 at 7:25 PM
Why the such different CFRs?
In endemic settings like Sweden, smallpox was a childhood disease and adults very rarely contracted smallpox.
But in Iceland, the epidemic struck a population where both adults and children were susceptible. This raised the CFR dramatically.
3/6
In endemic settings like Sweden, smallpox was a childhood disease and adults very rarely contracted smallpox.
But in Iceland, the epidemic struck a population where both adults and children were susceptible. This raised the CFR dramatically.
3/6
Using high-quality mortality records, we estimate smallpox CFRs in two very different contexts:
📍 18th-century Sweden (endemic smallpox): CFR ~8–10%
📍 1707-9 Iceland smallpox epidemic: CFR ~40–53%
2/6
📍 18th-century Sweden (endemic smallpox): CFR ~8–10%
📍 1707-9 Iceland smallpox epidemic: CFR ~40–53%
2/6
May 13, 2025 at 7:25 PM
Using high-quality mortality records, we estimate smallpox CFRs in two very different contexts:
📍 18th-century Sweden (endemic smallpox): CFR ~8–10%
📍 1707-9 Iceland smallpox epidemic: CFR ~40–53%
2/6
📍 18th-century Sweden (endemic smallpox): CFR ~8–10%
📍 1707-9 Iceland smallpox epidemic: CFR ~40–53%
2/6