No, this is before retaliation. We also caveat that we don’t incorporate the additional economic costs of trade policy uncertainty or broader harms of starting a global trade war.

No, tariffs wouldn’t have a positive effect, and I’d hesitate to call this minimal. Measured as economic harm per dollar of revenue raised, tariffs are a very inefficient tax. Currency appreciation doesn’t make tariffs free, it shifts who bears the burden from importers to exporters.

Tariffs are a tax increase that reduce after-tax incomes.

Whether they have an impact on the consumer price level depends on whether the Fed loosens monetary policy to accommodate the short-term transition to the new equilibrium with tariffs.

Yeah, they also happen to be our three largest export markets. Exporters will feel the pain even before considering potential retaliation.

Thanks!