This work is the output of the excellent Honors thesis from Ariane Bussières-Fournel, and for now, you can read all about it in @ecoevorxiv.bsky.social -- ecoevorxiv.org/repository/v...

This is because, although both species respond to, more or less, the same climatic variables, they respond to them differently. The potential to see their responses to climate change becoming decoupled is real!

Habitat becomes increasingly polarized in its suitability to either reservoir, with raccoons benefiting the most from more pessimistic scenarios: the places in which we expect the two reservoirs are different over time, and different under the four scenarios.

Long-story short, both species will gain potential habitat in the North, and this does not really slow down unless we manage to stick to SSP2-RCP4.5. Even SSP1-RCP2.6 is a fairly dramatic increase in potential habitat. Most densely inhabited areas in Québec are reached by 2100.