Chris Turnbull
@enemyinastate.bsky.social
Journalist @Enemy In A State. "Gutter Journo" who, unfortunately, has to report from the gutter, as that's where 99.9% of politicians dwell patreon.com/c/EnemyInAState265
Good work - carry on.
December 7, 2024 at 1:36 PM
Good work - carry on.
I used to have a virus basically every week from September through to May before I started making for Covid - through doing this I've driven it near zero and that's in a country where we've also had years of unbridled Covid (and everything else) spread.
December 6, 2024 at 11:56 PM
I used to have a virus basically every week from September through to May before I started making for Covid - through doing this I've driven it near zero and that's in a country where we've also had years of unbridled Covid (and everything else) spread.
Typically these studies vastly underestimate the effectiveness - but from my own experience (and likely many others in Covid aware world) I have to say that for me N95 masking has cut my own virial infections to near zero over the years we've been doing this thing.
December 6, 2024 at 11:56 PM
Typically these studies vastly underestimate the effectiveness - but from my own experience (and likely many others in Covid aware world) I have to say that for me N95 masking has cut my own virial infections to near zero over the years we've been doing this thing.
And by actually endemic I mean that the virus flares up occasionally but is quickly stopped as there's just not enough infections and opportunities to keep it spreading.
December 6, 2024 at 11:56 PM
And by actually endemic I mean that the virus flares up occasionally but is quickly stopped as there's just not enough infections and opportunities to keep it spreading.
Basically the more N95s the less virus there is around and so the chances of getting infected keep dropping and could be driven to near zero levels - or what we could call actually endemic.
bsky.app/profile/enem...
bsky.app/profile/enem...
New Study Shows That 'Stopping Universal Masking & SARS-CoV-2 Testing In Hospitals Led To Surge' In Hospital Acquired Airborne Infections From Covid To Flu To RSV...
When masks were reinstated INFECTIONS again significantly dropped...
Masks work.
When masks were reinstated INFECTIONS again significantly dropped...
Masks work.
December 6, 2024 at 11:56 PM
Basically the more N95s the less virus there is around and so the chances of getting infected keep dropping and could be driven to near zero levels - or what we could call actually endemic.
bsky.app/profile/enem...
bsky.app/profile/enem...
Of course, this study is looking at population level effects - rather than individual ones.
On the individual level we know that N95 masks are 'near perfect' at stopping infection:
bsky.app/profile/enem...
On the individual level we know that N95 masks are 'near perfect' at stopping infection:
bsky.app/profile/enem...
(Another) Study Shows N95 Masks Are Near Perfect At Blocking Covid #XEC
December 6, 2024 at 11:54 PM
Of course, this study is looking at population level effects - rather than individual ones.
On the individual level we know that N95 masks are 'near perfect' at stopping infection:
bsky.app/profile/enem...
On the individual level we know that N95 masks are 'near perfect' at stopping infection:
bsky.app/profile/enem...
The paper is about how to significantly reduce Covid transmission and shows how it can be done NOW with N95 masks.
Study link: journals.aps.org/pre/abstract...
Study link: journals.aps.org/pre/abstract...
Estimating the population-level effects of nonpharmaceutical interventions when transmission rates of COVID-19 vary by orders of magnitude from one contact to another
Statistical physicists have long studied systems where the variable of interest spans many orders of magnitude, the classic example is the relaxation times of glassy materials, which are often found t...
journals.aps.org
December 6, 2024 at 11:52 PM
The paper is about how to significantly reduce Covid transmission and shows how it can be done NOW with N95 masks.
Study link: journals.aps.org/pre/abstract...
Study link: journals.aps.org/pre/abstract...
'I have focused on one NPI for airborne transmission: masks/respirators.Another NPI is improving indoor air quality,as Morawska et al.[31] have recently called for. My model suggests that,for example, doubling the rate of turnover of air should reduce transmission by approximately 1 − 1/√2 ∼ 30%.'
![I have focused on one NPI for airborne transmission: masks/respirators. Another NPI is improving indoor air quality, as Morawska et al. [31] have recently called for. My model suggests that, for example, doubling the rate of turnover of air should reduce transmission by approximately 1 − 1/√2 ∼ 30%. This estimate is highly approximate but as obtaining population-level data on the effect of NPIs is so hard to do, this estimate may still be useful. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS.](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:cnl2cn2dkfcq54go255nxhbc/bafkreiglpkfaxvnek3jdvjwsz2drvtqgloh6ekqtmee3vtg7xtbojog6k4@jpeg)
December 6, 2024 at 11:52 PM
'I have focused on one NPI for airborne transmission: masks/respirators.Another NPI is improving indoor air quality,as Morawska et al.[31] have recently called for. My model suggests that,for example, doubling the rate of turnover of air should reduce transmission by approximately 1 − 1/√2 ∼ 30%.'
'Mask use reduces the inhaled doses and so scales up the time needed for transmission, such that a smaller fraction of contacts are long enough for transmission.'
December 6, 2024 at 11:52 PM
'Mask use reduces the inhaled doses and so scales up the time needed for transmission, such that a smaller fraction of contacts are long enough for transmission.'
Essentially this is telling us how the virus could - combined with clean air, testing, isolation etc, drive the virus down to near-zero levels:
December 6, 2024 at 11:52 PM
Essentially this is telling us how the virus could - combined with clean air, testing, isolation etc, drive the virus down to near-zero levels:
As the author themselves who is a computational physicist says in their conclusion:
'I have predicted that for a population like that of the UK, wearing FFP2/N95-type masks should reduce the effective reproduction number R by a factor of nine'
'I have predicted that for a population like that of the UK, wearing FFP2/N95-type masks should reduce the effective reproduction number R by a factor of nine'
December 6, 2024 at 11:52 PM
As the author themselves who is a computational physicist says in their conclusion:
'I have predicted that for a population like that of the UK, wearing FFP2/N95-type masks should reduce the effective reproduction number R by a factor of nine'
'I have predicted that for a population like that of the UK, wearing FFP2/N95-type masks should reduce the effective reproduction number R by a factor of nine'
..Also shown are predictions for PT when one susceptible person wears a surgical mask (green dashed), one person wears an FFP2/N95 (orange dashed), when the whole population wears surgical masks (solid green), and when the population wears FFP2/N95s (solid orange)'
December 6, 2024 at 11:52 PM
..Also shown are predictions for PT when one susceptible person wears a surgical mask (green dashed), one person wears an FFP2/N95 (orange dashed), when the whole population wears surgical masks (solid green), and when the population wears FFP2/N95s (solid orange)'
...also fitted a power law to data and found the same value for the exponent β. Data has dynamic range of three decades in time (minutes to tens of hours)....
December 6, 2024 at 11:52 PM
...also fitted a power law to data and found the same value for the exponent β. Data has dynamic range of three decades in time (minutes to tens of hours)....
...[22], using data from UK’s COVID-19 app [21]. Fit (blue) is obtained by fitting a straight line to logs of the data, and fit parameters are slope (exponent) 0.47 ± 0.01 and intercept −3.6. R2 = 0.996. Ferretti et al. [22]...
December 6, 2024 at 11:52 PM
...[22], using data from UK’s COVID-19 app [21]. Fit (blue) is obtained by fitting a straight line to logs of the data, and fit parameters are slope (exponent) 0.47 ± 0.01 and intercept −3.6. R2 = 0.996. Ferretti et al. [22]...
Chart from the study showing the effects of various interventions of reducing spread of the virus:
'Plot of the probability of transmission of COVID-19, as a function of the length of contact time [23]. The blue points are data from the work of Ferretti et al...
'Plot of the probability of transmission of COVID-19, as a function of the length of contact time [23]. The blue points are data from the work of Ferretti et al...
December 6, 2024 at 11:48 PM
Chart from the study showing the effects of various interventions of reducing spread of the virus:
'Plot of the probability of transmission of COVID-19, as a function of the length of contact time [23]. The blue points are data from the work of Ferretti et al...
'Plot of the probability of transmission of COVID-19, as a function of the length of contact time [23]. The blue points are data from the work of Ferretti et al...
......person with high genetic susceptibility to infection. In panel (b) the transmission rate r is much lower. There the infected person has much less virus (lower viral load) and the susceptible person is across a well ventilated room from the infected person.'
December 6, 2024 at 11:48 PM
......person with high genetic susceptibility to infection. In panel (b) the transmission rate r is much lower. There the infected person has much less virus (lower viral load) and the susceptible person is across a well ventilated room from the infected person.'
...The droplets are then carried by air currents toward a susceptible person, who inhales them and becomes infected [3–5,8]. In panel (a) the rate of transmission r is high because an infected person with a high viral load is close to and talking with a susceptible...
December 6, 2024 at 11:48 PM
...The droplets are then carried by air currents toward a susceptible person, who inhales them and becomes infected [3–5,8]. In panel (a) the rate of transmission r is high because an infected person with a high viral load is close to and talking with a susceptible...
...The evidence is that the transmission of COVID-19 is at least predominantly across the air [3–9]: an infected person breathes out the SARS-CoV-2 virus in an aerosol of droplets of mucus that contain the virus...
December 6, 2024 at 11:48 PM
...The evidence is that the transmission of COVID-19 is at least predominantly across the air [3–9]: an infected person breathes out the SARS-CoV-2 virus in an aerosol of droplets of mucus that contain the virus...
Or to be more precise: Study shows that N95 masks reduce Covid transmission by at least 9x.
Anyway: from the study:
'Pair of schematics showing two possible contacts between an infected person (I, left) and a susceptible person (S, right)...
Anyway: from the study:
'Pair of schematics showing two possible contacts between an infected person (I, left) and a susceptible person (S, right)...
December 6, 2024 at 11:48 PM
Or to be more precise: Study shows that N95 masks reduce Covid transmission by at least 9x.
Anyway: from the study:
'Pair of schematics showing two possible contacts between an infected person (I, left) and a susceptible person (S, right)...
Anyway: from the study:
'Pair of schematics showing two possible contacts between an infected person (I, left) and a susceptible person (S, right)...
The study has recently been featured by Nature journal which has given it the headline:
'What if everyone had masked up?'
Setting it in the past tense, when of course it should be in present tense because the pandemic is STILL RAGING.
'What if everyone masked up now?'
'What if everyone had masked up?'
Setting it in the past tense, when of course it should be in present tense because the pandemic is STILL RAGING.
'What if everyone masked up now?'
December 6, 2024 at 11:48 PM
The study has recently been featured by Nature journal which has given it the headline:
'What if everyone had masked up?'
Setting it in the past tense, when of course it should be in present tense because the pandemic is STILL RAGING.
'What if everyone masked up now?'
'What if everyone had masked up?'
Setting it in the past tense, when of course it should be in present tense because the pandemic is STILL RAGING.
'What if everyone masked up now?'
The present study used data from the UK's Covid App to find out that using FFP2/N95 masks reduces transmission of the virus by nearly 10x:
December 6, 2024 at 11:46 PM
The present study used data from the UK's Covid App to find out that using FFP2/N95 masks reduces transmission of the virus by nearly 10x:
2/ And yes it is from 2021. pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34560443/
High intelligence may exacerbate paediatric inflammatory response to SARS-CoV-2 infection - PubMed
The body's innate and acquiredimmunesystems are critical in responses to a wide spectrum of assaults, including SARS-CoV-2 infection. We identify studies of autoimmunity to support our hypothesis that...
pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
December 5, 2024 at 10:23 AM
2/ And yes it is from 2021. pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34560443/
I think given the nature of it and the fact it violates many dogmas the research has not been followed up.
The study forms their hypothesis using relevant data and sources etc: I wouldn't call it meta level though.
The study forms their hypothesis using relevant data and sources etc: I wouldn't call it meta level though.
December 5, 2024 at 10:22 AM
I think given the nature of it and the fact it violates many dogmas the research has not been followed up.
The study forms their hypothesis using relevant data and sources etc: I wouldn't call it meta level though.
The study forms their hypothesis using relevant data and sources etc: I wouldn't call it meta level though.