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In sum, local elections do matter for childcare expansion in Germany. At the same time, local fiscal constraints translate into lower childcare provision, and into reduced access to childcare – despite the existence of a federal legal entitlement n/n

Does all this still matter in the more recent time of skill shortages/Fachkräftemangel? It does: Childcare expansion comes at the cost of more children per staff – but only in fiscally disadvantaged districts. The consequences of skill shortages will be particularly pronounced in these districts 9/n

At the same time, higher fees for low-income families tend to be associated with lower coverage rates. Again, this association does not apply to middle- and high-income families 8/n

For 47 large municipalities, we show that fees for low-income families remain at higher levels in fiscally disadvantaged municipalities. Notably, we find no such associations for high-income families, although the revenue that could be generated would be much higher 7/n

How do local governments reconcile insufficient levels of childcare provision with the legal entitlement? We argue that by deciding on the level and structure of childcare fees, local governments, deliberately or not, shape the demand, and with this the accessibility of childcare 6/n

In particular in districts with high levels of liquidity debt (Kassenkredite), coverage rates remain at lower levels. In such contexts, left-wing government partisanship has been insufficient to close the gap with fiscally better endowed districts 5/n
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...

Focusing on childcare coverage rates in the more recent past (2019), we see that the effect of government partisanship is conditional on local fiscal conditions. Left-wing governments in the preceding years are associated with higher coverage only in districts with sound fiscal conditions 4/n

Controlling for a range of additional variables, we find that left-wing local governments (SPD, Greens) expanded childcare more than right-wing governments (CDU, CSU, FDP) between 2007 and 2019 in the West German districts 3/n

Years after a legal entitlement to childcare has been introduced, we still see substantial regional variation in childcare coverage rates. This variation does not simply reflect urban-rural divides or differences in female employment rates 2/n

We conclude that voters´ perceptions of the seeming importance of wage competitiveness may contribute to the political stabilization of export-led growth models, despite the often sobering economic outcomes of stagnating economic growth and rising inequality. 2/2