Gregory Smith
@emsovdebt.bsky.social
Emerging markets investing. Manager @IFC.org. Econ PhD. Was EM bond investor @bondvigilantes. Author of Africa debt book: Where Credit is Due.
This one makes me happy. S&P finally see sense and upgrade Sri Lanka. www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/r...
www.spglobal.com
September 19, 2025 at 3:12 PM
This one makes me happy. S&P finally see sense and upgrade Sri Lanka. www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/r...
www.bloomberg.com
September 6, 2025 at 4:35 AM
Reposted by Gregory Smith
The muted market reaction to The Crazy doesn't tell you much about what will happen. Markets almost *never* react in advance to large but only potential disruptions. paulkrugman.substack.com/p/why-arent-...
Why Aren’t Markets Freaking Out?
Of Trump, Keynes and Wile E. Coyote
paulkrugman.substack.com
August 28, 2025 at 4:09 PM
The muted market reaction to The Crazy doesn't tell you much about what will happen. Markets almost *never* react in advance to large but only potential disruptions. paulkrugman.substack.com/p/why-arent-...
IMF; “Contrary to perception, countries in the region have often been able to stabilize or reduce their debt ratios without debt restructuring.”
www.imf.org/en/News/Arti...
www.imf.org/en/News/Arti...
How to Stabilize Africa’s Debt
Successful debt stabilization requires measures to strengthen public finances and institutions, alongside pro-growth structural reforms and a sound macroeconomic environment
www.imf.org
July 25, 2025 at 2:55 AM
IMF; “Contrary to perception, countries in the region have often been able to stabilize or reduce their debt ratios without debt restructuring.”
www.imf.org/en/News/Arti...
www.imf.org/en/News/Arti...
Reposted by Gregory Smith
Good to see some African equity markets powering ahead this year:
Egypt +16% in US dollars
Nigeria +22% in US dollars
Kenya +39% and
Morocco up 45% (I didn't expect that)
Africa, like much of EM, does well when the $ is weak .. and when Trump isn't paying them much attention
Egypt +16% in US dollars
Nigeria +22% in US dollars
Kenya +39% and
Morocco up 45% (I didn't expect that)
Africa, like much of EM, does well when the $ is weak .. and when Trump isn't paying them much attention
July 8, 2025 at 1:52 PM
Good to see some African equity markets powering ahead this year:
Egypt +16% in US dollars
Nigeria +22% in US dollars
Kenya +39% and
Morocco up 45% (I didn't expect that)
Africa, like much of EM, does well when the $ is weak .. and when Trump isn't paying them much attention
Egypt +16% in US dollars
Nigeria +22% in US dollars
Kenya +39% and
Morocco up 45% (I didn't expect that)
Africa, like much of EM, does well when the $ is weak .. and when Trump isn't paying them much attention
Lumpy census data driving the larger African moves. Sad for Namibia (but blog says was due to 2023 census result that recorded popn up 13.8%. GDP up 3.7% in 2024). Conversely Cabo Verde (growing well) saw 12.8% decline in the measure of popn); gets them promoted. Seychelles still high income 💪.
The new World Bank income classifications are out. blogs.worldbank.org/en/opendata/...
July 2, 2025 at 12:37 PM
Lumpy census data driving the larger African moves. Sad for Namibia (but blog says was due to 2023 census result that recorded popn up 13.8%. GDP up 3.7% in 2024). Conversely Cabo Verde (growing well) saw 12.8% decline in the measure of popn); gets them promoted. Seychelles still high income 💪.
Reposted by Gregory Smith
The new World Bank income classifications are out. blogs.worldbank.org/en/opendata/...
July 1, 2025 at 5:17 PM
The new World Bank income classifications are out. blogs.worldbank.org/en/opendata/...
Never knew he was born in Mazabuka. Zambia, then Zimbabwe, then on to economic greatness.
June 1, 2025 at 2:25 PM
Never knew he was born in Mazabuka. Zambia, then Zimbabwe, then on to economic greatness.
Reposted by Gregory Smith
The FT going hard right now.
April 15, 2025 at 7:09 PM
The FT going hard right now.
Reposted by Gregory Smith
Positive surprise (for me) with Fitch upgrading Nigeria’s sovereign rating
Completely agree that major reforms have greatly improved Nigeria’s credit worthiness
Surprise because of oil dropping into the 60s, and oil production at 1.5 mn, and elections in 2027
www.fitchratings.com/research/sov...
Completely agree that major reforms have greatly improved Nigeria’s credit worthiness
Surprise because of oil dropping into the 60s, and oil production at 1.5 mn, and elections in 2027
www.fitchratings.com/research/sov...
www.fitchratings.com
April 13, 2025 at 9:36 AM
Positive surprise (for me) with Fitch upgrading Nigeria’s sovereign rating
Completely agree that major reforms have greatly improved Nigeria’s credit worthiness
Surprise because of oil dropping into the 60s, and oil production at 1.5 mn, and elections in 2027
www.fitchratings.com/research/sov...
Completely agree that major reforms have greatly improved Nigeria’s credit worthiness
Surprise because of oil dropping into the 60s, and oil production at 1.5 mn, and elections in 2027
www.fitchratings.com/research/sov...
Reposted by Gregory Smith
Historic times for trade, literally
April 3, 2025 at 2:42 AM
Historic times for trade, literally
Seems like the IMF liked the Sri Lanka budget. Their board calendar:
February 18, 2025 at 9:00 AM
Seems like the IMF liked the Sri Lanka budget. Their board calendar:
Reposted by Gregory Smith
What better cause for an inaugural post - #debtcon8 links are all below. Submit, y’all!
www.law.georgetown.edu/iiel/initiat...
www.law.georgetown.edu/iiel/initiat...
January 28, 2025 at 7:03 PM
What better cause for an inaugural post - #debtcon8 links are all below. Submit, y’all!
www.law.georgetown.edu/iiel/initiat...
www.law.georgetown.edu/iiel/initiat...
Great turnout at the Sri Lanka economic submit this evening. Should be with President AKD presenting on transformational growth. Feels like business community have full confidence in the objectives.
January 28, 2025 at 12:47 PM
Great turnout at the Sri Lanka economic submit this evening. Should be with President AKD presenting on transformational growth. Feels like business community have full confidence in the objectives.
Good FT read: How Pakistan’s military is taking over its economy on.ft.com/4hbriif
How Pakistan’s military is taking over its economy
The country’s armed forces have become intimately involved in everything from canal projects to energy contracts. Investors are increasingly nervous
on.ft.com
January 28, 2025 at 7:32 AM
Good FT read: How Pakistan’s military is taking over its economy on.ft.com/4hbriif
An economically dynamic India is Manmohan Singh’s greatest legacy
January 7, 2025 at 6:27 PM
An economically dynamic India is Manmohan Singh’s greatest legacy
Reposted by Gregory Smith
Great anecdote here from former FT editor Richard Lambert on the time Manmohan Singh came to the FT to talk with him and Martin Wolf. H/T @andymukherjee70.bsky.social
December 31, 2024 at 10:03 AM
Great anecdote here from former FT editor Richard Lambert on the time Manmohan Singh came to the FT to talk with him and Martin Wolf. H/T @andymukherjee70.bsky.social
Good FT piece on 2024’s elections. A story of losing share.
Behind India’s majority-losing-election is a rise in youth unemployment
I like an ‘in 6 charts’ article on.ft.com/4fDS0OQ
Behind India’s majority-losing-election is a rise in youth unemployment
I like an ‘in 6 charts’ article on.ft.com/4fDS0OQ
December 30, 2024 at 7:27 AM
Good FT piece on 2024’s elections. A story of losing share.
Behind India’s majority-losing-election is a rise in youth unemployment
I like an ‘in 6 charts’ article on.ft.com/4fDS0OQ
Behind India’s majority-losing-election is a rise in youth unemployment
I like an ‘in 6 charts’ article on.ft.com/4fDS0OQ
An upgrade to CCC+ on new bond day for Sri Lanka www.fitchratings.com/research/sov...
www.fitchratings.com
December 20, 2024 at 8:11 PM
An upgrade to CCC+ on new bond day for Sri Lanka www.fitchratings.com/research/sov...
For Pakistan to march back to single-B some fitness gains are needed. This should be a clear target destination for the next 2-3 years.
Great to spend a few days in Islamabad and discuss the path to a better sovereign credit rating with government.
Great to spend a few days in Islamabad and discuss the path to a better sovereign credit rating with government.
December 18, 2024 at 9:32 AM
For Pakistan to march back to single-B some fitness gains are needed. This should be a clear target destination for the next 2-3 years.
Great to spend a few days in Islamabad and discuss the path to a better sovereign credit rating with government.
Great to spend a few days in Islamabad and discuss the path to a better sovereign credit rating with government.
More strong recovery growth for Sri Lanka 💪 5.5% in Q3 24
www.linkedin.com/posts/sujeet...
www.linkedin.com/posts/sujeet...
Sujeetha Jegajeevan, PhD on LinkedIn: GDP
The economy has grown by 5.5% in 2024Q3.
Further analysis by the Economic Research Department is attached.
www.linkedin.com
December 17, 2024 at 11:30 AM
More strong recovery growth for Sri Lanka 💪 5.5% in Q3 24
www.linkedin.com/posts/sujeet...
www.linkedin.com/posts/sujeet...
"Bonds have won wars and broken countries. They have funded hospitals, slave-worked tobacco farms and sugar plantations. They’re now bankrolling the data centres and chips that power artificial intelligence, as well as more obvious boondoggles, like Manchester United."
[Robbie Williams voice] "And through it all, it has kept paying interest" ... on.ft.com/3OQkmL1
Happy 400th birthday to the world’s oldest bond
🎂
on.ft.com
December 12, 2024 at 4:21 AM
"Bonds have won wars and broken countries. They have funded hospitals, slave-worked tobacco farms and sugar plantations. They’re now bankrolling the data centres and chips that power artificial intelligence, as well as more obvious boondoggles, like Manchester United."
www.worldbank.org/en/news/stat...
With $100 billion of affordable financing in the tank the World Bank’s IDA is ready to go again.
World Bank is able to leverage all $24bn of donor dollars 3.5 to 4 times 💪.
With $100 billion of affordable financing in the tank the World Bank’s IDA is ready to go again.
World Bank is able to leverage all $24bn of donor dollars 3.5 to 4 times 💪.
An Open Letter on IDA21 to Our Shareholders, Clients, Partners, and the Global Development Community
An Open Letter on IDA21 to Our Shareholders, Clients, Partners, and the Global Development Community
www.worldbank.org
December 9, 2024 at 10:33 AM
www.worldbank.org/en/news/stat...
With $100 billion of affordable financing in the tank the World Bank’s IDA is ready to go again.
World Bank is able to leverage all $24bn of donor dollars 3.5 to 4 times 💪.
With $100 billion of affordable financing in the tank the World Bank’s IDA is ready to go again.
World Bank is able to leverage all $24bn of donor dollars 3.5 to 4 times 💪.
What will African Eurobond issuance look like in 2025? 🧵 ramble. Thoughts appreciated. In summary: Issuance still expensive, but mat wall looks climbable, as was in 2024. Should see $8-11bn vs ~$10bn maturing.
December 3, 2024 at 9:07 AM
What will African Eurobond issuance look like in 2025? 🧵 ramble. Thoughts appreciated. In summary: Issuance still expensive, but mat wall looks climbable, as was in 2024. Should see $8-11bn vs ~$10bn maturing.