Emma McIntosh
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emmamci.bsky.social
Emma McIntosh
@emmamci.bsky.social
11K followers 790 following 160 posts
Investigations @thestar.com. Formerly @thenarwhal.ca. Fan of FOI and lake swims. Hosted Paydirt, a podcast miniseries about the Greenbelt scandal. Signal: emmamci.76
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emmamci.bsky.social
Thanks Jimmy!!
October 17, 2025 at 2:46 PM
emmamci.bsky.social
psssst also if you're hitting the paywall, the Star's work is available for free through the Toronto Public Library! this work is not free to produce, so thank you to the many readers who support our work and make reporting like this possible
October 17, 2025 at 2:46 PM
emmamci.bsky.social
Polling is a political world -- but when it comes to pollster connections with parties, how close is too close? And what kind of vetting and disclosure should media and polling aggregators be doing before publishing their results?
www.thestar.com/news/investi...
A ‘jaw-dropper’ poll showed surging support for an Alberta separatist party. Turns out the polling firm and the party weren’t so separate
The Alberta Republican Party leader previously had an ownership stake in the same polling company that reported support for his new party was surging.
www.thestar.com
October 17, 2025 at 2:46 PM
emmamci.bsky.social
And many Albertans will know Davies for his role in the 2019 kamikaze scandal, for which he was fined $27k by Elections Alberta.
October 17, 2025 at 2:46 PM
emmamci.bsky.social
Fric, a former NDP candidate, runs a very popular X account called Polling Canada and writes a bit for 338Canada.

His work at Cardinal Research has been picked up by 338 and by CBC's polling aggregator. Cardinal has also polled recently on the the Calgary/Edmonton mayoral races
Phillippe J. Fournier, the editor in chief of 338Canada, told the Star he was aware of Cardinal Research’s connection to Davies and scrutinizes its polls accordingly. 338Canada gives the firm a relatively low rating, which means its results sway the site’s projections less than other pollsters. “If I see that the numbers are trying to not measure the narrative, but drive the narrative, I would certainly call them out,” Fournier said, adding that he hasn’t seen reason to distrust Cardinal’s work so far. The firm’s finding of higher levels of support for the Alberta Republican Party was “maybe a tad high, but it’s not implausible,” he said, noting that it hasn’t been confirmed by other pollsters yet. “I know Curtis (Fric), and he told me ‘I’m the one doing the numbers, and nobody else.’ And so his word was good enough for me, because I’ve known him online for years, and we spoke on the phone a few times. He’s extremely diligent with his work.” When it was released in September, Cardinal’s Alberta poll didn’t set off red flags for Grenier of the Writ. New pollsters are always treated with skepticism, he says. But elections are the only real test of a pollster’s accuracy, he says, and Cardinal had “okay results” in some recent provincial races and their methodology in Alberta seemed reasonable, Grenier said. Their results also seemed “plausible,” given the RPA’s showing in recent byelections. Grenier worked on CBC’s Poll Tracker for the 2025 federal election and included a Cardinal survey in the model. CBC spokesperson Chuck Thompson said the broadcaster only adds polls to its tracker if they were commissioned by media outlets or independently self-commissioned by polling firms, and that it weights them based on the track record of the pollster. “Polls commissioned by political parties, interest groups or advocacy organizations are excluded,” Thompson said in an email. “Irrespective of any ownership ties, this poll met that criteria.” Thompson did not answer when asked whether CBC will include Cardinal’s polls in the future.
October 17, 2025 at 2:46 PM
emmamci.bsky.social
Corporate records show Cardinal Research was incorporated as a trade name of one of Davies' companies back in 2024. Davies confirmed the connection to the Star, then later appeared to try to walk it back.

Cardinal's lead researcher Curtis Fric denied it outright.
Davies said that prior to the sale, he was only “loosely involved” with Cardinal and played no role in Cardinal Research’s surveys. Those operations were led, Davies said, by a “very sharp gentleman” named Curtis Fric, Cardinal’s Ontario-based lead researcher and the public face of the polling firm. In an earlier interview with the Star, Fric had denied any connection between Cardinal Research and Davies or the Alberta Republican Party. He did not answer followup questions about the apparent discrepancy between his account and the one later given by Davies.
October 17, 2025 at 2:46 PM
emmamci.bsky.social
Thanks to those who reached out! West Coast Blue Jays fans debate trip to Seattle for ALCS as trade war with U.S. looms www.thestar.com/sports/blue-...
West Coast Blue Jays fans debate trip to Seattle for ALCS as trade war with U.S. looms
Blue Jays fans always show up when they play the Mariners in Seattle. Ahead of the ALCS matchup, some are more hesitant this time around.
www.thestar.com
October 11, 2025 at 8:47 PM
emmamci.bsky.social
I think a lot of people seem to be feeling that way! Would you be willing to talk more about this for the story I'm working on?
October 11, 2025 at 2:53 PM
emmamci.bsky.social
A lot of people seem to feel that way! Would you be interested in talking about it for this story I’m working on?
October 11, 2025 at 2:10 PM
emmamci.bsky.social
I hear you! Any chance you’re willing to talk about it for the story I’m working on?
October 11, 2025 at 2:09 PM
emmamci.bsky.social
Sent you a dm!
October 11, 2025 at 2:09 PM
emmamci.bsky.social
(and for paying for local news! especially for paying for local news!)
August 25, 2025 at 3:00 PM
emmamci.bsky.social
Thank you so much for reading!!
August 25, 2025 at 3:00 PM
emmamci.bsky.social
Our reporting on this is ongoing. Here’s how to reach me: emcintosh@thestar.ca, DMs open, signal username in bio
August 23, 2025 at 9:27 PM
emmamci.bsky.social
This story builds on reporting we published last weekend, see here:
bsky.app/profile/emma...
emmamci.bsky.social Emma McIntosh @emmamci.bsky.social · Aug 18
ICYMI, the Star published two Ontario Place investigations over the weekend

The first, from the excellent Ana Pereira and me: The Ford government touted Therme as a ‘world-class’ partner for Ontario Place. In Europe, ‘significant’ concerns have emerged over finances
www.thestar.com/news/investi...
The Ford government touted Therme as a ‘world-class’ partner for Ontario Place. In Europe, ‘significant’ concerns have emerged over finances
The warning is included in previously unreported audits. Therme says it doesn't reflect the strong financial footing of the global business.
www.thestar.com
August 23, 2025 at 9:26 PM
emmamci.bsky.social
Our reporting on Ontario Place is ongoing. Our inboxes are open for tips, mine is emcintosh@thestar.ca
August 18, 2025 at 12:30 PM
emmamci.bsky.social
The second, from Ana Pereira, @bkstar.bsky.social and me: a look inside the Ford government back in 2019 as it reviewed Therme's Ontario Place bid.

Government assessors worried it could be "high risk" and a "white elephant" but went ahead anyway.
www.thestar.com/news/gta/ins...
Inside the Ford government, there was worry the Ontario Place spa was ‘high risk.’ They signed a 95-year lease anyway
Officials questioned whether the spa could be a "white elephant," a term referencing something expensive to keep that offers little relative value.
www.thestar.com
August 18, 2025 at 12:30 PM