Hi Emilia, first let's not confuse me with Monash. Monash is not speaking, I am in my personal capacity. Second, I did say something; I said exactly what I know. Third as you know, I am not in the management line for this, but as noted here (and before) I have reported allegations to the uni.

I also personally sent a link to this thread to the university's Research Integrity office the next day, and I later sent links to two replication reports along with I4R contact details. The University processes currently underway are described here: publicpolicydms.monash.edu/Monash/docum...

I can confirm that this is being reviewed by appropriate Monash authorities. I saw the dean of the Monash Business School report this matter to the university on the same afternoon this thread was posted (24.2.2025 AEST).

Americans cannot legally bet on Polymarket. So, that works against both hypotheses to the extent that Americans care more or can profit more from election outcome. Betting on DJT stock is potentially cleaner from that aspect. DJT and election markets less correlated than one might think.

It pays people to register to vote, in the form of a lottery ticket. Seems that is also illegal.
electionlawblog.org?p=146397