Ellie likes data
@ellielikesdata.bsky.social
FDA has a list of 35 PFAS ingredients that companies add to cosmetics. I avoid these. Rulemaking was underway to remove them from the market, but that is now stalled. Many are present in makeup, haircare, and sunscreen.
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August 3, 2025 at 10:48 PM
FDA has a list of 35 PFAS ingredients that companies add to cosmetics. I avoid these. Rulemaking was underway to remove them from the market, but that is now stalled. Many are present in makeup, haircare, and sunscreen.
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The current administration makes the future of PFAS removal more concerning, as funding constraints on states and municipal budgets are delaying infrastructure projects. Testing and research funding has also been cut.
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August 3, 2025 at 10:48 PM
The current administration makes the future of PFAS removal more concerning, as funding constraints on states and municipal budgets are delaying infrastructure projects. Testing and research funding has also been cut.
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Even low-level PFAS exposure is linked to immunotoxicity in children. PFAS in pregnant women can increase blood pressure and result in low birth weight infants which leads to developmental disorders. PFAS can disrupt fertility, cause cancer, and disrupt hormone function.
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August 3, 2025 at 10:48 PM
Even low-level PFAS exposure is linked to immunotoxicity in children. PFAS in pregnant women can increase blood pressure and result in low birth weight infants which leads to developmental disorders. PFAS can disrupt fertility, cause cancer, and disrupt hormone function.
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PFAS degrades in the environment over time and the degraded form is easier for the body to absorb. A generation of neutral PFAS in our environment has now become more persistent and toxic ionic PFAS.
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August 3, 2025 at 10:48 PM
PFAS degrades in the environment over time and the degraded form is easier for the body to absorb. A generation of neutral PFAS in our environment has now become more persistent and toxic ionic PFAS.
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I've been involved lately in policy work regarding PFAS.
All local water sources are above state action levels, so we prioritize lower-contaminated sources and turn higher-contaminated sources off until needed.
We tell people not to worry—and we're wrong to do that.
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All local water sources are above state action levels, so we prioritize lower-contaminated sources and turn higher-contaminated sources off until needed.
We tell people not to worry—and we're wrong to do that.
🧵
August 3, 2025 at 10:48 PM
I've been involved lately in policy work regarding PFAS.
All local water sources are above state action levels, so we prioritize lower-contaminated sources and turn higher-contaminated sources off until needed.
We tell people not to worry—and we're wrong to do that.
🧵
All local water sources are above state action levels, so we prioritize lower-contaminated sources and turn higher-contaminated sources off until needed.
We tell people not to worry—and we're wrong to do that.
🧵
Gen X women? Cohort fertility remained above replacement for each birth year.
Millennials? Also on track if trends hold— despite a pandemic in the middle of their highest fertility windows. There is no reason to believe Gen Z will buck the trend, yet.
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Millennials? Also on track if trends hold— despite a pandemic in the middle of their highest fertility windows. There is no reason to believe Gen Z will buck the trend, yet.
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April 30, 2025 at 10:23 PM
Gen X women? Cohort fertility remained above replacement for each birth year.
Millennials? Also on track if trends hold— despite a pandemic in the middle of their highest fertility windows. There is no reason to believe Gen Z will buck the trend, yet.
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Millennials? Also on track if trends hold— despite a pandemic in the middle of their highest fertility windows. There is no reason to believe Gen Z will buck the trend, yet.
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The only time the actual expected number of children over a life course fell below replacement? Boomers.
Women born from 1952 thru 1962 did not hit replacement fertility while they were building the system they now say is "unsustainable."
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Women born from 1952 thru 1962 did not hit replacement fertility while they were building the system they now say is "unsustainable."
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April 30, 2025 at 10:23 PM
The only time the actual expected number of children over a life course fell below replacement? Boomers.
Women born from 1952 thru 1962 did not hit replacement fertility while they were building the system they now say is "unsustainable."
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Women born from 1952 thru 1962 did not hit replacement fertility while they were building the system they now say is "unsustainable."
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The Gross Reproduction Ratio accurately predicts population growth in a way TFR can't. GRR would track the probability of birth for a woman born in 1975 from 1990 thru 2019.
Better measures include mortality, but this is fine for modern, above 44 life expectancy.
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Better measures include mortality, but this is fine for modern, above 44 life expectancy.
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April 30, 2025 at 10:23 PM
The Gross Reproduction Ratio accurately predicts population growth in a way TFR can't. GRR would track the probability of birth for a woman born in 1975 from 1990 thru 2019.
Better measures include mortality, but this is fine for modern, above 44 life expectancy.
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Better measures include mortality, but this is fine for modern, above 44 life expectancy.
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Actual demographers measure fertility over a persons life. This tracks a cohort (birth year), not a single year. This is usually called Gross Reproduction Ratio.
GRR sums the probability a woman will give birth in each actual fertile year, ages 15-44.
(Boomer GRR shown below)
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GRR sums the probability a woman will give birth in each actual fertile year, ages 15-44.
(Boomer GRR shown below)
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April 30, 2025 at 10:23 PM
Actual demographers measure fertility over a persons life. This tracks a cohort (birth year), not a single year. This is usually called Gross Reproduction Ratio.
GRR sums the probability a woman will give birth in each actual fertile year, ages 15-44.
(Boomer GRR shown below)
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GRR sums the probability a woman will give birth in each actual fertile year, ages 15-44.
(Boomer GRR shown below)
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TFR is not the number of children a woman is expected to have in her lifetime— it’s a static measure from a given year. It doesn’t take into account age distribution of women or events in their life course: like putting off childbearing due to a recession or pandemic.
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April 30, 2025 at 10:23 PM
TFR is not the number of children a woman is expected to have in her lifetime— it’s a static measure from a given year. It doesn’t take into account age distribution of women or events in their life course: like putting off childbearing due to a recession or pandemic.
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Population doomers are bad at math.
The only population crisis the U.S. is facing was caused by Boomers not having enough kids (while cutting their own taxes).
Newsflash: Gen X and Millennial women have never fallen below replacement fertility— but Boomers never reached it.
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The only population crisis the U.S. is facing was caused by Boomers not having enough kids (while cutting their own taxes).
Newsflash: Gen X and Millennial women have never fallen below replacement fertility— but Boomers never reached it.
/🧵
April 30, 2025 at 10:23 PM
Population doomers are bad at math.
The only population crisis the U.S. is facing was caused by Boomers not having enough kids (while cutting their own taxes).
Newsflash: Gen X and Millennial women have never fallen below replacement fertility— but Boomers never reached it.
/🧵
The only population crisis the U.S. is facing was caused by Boomers not having enough kids (while cutting their own taxes).
Newsflash: Gen X and Millennial women have never fallen below replacement fertility— but Boomers never reached it.
/🧵
The CDC surveillance tracks 8-year-olds at specific sites. RFK Jr. is absurdly claiming IQ sample sizes smaller than 500 are representative.
This also doesn't reflect how special ed qualifications change the prevalence of diagnosis, you need Ed data.
But, there’s a problem—
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This also doesn't reflect how special ed qualifications change the prevalence of diagnosis, you need Ed data.
But, there’s a problem—
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April 17, 2025 at 11:29 PM
The CDC surveillance tracks 8-year-olds at specific sites. RFK Jr. is absurdly claiming IQ sample sizes smaller than 500 are representative.
This also doesn't reflect how special ed qualifications change the prevalence of diagnosis, you need Ed data.
But, there’s a problem—
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This also doesn't reflect how special ed qualifications change the prevalence of diagnosis, you need Ed data.
But, there’s a problem—
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What RFK Jr. calls an epidemic is actually a shift in classification.
We have data on disabled kids going back to 1867— Even with expanding inclusivity in classrooms, the prevalence of profoundly disabled kids has decreased, not increased, over the long and short term.
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We have data on disabled kids going back to 1867— Even with expanding inclusivity in classrooms, the prevalence of profoundly disabled kids has decreased, not increased, over the long and short term.
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April 17, 2025 at 11:29 PM
What RFK Jr. calls an epidemic is actually a shift in classification.
We have data on disabled kids going back to 1867— Even with expanding inclusivity in classrooms, the prevalence of profoundly disabled kids has decreased, not increased, over the long and short term.
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We have data on disabled kids going back to 1867— Even with expanding inclusivity in classrooms, the prevalence of profoundly disabled kids has decreased, not increased, over the long and short term.
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In fact, despite a bit of growing enrollment — the raw numbers and ratio of kids who require services and spend less than 80% of the day in a gen ed classroom IS LOWER.
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April 17, 2025 at 11:29 PM
In fact, despite a bit of growing enrollment — the raw numbers and ratio of kids who require services and spend less than 80% of the day in a gen ed classroom IS LOWER.
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Look at the Ed data from 1991–2022:
Autism inside general classes did increase, as did all other disabilities.
But as autism rates rose among profoundly disabled kids, emotional disturbance & intellectual disability declined.
The kids with severe disability are not new.
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Autism inside general classes did increase, as did all other disabilities.
But as autism rates rose among profoundly disabled kids, emotional disturbance & intellectual disability declined.
The kids with severe disability are not new.
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April 17, 2025 at 11:29 PM
Look at the Ed data from 1991–2022:
Autism inside general classes did increase, as did all other disabilities.
But as autism rates rose among profoundly disabled kids, emotional disturbance & intellectual disability declined.
The kids with severe disability are not new.
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Autism inside general classes did increase, as did all other disabilities.
But as autism rates rose among profoundly disabled kids, emotional disturbance & intellectual disability declined.
The kids with severe disability are not new.
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Then came the Great Recession. Budgets collapsed, so did IEP rates from 2005 and 2012, not because kids didn’t need services, but because schools couldn’t afford to give them. Parents turned to diagnosis from medical professionals to force the schools to provide services.
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April 17, 2025 at 11:29 PM
Then came the Great Recession. Budgets collapsed, so did IEP rates from 2005 and 2012, not because kids didn’t need services, but because schools couldn’t afford to give them. Parents turned to diagnosis from medical professionals to force the schools to provide services.
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In 1990, IDEA added autism as a qualifying conditions.
1991 data shows 39% of children with an Autism diagnosis were in a separate day or residential facility, 1% at home, 48% in a self-contained classroom, and **just 4%** spent most of the day with peers.
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1991 data shows 39% of children with an Autism diagnosis were in a separate day or residential facility, 1% at home, 48% in a self-contained classroom, and **just 4%** spent most of the day with peers.
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April 17, 2025 at 11:29 PM
In 1990, IDEA added autism as a qualifying conditions.
1991 data shows 39% of children with an Autism diagnosis were in a separate day or residential facility, 1% at home, 48% in a self-contained classroom, and **just 4%** spent most of the day with peers.
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1991 data shows 39% of children with an Autism diagnosis were in a separate day or residential facility, 1% at home, 48% in a self-contained classroom, and **just 4%** spent most of the day with peers.
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The Act only guaranteed services for children with specific disabilities: mentally retarded, hard of hearing, deaf, speech impaired, visually handicapped, seriously emotionally disturbed, crippled, health impaired, or with "specific learning disability".
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April 17, 2025 at 11:29 PM
The Act only guaranteed services for children with specific disabilities: mentally retarded, hard of hearing, deaf, speech impaired, visually handicapped, seriously emotionally disturbed, crippled, health impaired, or with "specific learning disability".
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In 1972, a report to Congress found 1.75 million disabled children weren’t in school at all and millions more were underserved. There was bipartisan support for legislation for a right to education for disabled children — Ford signed the All Handicapped Children Act in 1975.
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April 17, 2025 at 11:29 PM
In 1972, a report to Congress found 1.75 million disabled children weren’t in school at all and millions more were underserved. There was bipartisan support for legislation for a right to education for disabled children — Ford signed the All Handicapped Children Act in 1975.
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The number of profoundly disabled kids is actually decreasing.
RFK Jr. is misusing surveillance on autism to promote cruel conspiracy theories. What's worse is the CDC failed to look at public data—special education placement.
This isn't an epidemic, it's a change in classification.
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RFK Jr. is misusing surveillance on autism to promote cruel conspiracy theories. What's worse is the CDC failed to look at public data—special education placement.
This isn't an epidemic, it's a change in classification.
/🧵
April 17, 2025 at 11:29 PM
The number of profoundly disabled kids is actually decreasing.
RFK Jr. is misusing surveillance on autism to promote cruel conspiracy theories. What's worse is the CDC failed to look at public data—special education placement.
This isn't an epidemic, it's a change in classification.
/🧵
RFK Jr. is misusing surveillance on autism to promote cruel conspiracy theories. What's worse is the CDC failed to look at public data—special education placement.
This isn't an epidemic, it's a change in classification.
/🧵
The saddest thing for me— We won't have any of this ed info for 2025, because all the regional offices supplying the data were shut down.
There will be no student-teacher ratios, enrollment, test scores, teacher salaries, or IEP numbers published this year. They axed the staff.
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There will be no student-teacher ratios, enrollment, test scores, teacher salaries, or IEP numbers published this year. They axed the staff.
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March 18, 2025 at 4:42 AM
The saddest thing for me— We won't have any of this ed info for 2025, because all the regional offices supplying the data were shut down.
There will be no student-teacher ratios, enrollment, test scores, teacher salaries, or IEP numbers published this year. They axed the staff.
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There will be no student-teacher ratios, enrollment, test scores, teacher salaries, or IEP numbers published this year. They axed the staff.
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We've published ed statistics since 1867, what we measured is fascinating— corporal punishment, state child labor laws, # of books.
Reading these from 1902, you might think "homeschooling rights" were a holdover from when gilded age industrialists wanted kids in the factories.
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Reading these from 1902, you might think "homeschooling rights" were a holdover from when gilded age industrialists wanted kids in the factories.
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March 18, 2025 at 4:42 AM
We've published ed statistics since 1867, what we measured is fascinating— corporal punishment, state child labor laws, # of books.
Reading these from 1902, you might think "homeschooling rights" were a holdover from when gilded age industrialists wanted kids in the factories.
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Reading these from 1902, you might think "homeschooling rights" were a holdover from when gilded age industrialists wanted kids in the factories.
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The organized crime octopus doodle for the "Crime Control Center" of the IRS in 1970 is pretty cute.
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March 18, 2025 at 4:42 AM
The organized crime octopus doodle for the "Crime Control Center" of the IRS in 1970 is pretty cute.
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You can look at the official IRS Data Books from now going back to 1863.
They're incredible history, the copy was especially fun through various decades, and when it included what became the ATF.
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They're incredible history, the copy was especially fun through various decades, and when it included what became the ATF.
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March 18, 2025 at 4:42 AM
You can look at the official IRS Data Books from now going back to 1863.
They're incredible history, the copy was especially fun through various decades, and when it included what became the ATF.
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They're incredible history, the copy was especially fun through various decades, and when it included what became the ATF.
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You can find the annual FTE at the EPA, their budget, and all the programs they've had going back decades.
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March 18, 2025 at 4:42 AM
You can find the annual FTE at the EPA, their budget, and all the programs they've had going back decades.
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