Ellie Knott
@ellieknott.bsky.social
• Political scientist & Assoc Prof at Methodology, LSE
• identity & citizenship
• Moldova & Crimea 🇲🇩🇺🇦
• methodology & research ethics
• identity & citizenship
• Moldova & Crimea 🇲🇩🇺🇦
• methodology & research ethics
So, what else might be positively associated with support for Simion? Regions that supported Stoianoglo in R1 and R2 of the 2024 presidential elections are more likely regions with higher vote shares for Simion.
May 22, 2025 at 8:54 AM
So, what else might be positively associated with support for Simion? Regions that supported Stoianoglo in R1 and R2 of the 2024 presidential elections are more likely regions with higher vote shares for Simion.
What about Simion? Unsurprisingly, regions with a higher vote share for Simion are regions with a lower vote share for Sandu, and higher support for No in the EU referendum (statistically significant, p<0.001).
May 22, 2025 at 8:54 AM
What about Simion? Unsurprisingly, regions with a higher vote share for Simion are regions with a lower vote share for Sandu, and higher support for No in the EU referendum (statistically significant, p<0.001).
What happens if we map support for Dan against support for Sandu in 2024 and those who voted Yes in the 2024 EU referendum? Regions with a higher support for Sandu and higher Yes vote are regions which support Dan more in 2025, R1 and R2 (all statistically significant, p<0.01)
May 22, 2025 at 8:54 AM
What happens if we map support for Dan against support for Sandu in 2024 and those who voted Yes in the 2024 EU referendum? Regions with a higher support for Sandu and higher Yes vote are regions which support Dan more in 2025, R1 and R2 (all statistically significant, p<0.01)
Support for Simion is a bit more regional - lower in Chisinau, and the centre overall, higher in the northern and southern borders, and no massive increases between the first and second round.
May 22, 2025 at 8:54 AM
Support for Simion is a bit more regional - lower in Chisinau, and the centre overall, higher in the northern and southern borders, and no massive increases between the first and second round.
What do votes for Dan and Simion look like among Romanian citizens in Moldova? After all, 157,188 voters in Moldova participated in the second round of Romania's presidential elections.
Firstly, support for Dan is pretty constant across Moldova, as is his increasing support.
Firstly, support for Dan is pretty constant across Moldova, as is his increasing support.
May 22, 2025 at 8:54 AM
What do votes for Dan and Simion look like among Romanian citizens in Moldova? After all, 157,188 voters in Moldova participated in the second round of Romania's presidential elections.
Firstly, support for Dan is pretty constant across Moldova, as is his increasing support.
Firstly, support for Dan is pretty constant across Moldova, as is his increasing support.
There was this photo going round of Ponta and Lupu (🇲🇩) and people asking what decade this is. The reproduction of politics via the worst actors and the introduction of these newbies = eeeep 🤡
May 5, 2025 at 9:02 AM
There was this photo going round of Ponta and Lupu (🇲🇩) and people asking what decade this is. The reproduction of politics via the worst actors and the introduction of these newbies = eeeep 🤡
Nothing like trying to brand yourself as the "alternative" when we have among us:
- A former Voronin advisor who has been on PCRM party lists since 2001 (Mark Tcaciuc)
- A two-time deputy for PDM, vice president of the parliament, and 2024 PSRM presidential candidate (Alexandr Stoianoglo)
- A former Voronin advisor who has been on PCRM party lists since 2001 (Mark Tcaciuc)
- A two-time deputy for PDM, vice president of the parliament, and 2024 PSRM presidential candidate (Alexandr Stoianoglo)
March 16, 2025 at 6:44 PM
Nothing like trying to brand yourself as the "alternative" when we have among us:
- A former Voronin advisor who has been on PCRM party lists since 2001 (Mark Tcaciuc)
- A two-time deputy for PDM, vice president of the parliament, and 2024 PSRM presidential candidate (Alexandr Stoianoglo)
- A former Voronin advisor who has been on PCRM party lists since 2001 (Mark Tcaciuc)
- A two-time deputy for PDM, vice president of the parliament, and 2024 PSRM presidential candidate (Alexandr Stoianoglo)
📰 Exciting news: the Moldovan Analytical Digest will be launching in January 2025. The digest will be quarterly and analyzes the political, economic, and social situation in Moldova 🇲🇩 You can sign up here (for free): css.ethz.ch/en/publicati...
December 5, 2024 at 4:34 PM
📰 Exciting news: the Moldovan Analytical Digest will be launching in January 2025. The digest will be quarterly and analyzes the political, economic, and social situation in Moldova 🇲🇩 You can sign up here (for free): css.ethz.ch/en/publicati...
Iconic. Visit by David Lammy, UK foreign minister, and Luminița Odobescu, Romanian foreign minister, to Mihai Popșoi, Moldovan foreign minister.
November 21, 2024 at 10:33 AM
Iconic. Visit by David Lammy, UK foreign minister, and Luminița Odobescu, Romanian foreign minister, to Mihai Popșoi, Moldovan foreign minister.
We offer a strategy of reconceptualisation to help navigate around this conceptual misalignment. Reconceptualisation is a four-step process that helps us develop and iterate concepts, whether when we’re designing, conducting, or writing up research.
And it looks like this:
And it looks like this:
November 14, 2024 at 9:04 AM
We offer a strategy of reconceptualisation to help navigate around this conceptual misalignment. Reconceptualisation is a four-step process that helps us develop and iterate concepts, whether when we’re designing, conducting, or writing up research.
And it looks like this:
And it looks like this:
But I've left the best to last. I plotted support for Stoianoglo against the percent differences in voters turning out in R2 compared to R1. I then looked at outliers from the cluster along the bottom.
November 13, 2024 at 3:45 PM
But I've left the best to last. I plotted support for Stoianoglo against the percent differences in voters turning out in R2 compared to R1. I then looked at outliers from the cluster along the bottom.
These losses in the first round appear abated by gains in the second round, when comparing support for Dodon in the second round in 2020 and support for Stoianoglo in 2024. Crucially, we see Stoianoglo picking up votes in Orhei - the stomping ground of Shor and his cadres.
November 13, 2024 at 3:45 PM
These losses in the first round appear abated by gains in the second round, when comparing support for Dodon in the second round in 2020 and support for Stoianoglo in 2024. Crucially, we see Stoianoglo picking up votes in Orhei - the stomping ground of Shor and his cadres.
By contrast, we see quite a big difference between the percentage of votes for Dodon in 2020 and Stoianoglo in 2024, in round 1, especially in Transnistria and Taraclia.
November 13, 2024 at 3:42 PM
By contrast, we see quite a big difference between the percentage of votes for Dodon in 2020 and Stoianoglo in 2024, in round 1, especially in Transnistria and Taraclia.
Comparing the second round in 2020 and 2024, we see that Sandu lost votes pretty much everywhere, Orhei especially, but also in the north, e.g. Bălți, Drochia, Fălești, and in other border regions like Ungheni and Cahul.
November 13, 2024 at 3:42 PM
Comparing the second round in 2020 and 2024, we see that Sandu lost votes pretty much everywhere, Orhei especially, but also in the north, e.g. Bălți, Drochia, Fălești, and in other border regions like Ungheni and Cahul.
Back with some visual analysis of the second round of Moldova's presidential elections.
Comparing the first round in 2020 and 2024, we don't see many differences in the geography of Sandu's vote.
Comparing the first round in 2020 and 2024, we don't see many differences in the geography of Sandu's vote.
November 13, 2024 at 3:41 PM
Back with some visual analysis of the second round of Moldova's presidential elections.
Comparing the first round in 2020 and 2024, we don't see many differences in the geography of Sandu's vote.
Comparing the first round in 2020 and 2024, we don't see many differences in the geography of Sandu's vote.
i’m trying to find an original but this was pretty cool
November 7, 2024 at 5:14 PM
i’m trying to find an original but this was pretty cool
I can tell you who Jill Stein is and it's not good.
November 6, 2024 at 8:49 AM
I can tell you who Jill Stein is and it's not good.
The third map plots the difference in Usatîi support by region. I'm quite surprised to see his support down in every region. I would also point to the geographical change of Usatîi's votes - his biggest loss is in Bălți. I also recommend comparing the second and third map.
October 25, 2024 at 7:48 AM
The third map plots the difference in Usatîi support by region. I'm quite surprised to see his support down in every region. I would also point to the geographical change of Usatîi's votes - his biggest loss is in Bălți. I also recommend comparing the second and third map.
The second maps Usatîi voters per region - key since we are all asking who Usatîi voters will vote for in the second round
October 25, 2024 at 7:46 AM
The second maps Usatîi voters per region - key since we are all asking who Usatîi voters will vote for in the second round
One final map on the Moldovan elections, nah, let's make it three. The first maps the number of voters in the EU referendum as a percentage of voters in the first round of the presidential elections. #Moldova #alegerimoldova #moldovaelections
October 25, 2024 at 7:45 AM
One final map on the Moldovan elections, nah, let's make it three. The first maps the number of voters in the EU referendum as a percentage of voters in the first round of the presidential elections. #Moldova #alegerimoldova #moldovaelections
Two final graphs (for now): vote share of Stoianoglo vs support for Yes and vote share of Others vs support for Yes
October 21, 2024 at 3:13 PM
Two final graphs (for now): vote share of Stoianoglo vs support for Yes and vote share of Others vs support for Yes
Second, however, by region, there is more support for Yes than Sandu, in some regions by quite some margin. This isn't just about Orhei being bought by Shor.
October 21, 2024 at 3:12 PM
Second, however, by region, there is more support for Yes than Sandu, in some regions by quite some margin. This isn't just about Orhei being bought by Shor.
First, we see quite a nice trend between those voting for Sandu and voting yes in the EU referendum.
October 21, 2024 at 3:11 PM
First, we see quite a nice trend between those voting for Sandu and voting yes in the EU referendum.